posted by Laley23Horrible odds. You can get Rahm to win the Genisis at +1400, to lay that on a major with a field that is the best in the world would be asinine.
Ok so I won’t
Silly question Lalely but if you put a futures bet on a team to make/miss the playoffs does that include play in tournament? Or is it defined by the two winners of the play in?
posted by friendfromlowrySilly question Lalely but if you put a futures bet on a team to make/miss the playoffs does that include play in tournament? Or is it defined by the two winners of the play in?
I would check the bet fine print. But usually has to be the final 8. They have specific bets to make the play-in.
posted by justincredibleOk so I won’t
Don’t mean to dissuade you. And Rahm very well win a major. But he is getting ridiculous treatment from the books that isn’t warranted. He beat Morikawa in a chip and putt contest with 20 people, then won The AmEx which is a horrible field.
Looked solid this week again, but as you see in these better fields you have to be really good. And in the Majors you have to be near perfect. He is rarely that, which makes laying odds around 10-12/1 just crazy. He’s not winning Augusta 10% of the time he plays. He’s not winning The Open every 7 times he tees it up. Which is what these odds are saying.
This far out especially, all the odds are lower. Week of you will see more realistic reflection.
Spieth for his run and Tiger are the only guys who have ever warranted these types of odds. I’m honestly not sure why Rahm is getting them. We’ve seen runs like this all the time (I pointed them out to I92 a bit ago).
I view it as I'm putting down a $20 bet for Rahm to win a major this year. If he wins one I'd more than double my total bet for the year. I'm completely new to golf betting so I'm definitely not versed on what the future betting odds should look like so I'll trust you that it's a bad bet at those odds. I still want to make the bet, but I'll just wait until closer to the tournament before making each one.
I appreciate the lesson because I clearly don't know wtf I'm doing.
Ok, here's one for you.
Max Homa clearly loves playing in California. The US Open is in California. When I looked yesterday I could bet on Homa to win at +4600. Today the US Open is locked for betting, at least on FanDuel.
Would $5 at those odds have been ... asinine ... or is that a decent bet?
posted by justincredibleOk, here's one for you.
Max Homa clearly loves playing in California. The US Open is in California. When I looked yesterday I could bet on Homa to win at +4600. Today the US Open is locked for betting, at least on FanDuel.
Would $5 at those odds have been ... asinine ... or is that a decent bet?
No that is a solid bet. But he will be lower when they re-open those odds, I am guess. And in that case, you may want to wait a bit and hope for a MC or something along the lines. They usually close all those futures at the conclusion of the weekend oturnaments, rerun the simulations and adjust for new OWGR, then put out the new odds.
posted by justincredibleI view it as I'm putting down a $20 bet for Rahm to win a major this year. If he wins one I'd more than double my total bet for the year. I'm completely new to golf betting so I'm definitely not versed on what the future betting odds should look like so I'll trust you that it's a bad bet at those odds. I still want to make the bet, but I'll just wait until closer to the tournament before making each one.
I appreciate the lesson because I clearly don't know wtf I'm doing.
Just to be clear, because I think I may have misinterpreted your intial Rahm bet. What were the odds and terms?
Got fairly hot over the weekend and hit about 8 straight at one point. Day/Theegala parlay for T20 paid well at +648; Celts moneyline in the 4th Qtr when they were trailing; under in the Eagles game; Under 81.5 second half total points in Youngstown St game - lol; and Hall to be a goal scorer for the Bruins yesterday at +310, they scored one goal and it was originally credited to Zacha but later changed to Hall which was a nice surprise.
posted by Laley23Just to be clear, because I think I may have misinterpreted your intial Rahm bet. What were the odds and terms?
It was +1000 or higher on each Major.
So, $5 bet, he wins, $50+ payout. If I bet $5 on each Major I clear at least $30 if he wins one.
posted by justincredibleIt was +1000 or higher on each Major.
So, $5 bet, he wins, $50+ payout. If I bet $5 on each Major I clear at least $30 if he wins one.
Yeah, I just think you will get at least +1000 at the Masters. If he wins, you cash it the same way anyway. And if not, he will cool off and have better odds at the others.
All it takes is Rory, Morikawa, etc getting hot for a month and they will take the top spot on the odds board.
BTW
Way to go, Rory !!
More for golf and not betting, but Patrick Reed just straight lying about finding his ball in that tree is nuts. He’s always been a douchebag cheater, but he could play the accident/I didn’t know card. This one was blatant and no coming back from as far as cheater label goes.
Yes, ball clearly went into the first tree, not one of the two just beyond it. And he looked like a fool in #TeeGate.
posted by ptown_trojans_1I've been living off of NHL overs the last week. They have been hitting more often than not.
For tomorrow, I'm pretty torn. I do have future bets each of 49ers, Eagles, and Bengals to win Superbowl. I also have 49ers to win NFC at +200.
But, having all of the money and bets on the Eagles and Bengals, makes me want to take 49ers +3 and KC -1.5. KC ML may be my hedge.
That's my lean right now.
I took 9ers +3, and then as soon as Brock went down, I hammered Eagles -7 live, so that with the over, I came out ahead.
Took KC ML last night too. So, that dumb ending helped me.
Had a parlay of Eagles and Chiefs MLs too, so was a decent day.
Initial thoughts on the Superbowl is KC +2 and ML. Maybe the over too.
Up to $731 after a series of wins and loses on O/U, player props, and 3-balls last week.
$269 more to go in about 2 weeks. You gotta have faith!
I’d say it’s about +150 that you get there.
posted by justincredibleI’d say it’s about +150 that you get there.
I would take those odds. Personally think its a long shot. Its been a very good stretch since around Christmas. It wont last much longer, so trying to capitalize.
Went 2 for 3 last night .............. 2nd half in-game bet with Loyola getting 19.5 from Colgate was a lock ............. :) :)
Probably had my best night tonight. As mentioned, I only bet a few bucks on each but turned three $3 bets into $57. I was ice cold last week but I’m up $115 since then.
I’m going to keep looking into betting the over on the NBA superstars. Embiid, Luka, Jokic, Giannis and even Lebron have all been solid lately. One of my bets tonight was a parlay on Lebron, Jokic, and Giannis over total P/R/A.
Nice. I had a down night with the exception of the Bucks covering an in-game bet.
Broke even on the Barcelona game today (would’ve been HUGE) if the first goal for Barcelona wasn’t offside.
But cleaned up on live betting 4 different O/U in NBA. Hit on all 4, and now up over $800 with about a week to go.
posted by Laley23
I should've jumped on the Under for 76ers/Magic. Just didn't pull the trigger. Nice night for you!
Do you have anything for the Pro-Am this week? So far I just got Spieth going at +1400 (after a DK boost).
Leaning right now:
T10 (purely going on Golf Digest expert picks here)
Hossler +550
Bramlett +600
NeSmith +650
T20
Putnam +130 (hoping he gets back to Sony Open form)
McNealy +105 (same with Mcnealy)