This is not a poll of who you're voting for, or who you want to win. As such, the only two options are the two old white guys.

Who do you think actually wins?

Feel free to predict the EC spread as well.

I think Biden wins 291-247, with Biden winning PA, MI, WI, and AZ. 

I think Biden will win. 

Likely Biden. He's not toxic like Hillary was in '16 and how Trump has gotten for a lot of those more centrist voters who don't just go party line.

I think Biden but I also thought Hillary in 2016 so wtf do I know? 

posted by kizer permanente

I think Biden but I also thought Hillary in 2016 so wtf do I know? 

Same.

Trump wins this about the same spread as the last one.  Close on votes, not so much on electoral college

posted by ptown_trojans_1

I think Biden wins 291-247, with Biden winning PA, MI, WI, and AZ. 

THis map is ok except Trump wins Michigan and Pennsylvania.  That wins him the WH

posted by ptown_trojans_1

I think Biden wins 291-247, with Biden winning PA, MI, WI, and AZ. 

I would have the same except Trump wins PA and 1 of the 3 MIc WI, or AZ and that puts him in the WH.

I truly thought Trump was going to lose in 2016 and that it might be a landslide. That was a major shift in my belief on how much the MSM is just plain lying and is a schill for the far left.

For that reason I think Trump actually pulls this off again. 

I can’t see trump winning PA. They’ve moved them to solid blue.  I know he NEEDS it so Trump supporters are saying he’ll win it, but it’s not looking so for him. 

posted by ptown_trojans_1

I think Biden wins 291-247, with Biden winning PA, MI, WI, and AZ. 

Wow, I'm not sure about the polls and really don't have a strong feeling either way.

But your map shouldn't inspire confidence in a Biden win, because flip AR and it's 269-269.  I think Trump could still win WI or MI, and possibly MIN.  On the other hand, I think NC and FL are still toss-ups, and possibly NV though it may not move the needle (except if it's 269-269).

That's why I don't think the results will be known for weeks, and could end-up in the SCOTUS again.  I very much could see the result hinging on flipping the result in a single state, with multiple such states presenting that opportunity.

Hell, GA and even IA could be in play.  Basically no one has a clue, and I think, per usual, the campaigns' internal polling is giving a much better idea.  I think there are some new "swing states" in play this election, and Biden's approach to make it a pandemic referendum while not really campaigning is looking a lot like Hillary's failed 2016 "I'm inevitable and don't need to campaign" campaign.

posted by jmog

I truly thought Trump was going to lose in 2016 and that it might be a landslide. That was a major shift in my belief on how much the MSM is just plain lying and is a schill for the far left.

It's a curious approach given less enthusiastic voters stay home when you keep telling them it's going to be a landslide.

Although, in this case, it really feels like they're setting the table for another "Trump stole the election!!!!" rallying cry based, again, on questionable polling numbers.  It's another insurance policy if Trump wins to justify court challenges and congressional investigations.  This is why they've been making a big deal about the mail, and about drop boxes.  They're setting up a multi-pronged court challenge.  Interesting lack of confidence when Biden is supposed to win in a landslide.

I think enough old people in Florida are pissed at Republicans for covid that they go blue. 

The best part about this election is there's a good chance Trump is ahead on election night, and so we still get to watch all the historic meltdowns.

But then he still ends-up losing in the long-run.  Although as much as I don't want to listen to 4 more years of Trump, I prefer Trump to win if the Repubs lose the WH.  In the latter case, perhaps a few Dems in the Senate will say no to packing the SCOTUS and ending the filibuster...less confident they won't add states to effectively accomplish the same objective.

Not sure many votes were still up for grabs before the debate (and looks like almost 50% have already voted)

Biden is looking pretty solid in MI, WI and MIN.  But he may have hurt himself last night in PA.  There's also a potential 2 vote swing in Biden's favor in Maine, and potentially 2-4 more in Nebraska.  But I think this race is going to pivot on PA, and Trump might not be able to make up enough ground there, at this point.

edit:  I screwed up Iowa, which means Trump can get 270 with EITHER Wisconsin or Minnesota, but like Michigan they look pretty safely Biden.

I'll say Trump by at least the same electoral margin as '16, with a chance to add a couple more states.  I think he will hang on to Michigan and PA, for the job he has done on the mfg and energy side, but also because at least half of the residents in those states cannot stand their governors, and the illegal actions they took over covid.

Looks like Trump is knocking down that blue wall.  Penn, Mi likely falling to the red side again

My best guess. I'm probably being generous with MN, WI, MI, and PA all red. Still a Trump victory if Biden wins any 3 of the 4.

posted by justincredible

My best guess. I'm probably being generous with MN, WI, MI, and PA all red. Still a Trump victory if Biden wins any 3 of the 4.

What makes you think Trump is going to win? 

It's just a hunch.

posted by justincredible

It's just a hunch.

Based on what?  Just curious. 

Based on I think he's going to win.

hunch: a feeling or guess based on intuition rather than known facts.

I know all signs point to me being wrong, but I'm just not buying what's being sold. I've been wrong before, and I wouldn't put money on it, I just think he wins.

Of the 4 states that will decide (MI, MN, WI and PA) I think Trump gets PA, but that’s it. If any of OH, FL, TX, AZ, Etc flip I don’t see a path for him.

As it stands, he could nab 2/4 and steal it.

OH, FL, TX, and AZ are Trumps.

posted by justincredible

I know all signs point to me being wrong, but I'm just not buying what's being sold. I've been wrong before, and I wouldn't put money on it, I just think he wins.

I have a friend out of nowhere very bullish on Trump winning and was just curious if your hunch was based on anything.  I think it will be closer than people think, but I don't see Trump winning.