War with China?

• Tobias Fünke

  

  Does anyone see it happening sometime on the horizon? I follow foreign relations more than the average American, and have always thought that the Chinese and American economies are too intertwined to fight each other, as it would be bad for business.
  
  That said, why the hell does China continue to beef up its military at a significantly alarming rate? It's no secret we make the vast majority of scientific discoveries and militaristic advances and they just steal them from us via computer espionage.
  
  Where do you see Sino-American relations in a year? In five years? In twenty?
  
  http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/01/18/chinese-president-visits-amid-mounting-military-tensions/
  
  Granted I'm well aware we've been on course to fight countries before (France, UK, USSR, etc.) and those thankfully didn't materialize. But does China expect the world to believe it's beefing up it's military to fight Taiwan? The Russians? The Indians?
  
  If it were up to me, I'd move as much economic activity away from China and to countries like Brazil or India.
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  Considering China has no real Navy, only a land army, a limited Air Force, a small nuclear arsenal and no real modern war experience or command structure, the threat is not too real to me. Nor will that threat come anywhere close to tilting the balance of power in the region.
  Yes they are modernizing, but so are other nations of the world.
  China is just trying to match U.S. technology to ensure it can defend against what it perceives may be a fight against Taiwan.
  
  Although, China rising is helping the U.S. to secure allies in the region as no one is really supporting the Chinese.
• I Wear Pants

  When were we going to fight France and the UK? Unless you're talking about a long ass time ago.
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  I will say though, Chinese asymmetric capabilities-anti-satellite weapons and cyber warfare could be an issue in the future if not properly dealt.
  
  Also, what makes India more stable? They have the Kashmir problem and a very unstable Pakistan next door.
• Tobias Fünke

  

  I Wear Pants;643290 wrote:When were we going to fight France and the UK? Unless you're talking about a long ass time ago.

  
  Yes. I was comparing in my head the naval buildup of the 1920's with us, the British and the Japanese. Military strategists thought then that the USA and UK would battle for Atlantic naval supremacy, no? I was always told that back in the day. Obviously the Nazis got in the way of that happening. Still though, I was under the impression some people had the prescience to see Japan and the US fight in the Pacific in the 1920's because of the buildup, which I guess is similar to what China intends to do.
  

  ptown_trojans_1;643295 wrote:I will say though, Chinese asymmetric capabilities-anti-satellite weapons and cyber warfare could be an issue in the future if not properly dealt.
  
  Also, what makes India more stable? They have the Kashmir problem and a very unstable Pakistan next door.

  Yeah, if we know the sophisticated cyber warfare is coming from China--what can we do about it?
  
  I don't know what makes India more stable, and we need to be friends with India and Frienemies with Pakistan so it's a tough situation. But to me, business with places like Russia and China would be better, no? Don't we have poor third-world countries who actually like us with copious amounts of cheap labor?
• HitsRus

  

  A more likely scenario for war with China may come from Korean miscalculation/escalation.
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  HitsRus;643387 wrote:A more likely scenario for war with China may come from Korean miscalculation/escalation.

  
  Taiwan as well.
  They got really pissed about the most recent arms sale by the U.S.
• majorspark

  

  HitsRus;643387 wrote:A more likely scenario for war with China may come from Korean miscalculation/escalation.

  
  I agree this would be the most likely scenario. History has proven such. China will not allow the US to defeat and occupy a nation that has a land border with them. Period. They would unleash tens of thousands (likely hundreds of thousands) of ground troops against us. This is why our involvement in Korea is very dangerous. It is the reason why we feed and attempt to make nice with the North. And pressure the South to follow suit. Its is the reason the North Koreans were able to develop nukes. IMO this is the most dangerous area for us to have a military commitment. Things could quickly get out of hand.
  
  Secondly our defense commitments in the Middle East. Thirdly Taiwan which would involve China. Fourthly NATO and Eastern Europe including our ties with Georgia. Keep a close eye on Georgia. Georgia is the Russian door to the Middle East. They do not want the US controlling the key.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  It could well happen when we default on our national debt. Our economy would be ruined, which would be a big hit to their economy. They fire up the war machine to keep people working. We owe them a lot of money, and they will come here to take a return on their investment.
• majorspark

  

  ptown_trojans_1;643429 wrote:Taiwan as well.
  They got really pissed about the most recent arms sale by the U.S.

  
  When it comes to military issues with China, Taiwan could be a flash point. Taiwan however has the gift of geography. It is separated from China by water. As you accurately stated at this point in time China's navy is greatly inferior to ours. This would put China at a great disadvantage in a conflict over Taiwan. Korea would be a lot harder for us to deal with if China got involved. As it was in the 1950's. They share a land border and China could pour massive amounts of troops and supplies across it. Short of attacking supply lines and hubs in mainland China it would be impossible to stop.
• majorspark

  

  Cleveland Buck;643443 wrote:It could well happen when we default on our national debt. Our economy would be ruined, which would be a big hit to their economy. They fire up the war machine to keep people working. We owe them a lot of money, and they will come here to take a return on their investment.

  
  Another thing about China. Because they have the "one" child per family rule, many Chinese families need a young man to work to sustain the family and carry on its name. Abortions of female fetuses are not uncommon. This has resulted in an unnatural disproportion of the male female ratio. More warriors + more testosterone = aggressive military activity.
• Tobias Fünke

  

  Well if I'm China I'm investing in submarines and anti-carrier missiles to essentially create a buffer zone in the seas around me that I could potentially keep the US carriers out of. That is their immediate goal. Taiwan is interesting because it is an American ally, and rather unsinkable. It's a permanent aircraft carrier for us, and thus an immense concern for China. I refuse to believe China wants the island for the economic gain or for reunification, they want control to strengthen their anti-American buffer. I don't think it'd be a stretch to say "Taiwan and the US are to China as Cuba and the USSR were to US."
  
  
  ...at the end of the day though, "si vis pacem, para bellum."
• Tobias Fünke

  

  Cleveland Buck;643443 wrote:It could well happen when we default on our national debt. Our economy would be ruined, which would be a big hit to their economy. They fire up the war machine to keep people working. We owe them a lot of money, and they will come here to take a return on their investment.

  
  Glenn Beck had a good rant on that subject recently.
• believer

  

  I'm curious what OC posters think: Do you believe that U.S. debt to China will eventually trigger an economic crisis and/or military confrontation?
  
  If the United States defaults on that debt, how would it be possible for us to finance a sustained military conflict?
  
  Seems to me that we're in a Catch-22 situation with China. In the end, I believe this is precisely what China has hoped to achieve.
• CenterBHSFan

  

  I don't know if it will happen or not, Believer. But something tells me that we would see a massive crop of militia's growing up everywhere from sea to sea. American's will not be invaded.
• BGFalcons82

  

  CenterBHSFan;643604 wrote:I don't know if it will happen or not, Believer. But something tells me that we would see a massive crop of militia's growing up everywhere from sea to sea. American's will not be invaded.

  
  You are making a large assumption that Americans will be permitted to even have weapons to create militias. The 2nd Amendment looks nice on paper, but it's under constant assault by Progressives and socialists.
• CenterBHSFan

  

  BGFalcons82;643613 wrote:You are making a large assumption that Americans will be permitted to even have weapons to create militias. The 2nd Amendment looks nice on paper, but it's under constant assault by Progressives and socialists.

  Well at that point; I also believe that Americans will rise up against the Monarchy/Parliament yet again.
  
  (I see what I did there)
• believer

  

  BGFalcons82;643613 wrote:You are making a large assumption that Americans will be permitted to even have weapons to create militias. The 2nd Amendment looks nice on paper, but it's under constant assault by Progressives and socialists.

  Well the "progressives" are certainly giving it their best shot anyways.
  
  Have you noticed how "progressives" always seem to want to undermine the wisdom of our nation's founders? I wonder why that is? Wait...don't tell me. I already know.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  Tobias Fünke;643508 wrote:Glenn Beck had a good rant on that subject recently.

  
  I rarely ever watch Beck's show, or any of those shows, so I didn't see his rant, but it makes too much sense. When our economy is in ruin, no one will be buying all of that Chinese shit, so a war is the perfect way to put everyone to work over there. In order to pay for their armament, they will want their money back from us, which we won't have, so they will come get it.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  Not to mention, if all Americans have to defend themselves are pistols and BB guns, we're fucked when Chinese tanks start driving down the street. The criminals will have adequate weapons, but not enough of them.
• fish82

  

  Wolverines!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
• dwccrew

  

  Eh, China's military is so much further behind in capability than ours that they would be foolish to try and collect the debt the US owes them militarily. I think China knows this as well.
• believer

  

  dwccrew;643811 wrote:Eh, China's military is so much further behind in capability than ours that they would be foolish to try and collect the debt the US owes them militarily. I think China knows this as well.

  Perhaps but they can certainly pull the financial plug on our ability to protect our own military and financial interests.
  
  I'm not worried about Chi-com tanks rolling down Main Street but I am most definitely concerned that our children and our children's children will pick up the tab...and at a very, very heavy price.
  
  What stuns me is I can clearly recall the images on network news as Nixon stepped off Air Force One 40 some years ago and seeing very few cars and a lot of bicycles on the streets of Beijing.
  
  Now the Chinese are buying cars faster than Americans and don't seem to have any unemployment issues. If we're not careful, our kids will be the ones riding bicycles as adults to their minimum wage government make-work jobs.
  
  But - hey - their health care needs will be met...right?
  
  As the Chi-coms are reaping the benefits of capitalism, Americans are clamoring for the pitfalls of socialism. Amazing thing to watch.
  

  fish82;643782 wrote:Wolverines!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  Hilarious! The Hollyweirds should remake this flick but change the villains from Ruskies to Chi-coms! lol
• ptown_trojans_1

  

  Maybe in 20-30 years China's military will be comparable to ours today, but will still be behind the U.S.s in the future.
  All the Chinese have right now is an army and rocket force.
  They still need to in the next 10-20 years:
  1. Build a substantial Navy with a full Naval doctrine of engagement and infrastructure.
  2. Built a nuclear navy, with a full doctrine of how to patrol, engage and cooperate with the rest of the Navy.
  3. Build and field new fighters and bombers that can evade modern technology today and in the future.
  4. Expand and explore how a nuclear weapon Navy may play a role in their doctrine of No First Use.
  5. Create a broader Army-Navy-AF coordination system much like the Join Chiefs we have or the Russian military system.
  6. Use and field cyber and anti missile systems that can coordinate with other aspects of the military.
  7. Bring it all together to where the Party Chairman is deeply involved and can exercise restraint. Chairman Hu didn't even though the Chinese paraded their new stealth fighter prototype when Gates was there. That is a problem.
  8. Develop strategic dialogue with the U.S. on Chinese nuclear weapons policy that eliminates risks and miscalculation. Otherwise, both sides think the worst.
  
  So, the Chinese have a long way to go. Will they get there in 20 years? Maybe, but keep in mind, the U.S. is updating our systems too. The gap is closing, but I'd be shocked if the Chinese catch the U.S.
  
  Then again as Amb. Linton Brooks, who negotiated the START I Treaty with the Soviets said to me a few months ago, "I'm always careful about predicting because I'm aware that as soon as we concluded the START I Treaty, less than a year later the Soviet Union was gone." No one really knows the future, we can only guess really.
• fish82

  

  believer;643825 wrote:Hilarious! The Hollyweirds should remake this flick but change the villains from Ruskies to Chi-coms! lol

  You didn't hear? That's exactly what they're doing! http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1234719/