posted by Spock

Stop please......market is down because other countries cant regulate or control people from trying to sell bushmeat at open air markets.  This isnt the same as bad policy changes and poor deregulations that caused the housing collapse thanks to the dems (Carter and Clinton)

Stop what?  The equation I gave is exactly how you look at the market.  When it does well, it's because Trump is directly affecting it with his agenda that day.  When it's down, it is due to fear caused on purpose by the Big Bad Media.  The only problem with this is what do you say when a democrat is in office.  As I recall, the basic argument then is that when the market is down, it is because of (office occupant)'s stupid agenda that very day bringing it down, and when it's up, it's the perseverance of the People (the great capitalists of our nation), succeeding in spite of the obstacles the regime throws into their path.  

posted by Spock

As for global markets....yeah.  this coronavirus thing is basically Chinese people eating shit they shouldn't.  

I'm aware of what it is.  I'm just flabbergast that someone actually believes that people eating bat soup is going to throw the world economy into upheaval.

That's some butterfly effect conspiracy shit right there.

R.I.P. Bull Market.  11-yr run officially over today.

I've never been a big fan on technicals, but if you look at the Dow the last few days and especially today, there was some support at the 20% mark.  Then it finally broke thru, rallied, and then broke thru again.

I think the good news, right now, is most of the losses so far are just paper losses.  There hasn't been significant economic/growth damage YET.  So if this coronavirus ends in a few weeks, we would see a pretty healthy rally.  But if this really does trigger a recession, then the losses are real and we might still not be at the bottom.

posted by Heretic

Shut the fuck up on everything, you fucking moron.

I screen shot this to show my wife. 😆

posted by O-Trap

I'm aware of what it is.  I'm just flabbergast that someone actually believes that people eating bat soup is going to throw the world economy into upheaval.

That's some butterfly effect conspiracy shit right there.

You do realize that it actually happened that way?  The vector for this virus was zoonotic. Meaning a virus that lived within an animal was transferred to a human.  That person caused a world wide pandemic.  

posted by Spock

You do realize that it actually happened that way?  The vector for this virus was zoonotic. Meaning a virus that lived within an animal was transferred to a human.  That person caused a world wide pandemic.  

I'm aware of how the coronavirus got started.  You misunderstand my point. It's the leap from correlation to causation that I'm interested in hearing you explain in all your macroeconomic expertise.

There have been indicators that a recession was coming before the pandemic, and there were a lot of people "buying the dip" before today.  A lot of people who do this as a living.

But perhaps you know something everyone else doesn't.

Market is tanking again.

I guess the Fed's effort at lowering interest rates did not really help. Outside of just printing more money or easing credit, the Fed is out of options now. 

posted by ptown_trojans_1

Market is tanking again.

I guess the Fed's effort at lowering interest rates did not really help. Outside of just printing more money or easing credit, the Fed is out of options now.

It's predictably comical.  Rally one day because MOAR STIMILAUS!!!!   Then tank the next day because "oh shit, things must be worse than they're telling us to do this!!!"

posted by ptown_trojans_1

Market is tanking again.

I guess the Fed's effort at lowering interest rates did not really help. Outside of just printing more money or easing credit, the Fed is out of options now. 

Temporarily guaranteeing credit lines would have been a better move ……..interest rates are not the issue.

posted by QuakerOats

Temporarily guaranteeing credit lines would have been a better move ……..interest rates are not the issue.

Umm ... were you not around for 2008?  A huge chunk of the problem there was the credit approval given to borrowers who had no business borrowing.

posted by QuakerOats

 

 

Temporarily guaranteeing credit lines would have been a better move ……..interest rates are not the issue.

 

posted by O-Trap

Umm ... were you not around for 2008?  A huge chunk of the problem there was the credit approval given to borrowers who had no business borrowing.

Yeah. I think the problem may be there is cheap credit and firms are holding onto more and more bad debt. 

On a plus note...at least the market has flat lined since the early drop. 

posted by ptown_trojans_1

Yeah. I think the problem may be there is cheap credit and firms are holding onto more and more bad debt. 

On a plus note...at least the market has flat lined since the early drop.

I mean, if the undue credit weren't adjustable rate credit, that would at least not be AS bad as the 2008 crisis, but damn, having a bunch of people default on debt because they don't all get out of this dip unscathed is not going to be helpful to the economy.

Called my buddy about refi to 15 years......last week it was 2.85, rates today are at 3.25.  Went up.  money grabs by the banks.

Dow is down nearly 2k again, We have now wiped out all the gains since Trump took office, and close to when he was elected. 

S&P is down 1k from the high last month. 

Can we just shutdown the stock market for a bit now? 

posted by ptown_trojans_1

Can we just shutdown the stock market for a bit now? 

People need access to their money, as painful as it might be to realize those losses.

I keep debating about jumping in trying to profit on some of this volatility.  But I don't want to get run over by the train.

posted by O-Trap

Umm ... were you not around for 2008?  A huge chunk of the problem there was the credit approval given to borrowers who had no business borrowing.

Lord.  We are not talking about throwing money at new borrowers who are not credit-worthy.  We are talking about guaranteeing existing credit lines of businesses so they have the liquidity to weather the storm; otherwise many will become insolvent immediately and then the shit will hit the fan.  This is a completely different situation than ’09.

posted by QuakerOats

 

Lord.  We are not talking about throwing money at new borrowers who are not credit-worthy.  We are talking about guaranteeing existing credit lines of businesses so they have the liquidity to weather the storm; otherwise many will become insolvent immediately and then the shit will hit the fan.  This is a completely different situation than ’09.

There's certainly some nuanced differences, which I've already alluded to.  However, it's more similar that you're trying to make it seem.

So, if I had cash to throw into the market now to try to catch the rally, how would I do that?  Where would you all invest it? 

Depends on if you want long term growth or you are looking for a quick money grab.

posted by FatHobbit

So, if I had cash to throw into the market now to try to catch the rally, how would I do that?  Where would you all invest it? 

Should've thrown some cash in last week. 

Crude oil down over FIFTY percent today. It’s under $9 a barrel. Crazy, crazy crash of the oil industry. 
...And I just bought a ton of oil drilling stocks. Buy low

posted by SportsAndLady

Crude oil down over FIFTY percent today. It’s under $9 a barrel. Crazy, crazy crash of the oil industry. 
...And I just bought a ton of oil drilling stocks. Buy low

Good lord.  I remember the days back in 2014 when it was topping out over $100.  This is crazy.

posted by SportsAndLady

Crude oil down over FIFTY percent today. It’s under $9 a barrel. Crazy, crazy crash of the oil industry. 
...And I just bought a ton of oil drilling stocks. Buy low

Which ones?

posted by like_that

Which ones?

DO and HP

Bought OXY, too