Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and revolution in MENA

• I Wear Pants

  I really think the "people wanting more entitlements" reason for voting is quite overestimated by conservatives. I'm sure there were some but those were likely already the people drawing from those programs. I really don't think there were a lot of people who were already middle class or above going "yeah, now we can have more entitlements". They thought he offered a better plan at the time for what they considered the big issues. Which back then were the just coming into scope economic problems, and the two wars. They may have been right or wrong about him being the better option but I honestly believe that not too many voted for Obama because they wanted more entitlements. They may have wanted changes or expansions of some programs but that wasn't the driving point of them voting for him.
  
  Now someone please like that "obama is gonna pay for my gas, mortgage, boob jobs, etc" video and act like it means anything.
• CenterBHSFan

  

  How do we know what is possibly over/underestimated by conservatives? I don't know. We might see polls with some sampling, some that would prove a point and some that would undermine it. We might talk to friends and family and that's about it. But, who knows if I'm wrong or not. I gave several reasons why people (alot of people) might have voted for Obama/Biden and I think they are pretty legit arguments. Not sure I understand your point in your last sentence?
• I Wear Pants

  I meant "link". I figured someone would link that video as "proof" that I was wrong and loads of people voted for Obama to have the government pay for everything. I was preempting it.
• CenterBHSFan

  

  Ok, gotcha.
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  Since everyone is caught up in domestic stuff here, the Middle East is still in chaos.
  Protests in Libya have been brutal with hundreds dead and the military really cracking down. Qaddafi gave a speech today and it was classic Qaddafi, long and full of crazy talk. He said he was not stepping down, would die a martyr, that the protests were lead by drugs and Americans.
  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/22/AR2011022203488.html?nav=rss_email/components
  
  Bahrain has seen protests for days now, with the military cracking down, then letting up. The King says he is staying, but offered some changes. Protests continue though, and Formula One canceled their Grand Prix there next month. The Saudis are really paying attention to what happens, as any upheaval could spread to them.
  
  Yemen is still seeing protest, with the King saying he is staying. No reports of wide violence like Libya or Bahrain, but still people in the streets.
  
  Tunisia is still seeing protests as well with no real move toward a government. I saw a report where people are starting to resist the move to strict Islamic laws.
  
  Egypt is starting to slowly see a transition from the military, with candidates starting to apply for office, but there are protests still in other cities. An article in the Post today stated the Brotherhood will not put forth a candidate for President, and will only put forth at the most 25% of candidates for the new Parliament, which is about the national percentage for them.
  
  The region is still in upheaval, and wide change.
• 2quik4u

  

  ptown_trojans_1;687495 wrote:Since everyone is caught up in domestic stuff here, the Middle East is still in chaos.
  Protests in Libya have been brutal with hundreds dead and the military really cracking down. Qaddafi gave a speech today and it was classic Qaddafi, long and full of crazy talk. He said he was not stepping down, would die a martyr, that the protests were lead by drugs and Americans.
  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/22/AR2011022203488.html?nav=rss_email/components
  
  Bahrain has seen protests for days now, with the military cracking down, then letting up. The King says he is staying, but offered some changes. Protests continue though, and Formula One canceled their Grand Prix there next month. The Saudis are really paying attention to what happens, as any upheaval could spread to them.
  
  Yemen is still seeing protest, with the King saying he is staying. No reports of wide violence like Libya or Bahrain, but still people in the streets.
  
  Tunisia is still seeing protests as well with no real move toward a government. I saw a report where people are starting to resist the move to strict Islamic laws.
  
  Egypt is starting to slowly see a transition from the military, with candidates starting to apply for office, but there are protests still in other cities. An article in the Post today stated the Brotherhood will not put forth a candidate for President, and will only put forth at the most 25% of candidates for the new Parliament, which is about the national percentage for them.
  
  The region is still in upheaval, and wide change.

  
  Nothing will happen in Saudi Arabia
  
  The us government won't allow it to happen
  
  It would mess up alot or things
  
  Sunni against Shia
  Country in chaos
  Price of oil skyrocketing to like 200 bucks a Barrel
  Companies bankrupt on the stock exchange
  Dow messed up
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  A fantastic Frontline aired last night on the uprising in Egypt. It is broken down into two sections, the first following the April 6 organization and their efforts that led to the first set of protests. It is really an inside point of view on the original organizers of the protests.
  The second part is on the Muslim Brotherhood, and it reveals the complexities of the Ikwan, including the huge gap between the old guard and the new guard. You are still left with many questions about the Ikwan, and some of those questions the Ikwan can't even answer yet.
  Still, a great episode.
  http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/revolution-in-cairo/?utm_campaign=homepage&utm_medium=proglist&utm_source=proglist
• Belly35

  

  Hillary … with a letter to the UN ..that’s it!
  
  We have an opportunity to help the Libya people .. send Hillary
  Qaddafi orders the bombing of PanAm ….. send a letter
  Libya people asking for freedom …. we go to the UN
  Killing of Libya citizens …. Democrats are all for humanitarian rights ..do fucking nothing
  
  Without stepping one foot into Libya take out Qaddafi with a Stealth Fighter ..we did it once a missed, do it again… shot to kill
  Then announce it to the world …… What the worst that could happen ..
  
  Obama incompetency shows weakness to the world ….
  
  http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/02/24/attack-libyan-protesters-vow-liberate-tripoli/
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  Hey Chief, want to know why we can't be a little strong, we still have Americans in the country.
  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/23/AR2011022303342_pf.html

  A 600-passenger ferry chartered by the U.S. government was in Libya to evacuate U.S. citizens to the nearby island of Malta, but its departure has been delayed by turbulent weather.

  She said her father, also a U.S. citizen, had been detained during an anti-government demonstration a few days ago in front of Tripoli's courthouse and was being held at a hospital on a military base. She said she fears for his safety after listening to Gaddafi's speech, in which he threatened to execute anyone going against the regime.

  We wouldn't want crazy Qaddafi to go Iranian on us would we? What's the worst that can happen, he kills Americans. So, the idea is to walk carefully until the Americans are out of the country, then go with options. Until then, we cannot risk the lives of the Americans. Oh, and we tried to land a plane to rescue them, but Libya denied it, and military options are out of the question given the large amount of people.
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  Things are getting real now. US citizens are out now. So, sanctions are getting ready now. At the UN, the Libyan Amb just blasted his own regime.
  I could easily see sanctions, then either a No-fly zone by NATO planes and then possible military action thereafter.
• FatHobbit

  

  ptown_trojans_1;691837 wrote:Things are getting real now. US citizens are out now. So, sanctions are getting ready now. At the UN, the Libyan Amb just blasted his own regime.
  I could easily see sanctions, then either a No-fly zone by NATO planes and then possible military action thereafter.

  
  What military? I hope we're not getting involved in another war. (or whatever the hell they want to call it.)
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  FatHobbit;691840 wrote:What military? I hope we're not getting involved in another war. (or whatever the hell they want to call it.)

  
  No, no invasion. It would be airstrikes, drones, etc. Think Bosnia 1995 meets the drone war in Afghanistan currently.
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  The UN Security Council will meet today and should impose economic sanctions, depending on China.
  The UN Council on Human Rights has called it a travesty, and the Libyan Rep resigned due to the mess.
  
  Upwards of 1,000 people have been killed in Libya, with Qaddafi not backing down saying he will kill everyone who doesn't support him.
  Thing is a mess.
  
  NATO met yesterday and prelim discussions were about a No-Fly zone or possible military options.
  Already, countries have frozen assets, and will move to freeze Qadaffi's money.
  
  Things are getting Iraq level pretty quickly.
• CenterBHSFan

  

  Qaddafi = mad dog = put it down
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  So, I get this daily email newsletter called Nighwatch, it is really good stuff. This morning, they had some great analysis on the region. Note the bolded sections.
  
  NightWatch Essay: Some time ago, David Goldman, purporting to channel Oswald Spengler for Asia Times Online, wrote a farsighted essay that anticipated, predicted and warned that modern impulses in the youth of the Middle East would rise up against conservative institutions to assert a modern definition of being Arab, Berber, Turk, Persian as well as Muslim. He identified the cohorts under 25 as the driving force in these pan-regional impulses.
  
  The events that began in December 2010 in Tunisia seem to have validated parts of Goldman's prophecy. He foresaw the struggle as one between modern educated youth and the conservative, sclerotic Islamic clerisy of mullahs and ayatollahs. In the essay, Spengler did not anticipate an intermediate phase in which the cohorts of modernization battled the stodgy pan Arab socialist authoritarian strong men.
  
  Few prophets live long enough to see even part of their vision come to pass, as has Goldman's in 2011. However, the youth that started the pro-democracy movement lack the experience and shrewdness to plan well. Still, they have spoken the language of human rights, individual worth and elected, accountable government. The words should have been a rallying call to the Western democracies.
  
  Those states that have the maturity and wisdom to help guide the Arab pro-democracy movement are the great western democracies, who else. But, the great democracies in North America and Europe have dithered. President Reagan's beacon on a hill has not shined its light on the Arabs.
  
  A month ago, caution was prudent. Each uprising has been different. A month later it is clear they have a consistent theme. Educated young people are tired of tutelage and have asserted their claim to have a say in their government and not defer to mullahs, imams, ayatollahs, pan Arab socialists or other authoritarian pretenders to leadership.
  
  The youth have lacked plans and sophistication. One Brilliant and extremely well-informed Reader described the movement in feedback as a continuous Arab Grateful Dead concert. The superficiality of the celebrations should not camouflage the profound significance of the phenomenon of Arab youth risking their lives for personal freedom and individual rights against the might of entrenched authoritarian regimes.
  
  Stodgy, professors in universities all over Europe, the UK, Canada and America and their students from all over the world for three generations can take a bow and go to their graves with a great sense of satisfaction and of accomplishment. Their work has had its impact.
  
  Possibly more suprising is that a tribute needs be made to all the instructors in western general staff and command colleges. Who could have predicted that the military leaders of multiple authoritarian systems would choose not to fire on their fellow citizens on the orders of a single person. That is a peculiarly Western interpretation of military duty in a modern state. The armed forces have determined the outcome of every uprising thus far.
  
  If ever there is a testament to the power of modern ideas -- that every person is created equal and endowed with inalienable rights, however that is translated in Arabic -- this movement seems to be it.
  
  The tragedy of the past month is that the great western democracies have fiddled while Tunis, Cairo, Sanaa, Manama and, most importantly and recently, Libya burned. The leaders of democracy appear to have lost the power of discernment and the courage of convictions. The Libyan uprising is the real thing and it needs support.
  
  NightWatch takes exception to those who would diminish the significance of what has transpired in Libya thus far. Bahrain and Yemen may be important for the protection of short term US interests, but the outcome in Libya will influence the Arab world far longer and more profoundly than the next steps in Bahrain. More importantly, the more than 200-year old values of the US more closely fit those of the rebels of Benghazi, Tobruk and Zawiyah than King Hamad of Bahrain. Thus far the US has no role.
  
  Qadhafi's rantings are reminiscent of Hitler in the bunker. The failure of the United States and NATO to provide military support to the Libyan rebels in their time of great need, when it might determine the outcome of the struggle, is almost craven.
  
  Opportunities for the US and NATO to support secular democratic Arab rebels in Benghazi have already come and gone. Jordan has provided some help.
  
  Once it became clear that Tripoli was isolated -- signaled by the defection of al Zawiyah to the rebels this week and that the Qadhafis had succumbed to murderous dementia as a family -- the US and NATO should have supported the revolution with aid as well as words. It is time for the democracies to take a risk in favor of democracy in Libya in order to avert a greater massacre and to be consequential in a pan-Arab awakening, apparently unlike anything since the foundation of the Baathists.
  
  The US evidently lacks military assets in the Mediterranean, but the French and Italians and other Mediterranean members of NATO have them. Even the British managed to send warships to Tripoli while the leadership of the most powerful nation on Earth did not.
  
  Finally, the most significant and least reported aspect of the uprisings of the past two months is the dog that has not barked. The Islamic fundamentalists and the mullahs have had nothing significant to say about the uprisings, other than perfunctory and confused cheerleading for the overthrow of pro-US strong men. They have had no influence on the uprisings and have provided no guidance, possibly because mullahs have preached that democracy is not consistent with Islam. That is tonight's good news.
  
  The great democracies, however, have been almost as silent as the mullahs, except for President Sarkozy of France. Turkey's Prime Minister Erdogan said democracy is like a streetcar. Libya is the place and now is the time for the Democracies to refute and confute Erdogan's cynical metaphor.
• majorspark

  

  I don't think Qaddafi is playing with a full deck of cards. The dude appears insane. His speeches are laughable. His appearance in the 1940's era truck holding the umbrella to proclaim he is still in Tripoli. WTF? He looked like a pussy. Its hard to believe he has any followers that would kill and die for this assclown. Personally I think his son Saif al-Islam Qaddafi is running the show. The Qaddafi's days are numbered but it appears they will put up a fight and many more will die and much property and infrastructure will be destroyed.
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  Yeah, he is crazy. Nothing tops his speech at the UN last year. It was over 2 hours and rambled on everything from the Kennedy Assassination, to Cuba to 9/11 being done by America. And, it was on hand written yellow paper notes. He has many screws loose.
• believer

  

  P-town, while the writer of the Nightwatch piece had some valid points, he implies that the United States is wrong in remaining relatively neutral in its response to supporting the uprisings. He assumes the youthful Arab protesters WANT U.S. help. I suggest they do not. In fact, they - as per usual - blame the United States for their current situations.
  
  The European NATO powers do have the resources to assist and they should when possible. It's about time the Europeans got involved. The United States has already stretched its resources in the region for the past decade and should, in my opinion, restrain itself from getting more deeply involved.
• jhay78

  

  As to the essay above, I have wondered why Obama seemed to support the Egyptian uprising from the get-go (even resulting in a response from the Saudis), while remaining silent on Libya, which is far worse from a humanitarian perspective, until recently.
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  jhay78;693142 wrote:As to the essay above, I have wondered why Obama seemed to support the Egyptian uprising from the get-go (even resulting in a response from the Saudis), while remaining silent on Libya, which is far worse from a humanitarian perspective, until recently.

  
  All the Americans were out of Egypt quickly and the prospects of Americans in danger were low (reporters being attacked aside).
  While in Libya, there were indications that Libya would target Americans in the country if America put on pressure.
  
  It was a debate inside the NSC, but they erred on the side of caution to wait till the Americans were out. Now, that they are out, game on.
  An good internal view of the debate:
  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/26/AR2011022604172_pf.html
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  believer;692735 wrote:P-town, while the writer of the Nightwatch piece had some valid points, he implies that the United States is wrong in remaining relatively neutral in its response to supporting the uprisings. He assumes the youthful Arab protesters WANT U.S. help. I suggest they do not. In fact, they - as per usual - blame the United States for their current situations.

  I'd say they were neutral. They want no one to stand in their way, but don't want total U.S. help. I sort of agree with you though.
  

  The European NATO powers do have the resources to assist and they should when possible. It's about time the Europeans got involved. The United States has already stretched its resources in the region for the past decade and should, in my opinion, restrain itself from getting more deeply involved.

  Yeah the Italians and French should and probably will. Northern Africa is French territory, so I expect them to provide assistant within the NATO context.
• majorspark

  

  Libya is descending into civil war. It appears it will take some time but Qaddafi will eventually be defeated. Regardless of oil issues the US needs to stay out of this. Let the Libyan people fight this one out.
  
  That said the west has clearly now chosen to side with the rebels. Any fear that the rebellion will fail will likely prompt military intervention of some sorts.
• believer

  

  majorspark;698173 wrote:Libya is descending into civil war. It appears it will take some time but Qaddafi will eventually be defeated. Regardless of oil issues the US needs to stay out of this. Let the Libyan people fight this one out.
  
  That said the west has clearly now chosen to side with the rebels. Any fear that the rebellion will fail will likely prompt military intervention of some sorts.

  That's fine...let's let the Italians and French handle this one.
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  majorspark;698173 wrote:Libya is descending into civil war. It appears it will take some time but Qaddafi will eventually be defeated. Regardless of oil issues the US needs to stay out of this. Let the Libyan people fight this one out.
  
  That said the west has clearly now chosen to side with the rebels. Any fear that the rebellion will fail will likely prompt military intervention of some sorts.

  believer;698175 wrote:That's fine...let's let the Italians and French handle this one.

  
  I agree that the Frenchies and Italians should pony up the hardware and support, but the U.S. could assist through providing aid and weapons through NATO.
  NATO support for the uprising goes a long way toward support of the West in whatever government comes into power.
  
  Libya is in full blown civil war now, and I expect it to get much worse, before it gets better.
• believer

  

  ptown_trojans_1;698194 wrote:I agree that the Frenchies and Italians should pony up the hardware and support, but the U.S. could assist through providing aid and weapons through NATO.

  
  Can't disagree. But let's do our best to avoid direct military combat. Let's face it....we are stretched very, very thin.