Oh......nice double header sweep for the series win!

Bullpen guys were great. 

Great win from a hot team with the bullpen! Going in to a 4 gamer 2 games back...

A good day.

posted by Gardens35

A good day.

 

posted by vball10set

This is why I'm a proponent of it, but as I said, only in certain cases (ie down by a run or tied in the top/bottom of 9th). I'm reading your posts as saying that a sac bunt is never a good idea, and if I'm interpreting that wrong, I apologize. I steadfastly maintain that there is a time and place for it, especially when you're at the bottom of the lineup.

No, you’re correct I never think it’s the right play. We have over 100 years of data that shows this.

Dont want to get into the outcomes possible and all the numbers game, so I’ll just leave the charts below. By bunting, and giving away an out, you are much more likely to not score than you are by just playing it normal.

The most common “accepted bunt” is 2nd to 3rd. But just think of what you’re doing. Giving an out away and only creating 2 more options for a run to score. You can argue slightly more than 2, because certain base hits wont score man from 2nd. Sac fly, wild pitch/passed ball. Plus a hit that scores from 3rd but not 2nd. The chances of those things happening, versus every other outcome, is tiny. The odds are you make 2 more outs and runner doesn’t score. If you don’t bunt, you allow for a 3rd batter to potentially get a hit and drive them in (either from 2nd or by chance 3rd without the bunt). The odds of a base hit coming from 3 batters is much higher than the odds of a base hit or Sac fly (from just out 2) or a WP/PB. Coming from 2 batters. They have done the research and math over all the games going back decades. To ignore it to me is just crazy.

posted by Laley23

No, you’re correct I never think it’s the right play. We have over 100 years of data that shows this.

Interested to see if the data has changed any the last 3 years. Be interesting to see what it was in the late 60’s....or from 1998-2003 or the 1930’s.

Teams now don’t bunt as much, steal as much, strikeout more....would like to see how it’s varied over differing periods. Average OPS+ is 100 so that is roughly the abate type hitter that is up over the timeframe of that data. Sometimes with a runner on 3rd you have 1 out and a 142 guy up with a 125 guy behind him....but there are times a 86 and a 83 guy to follow.

The data is figuring in the NL too so 6 or 7% are pitchers hitting. So NL and AL numbers are likely marginally different

Tribe wins both games of the DH

Bullpen

JRam

Party at Bump Wills's

Go Tribe

You have a better chance of scoring at least one run with a runner on third and one out than a runner on second with 0 outs. This calculator shows it https://gregstoll.com/~gregstoll/baseball/runsperinning.html just take the complement of 0 runs scored in each situation.

Laley's data shows that your expected outcome is greater by not bunting, but if you are down 1 run in the bottom of the 9th all that matter is 0,1, or 2 runs.

With that said, I believe that you have to look at the players involved. We never all will agree with Tito, but he is the best tribe manager of my lifetime, and I trust his decisions.

posted by Al Bundy

You have a better chance of scoring at least one run with a runner on third and one out than a runner on second with 0 outs. This calculator shows it https://gregstoll.com/~gregstoll/baseball/runsperinning.html just take the complement of 0 runs scored in each situation.

 

Laley's data shows that your expected outcome is greater by not bunting, but if you are down 1 run in the bottom of the 9th all that matter is 0,1, or 2 runs.

With that said, I believe that you have to look at the players involved. We never all will agree with Tito, but he is the best tribe manager of my lifetime, and I trust his decisions.

exactly--this is all I've been trying to emphasize to Laley all along, but he's too damn stubborn to admit it-lol

posted by vball10set

exactly--this is all I've been trying to emphasize to Laley all along, but he's too damn stubborn to admit it-lol

Not to stubborn. I had actually never seen that data, only the stuff I posted. I would still never bunt someone to second. But if you have competent hitter on deck, bunting to third seems to be a decent play. I’d also take into consideration what the pitcher looks like.

Im curious, and doubt anyone has data, on what the numbers look like in 8th/9th inning when you’re facing top relievers, infield is in, and pressure is higher. 

Still seems like the correct play based on what Bundy posted, but I bet it’s closer in those innings. You also have to factor in the failed bunt, which is not taken into consideration on these. It lowers the percentage for the pro-bunt, but doesn’t change the percentage for a non-bunt