Region 7 An Extreme Mathematical Analysis
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teach1coach2Prediction as of 10/13/12:
#1 Tri-Valley hosts #8 Canal Winchester (also possible Tecumseh, Walnut Ridge, Brookhaven)
#2 Zanesville hosts #7 Tecumseh (also possible Canal Winchester)
#3 Marion Franklin hosts #6 Licking Heights
#4 New Albany hosts #5 Beechcroft
Most of this post is the MATH used to determine the Harbin points average. If you disagree with a “pick” I made as to who would win, I put how that affects the average and you can add or subtract as needed to see how it affects things overall [set up to be easy for non-Math people to use ]
Below is an extreme mathematical analysis of the 13 teams with the best chance to make the playoffs in Region 7. Based on what has happened weeks 1-8 and what will likely happen weeks 9-10 with all favorites winning, here would be the rankings:
Definitely playing week 11 in the playoffs will be:
#1 Tri-Valley (10-0) 30.4 Will host playoff game week 11 (even if they lost one game)
#2 Zanesville (9-1) 28.08434 Will host playoff game week 11
#3 New Albany (8-2) 26.5 Should win out and host. Easily could be #4 seed if Canal Winchester beats Circleville. I think that will happen.
#4 Marion Franklin (9-1) 26.36767 Should win out and host. Easily could be #3 seed.
#5 Beechcroft (8-1) 24.49687 BIG game with Brookhaven. Still make playoffs if they lose to Haven.
#6 Licking Heights (10-0) 23.2 Mathematically, you are not hosting unless 2 of the 3 lose (New Albany, Marion Franklin, Beechcroft).
Last 2 spots:
#7 Tecumseh (8-2) 21.57323 Beat Kenton Ridge for #7. Finish #8-10 with a loss.
#8 Walnut Ridge (7-3) 18.8 If any team below wins their big game WR is out of top 8.
#9 Canal Winchester (7-3) 17.5 Must upset Circleville to finish #7 or #8. Also moves Marion Franklin to #3 and New Albany to #4 due to L2 points for MF.
#10 Brookhaven (7-3) 16.47727 Must upset Beechcroft and have CW or Tecumseh lose week 10.
Long Shots to make it.
#11 Hamilton Township (8-2) 16.5 Win out and hope teams above are upset.
#12 Ashland (6-4) 14.8 Win out and hope teams above are upset.
#13 Mount Vernon (5-5) 13.86111 If they win out they are in the playoffs at #6,#7, or #8. Not happening.
Did not check Big Walnut, Mifflin, or Teays Valley. Just not realistically in the mix.
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#1 Tri-Valley (10-0) L1/10 + L2/10= 48.5/10 + 255.5/10=30.4 Projected Average (26.0 if beaten by Philo week 10)
Week 1-8 L1= 38.5, L2= 154
Week 9 L1=5 beat Sheridan (4-4) & gained L2= 18.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 2.85 from ave. if Sheridan wins
Week 10 L1=5 beat Philo (7-1) & gained L2= 34 (through 8 weeks) Minus 4.4 from ave. if Philo wins
New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 25
Licking Valley over Bexley (5), if Bexley wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Bexley wins
Philo vs. Maysville; TV beat both (5)
New Lex over West Muskingum; TV beat both (4.5), if WM wins (5) Add .05 to ave. if WM wins
Dover over Marietta (5.5), if Marietta wins (0) Minus .55 from ave. if Marietta wins
Crooksville over Morgan; TV beat both (5), if Morgan wins (4) Minus .1 from ave. if Morgan wins
New Philadelphia over John Glenn (0), if JG wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if JG wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 24
Licking Valley over Heath (4.5), if Heath wins (0) Minus .45 from ave. if Heath wins
Maysville vs. Morgan; TV beat both (5)
Claymont over West Muskingum (0), if WM wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if WM wins
Dover over New Philadelphia (5.5), if NP wins (0) Minus .55 from ave. if NP wins
John Glenn over Crooksville; TV beat both (4), if Crooksville wins (5) Add .1 to ave. if Crooksville wins
New Lex vs. Sheridan; TV beat both (5)
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#2 Zanesville (9-1) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 46.5/10 + 232/9.9 =28.08434 Projected Average
Week 1-8 L1=36 , L2=150
Week 9 L1=5 beat Cambridge (5-3) & gained L2= 26 (through 8 weeks) Minus 3.58080 from ave. if Cambridge wins
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Marietta (1-7) & gained L2=5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 1.05505 from ave. if Marietta wins
New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 26.5
Reynoldsburg over Newark (0), if Newark wins (6) Add .60606 to ave. if Newark wins
Licking Valley over Bexley (5), if Bexley wins (0) Minus .50505 from ave. if Bexley wins
Ross over Little Miami (6), if LM wins (0) Minus .60606 from ave. if LM wins
Ursuline over Mooney (5), if Mooney wins (0) Minus .50505 from ave. if Mooney wins
Jonathan Alder over Marion Harding (5.5), if MH wins (0) Minus .55555 from ave. if MH wins
Rosecrans over River View (0), if RV wins (3.5) Add .35353 to ave. if RV wins
New Philadelphia over John Glenn (5), if JG wins (0) Minus .50505 from ave. if JG wins
Dover over Marietta (0), if Marietta wins (5) Add .50505 to ave. if Marietta wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 24.5
Lancaster over Newark (0), if Newark wins (6) Add .60606 to ave. if Newark wins
Licking Valley over Heath (4.5), if Heath wins (0) Minus .45454 from ave. if Heath wins
Ross over Talawanda (6), if Talawanda wins (0) Minus .60606 from ave. if Talawanda wins
St. Vincent St. Mary over Ursuline (0), if Ursuline wins (5) Add .50505 to ave. if Ursuline wins
Jonathan Alder over Watterson (5), if Watterson wins (0) Minus .50505 from ave. if Watterson wins
River View over Coshocton (4.5), if Coshocton wins (0) Minus .45454 from ave. if Coshocton wins
Dover over New Philadelphia (0), if NP wins (5) Add .50505 to ave. if NP wins
Cambridge over Meadowbrook (4.5), if Meadowbrook wins (5) Add .05050 to ave. if Meadowbrook wins
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#3 New Albany (8-2) L1/10 + L2/10= 45/10 + 220/10 =26.5 Projected Average (23.2 if beaten by Mount Vernon week 10)
Week 1-8 L1=34, L2=134.5
Week 9 L1=5.5 beat Watkins Memorial (2-6) & gained L2=11.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 1.7 from ave. if WM wins
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Mount Vernon (5-3) & gained L2=27.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 3.3 from ave. if MV wins
New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 23.5
DeSales over LaSalle (6), if LaSalle wins (0) Minus .6 from ave. if LaSalle wins
Big Walnut over Orange; NA beat both (6), if Orange wins (5.5) Minus .05 from ave. if Orange wins
Franklin Heights over Hayes; NA beat both (6), if Hayes wins (5.5) Minus .05 from ave. if Hayes wins
Olentangy over Mount Vernon; NA beat both (5.5), if MV wins (6) Add .05 to ave. if MV wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 23
DeSales over George Washington (6), if GW wins (0) Minus .6 from ave. if GW wins
Orange over Watkins Memorial; NA beat both (5.5), if WM wins (6) Add .05 to ave. if WM wins
Big Walnut vs. Franklin Heights; NA beat both (5.5)
Olentangy vs. Hayes; NA beat both (6)
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#4 Marion Franklin (9-1) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 46/10 + 215.5/9.9 =26.36767 Projected Average (22.83737 if beaten by Eastmoor week 9)
Week 1-8 L1=36 , L2=134
Week 9 L1=5 beat Eastmoor (5.3) & gained L2=26.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 3.53030 from ave. if Eastmoor wins
Week 10 L1=5 beat South (3-5) & gained L2= 15.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 2.41919 from ave. if South wins
New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 20
Beechcroft over Brookhaven (0), if Brookhaven wins (5.5) Add .55555 to ave. if Brookhaven wins
Canal Winchester over Teays Valley (5.5), if TV wins (0) Minus .55555 from ave. if TV wins
Walnut Ridge vs. Briggs; MF beat both (5.5)
Independence over West; MF beat both (5.5), if West wins (5) Minus .05050 from ave. if West wins
South over Africentric; MF beat both (3.5), if Africentric wins (5) Add .15151 to ave. if Africentric wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 19.5
Brookhaven over Mifflin (5.5), if Mifflin wins (0) Minus .55555 from ave. if JG wins
Circleville over Canal Winchester (0), if CW wins (5) Add .50505 to ave. if CW wins
West vs. Briggs; MF beat both (5.5)
Walnut Ridge over Independence; MF beat both (5), if Independence wins (5.5) Add .05050 to ave. if Independence wins
Eastmoor over Africentric; MF beat both (3.5), if Africentric wins (5) Add .15151 to ave. if Africentric wins
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teach1coach2#5 Beechcroft (8-1) L1/9 + L2/8.9= 43/9 + 175.5/8.9 =24.49687 Projected Average (19.67228 if beaten by Brookhaven week 9)
Week 1-8 L1=32, L2=92
Week 9 L1=5.5 beat Brookhaven (6-2) & gained L2=32 (through 8 weeks) Minus 4.82459 from ave. if Brookhaven wins
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Northland (4-4) & gained L2=20.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 3.53245 from ave. if BU wins
New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 15.5
Westerville South over Dublin Jerome (0), if DJ wins (6) Add .67415 to ave. if DJ wins
East vs. Centennial; Beechcroft beat both (5)
Northland vs. Whetstone; Beechcroft beat both (5.5)
Mifflin over Linden McKinley; Beechcroft beat both (5), if LM wins (5.5) Add .05617 to ave. if LM wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15.5
Westerville Central over Dublin Jerome (0), if DJ wins (6) Add .67415 to ave. if DJ wins
Whetstone over Centennial; Beechcroft beat both (5), if Centennial wins (5.5) Add .05617 to ave. if Centennial wins
East vs. Linden McKinley; Beechcroft beat both (5)
Brookhaven vs. Mifflin; Beechcroft beat both (5.5)
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#6 Licking Heights (10-0) L1/10 + L2/10= 42.5/10 + 189.5/10=23.2 Projected Average
Week 1-8 L1= 35, L2=142
Week 9 L1=4 beat Berne Union (1-7) & gained L2= 3.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus .75 from ave. if BU wins
Week 10 L1=3.5 beat Fisher Catholic (2-6) & gained L2= 7.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 1.1 from ave. if FC wins
Week 8 Saturday Game L2 =3.5
Grandview Heights over Fisher Catholic; LH beat both (3.5), if FC wins (4) Add .05 to ave. if FC wins
New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 17
New Albany over Watkins Memorial (0), if WM wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if WM wins
Gallia Academy over Logan (5.5), if GA wins (0) Minus .55 from ave. if Logan wins
Canal Winchester over Teays Valley (0), if TV wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if TV wins
Harvest Prep over Grandview Heights; LH beat both (4), if GH (3.5) Minus .05 from ave. if GH wins
West Jefferson vs. Liberty Union; LH beat both (4)
Millersport vs. Fisher Catholic; LH beat both (3.5)
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 16
Orange over Watkins Memorial (0), if WM wins (6) Add .6 to ave. if WM wins
Jackson over Gallia Academy (0), if GA wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if GA wins
Teays Valley over Fairfield Union (5), if FU wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if FU wins
Harvest Prep vs. Millersport; LH beat both (3.5)
Liberty Union vs. Grandview Heights; LH beat both (4)
West Jefferson over Berne Union; LH beat both (3.5), if BU wins (4) Add .05 to ave. if BU wins
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#7 Tecumseh (8-2) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 42.5/10 + 171.5/9.9= 21.57323 Projected Average (18.09344 if beaten by Kenton Ridge week 10)
Week 1-8 L1=32.5, L2=105.5
Week 9 L1=5 beat Bellefontaine (1-7) & gained L2=5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 1.00505 from ave. if Bellefontaine wins
Week 10 L1=5 beat Kenton Ridge (6-2) & gained L2=29.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 3.47979 from ave. if KR wins
New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 21.5
Fairborn over West Carrollton (5.5), if WC wins (0) Minus .55555 from ave. if WC wins
Butler over Piqua (5.5), if Piqua wins (0) Minus .55555 from ave. if Piqua wins
Northwestern over Graham (0), if Graham wins (4.5) Add .45454 to ave. if Graham wins
Shawnee over Stebbins; Tecumseh beat both (5.5), if Stebbins wins (5) Minus .05050 from ave. if Stebbins wins
Tippecanoe over Kenton Ridge; Tecumseh beat both (5), if KR wins (5.5) Add .05050 to ave. if KR wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 10
Xenia over Fairborn (0), if Fairborn wins (6) Add .60606 to ave. if Fairborn wins
Trotwood Madison over Butler (0), if Butler wins (5.5) Add .55555 to ave. if Butler wins
Urbana over Graham (0), if Graham wins (5) Add .50505 to ave. if Graham wins
Stebbins over Bellefontaine; Tecumseh beat both (5), if Bellefontaine wins (5.5) Add .05050 to ave. if Bellefontaine wins
Tippecanoe over Shawnee; Tecumseh beat both (5), if Shawnee wins (5.5) Add .05050 to ave. if Shawnee wins
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#8 Walnut Ridge (7-3) L1/10 + L2/10= 35.5/10 + 152.5/10 =18.8 Projected Average
Week 1-8 L1=24 , L2=95.5
Week 9 L1=5.5 beat Briggs (1-7) & gained L2=3.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus .9 from ave. if Briggs wins
Week 10 L1=5 beat Independence (5-3) & gained L2= 25.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 3.6 from ave. if Independence wins
New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 14
Urbana over Indian Lake (5), if IL wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if IL wins
Independence over West; WR beat both (5.5), if West wins (5) Minus .05 from ave. if West wins
South over Africentric; WR beat both (3.5), if Africentric wins (5) Add .15 to ave. if Africentric wins
Marion Franklin over Eastmoor (0), if Eastmoor wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if Eastmoor wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 14
Urbana over Graham (5), if Graham wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Graham wins
West vs. Briggs; WR beat both (5.5)
Eastmoor over Africentric; WR beat both (3.5), if Africentric wins (5) Add .15151 to ave. if Africentric wins
Marion Franklin over South (0), if South wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if South wins
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#9 Canal Winchester (7-3) L1/10 + L2/10= 36/10 + 139/10=17.5 Projected Average (21.55 if they beat Circleville week 10)
Week 1-8 L1=30.5, L2=97
Week 9 L1=5.5 beat Teays Valley (4-4) & gained L2=18.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 2.4 from ave. if TV wins
Week 10 L1=0 Lose to Circleville (6-2) Add 4.05 to ave. if CW wins
New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 9.5
Frankin Heights over Hayes (0), if Hayes wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if Hayes wins
Hamilton Township over Fairfield Union; CW beat both (5), if FU wins (5.5) Add .05 to ave. if FU wins
Amanda Clearcreek vs. Bloom Carroll; CW beat both (4.5)
Circleville over Logan Elm (0), if LE wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if LE wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 14
Olentangy over Hayes (0), if Hayes wins (6) Add .6 to ave. if Hayes wins
Teays Valley over Fairfield Union; CW beat both (5), if FU wins (5.5) Add .05 to ave. if FU wins
Logan Elm over Amanda Clearcreek; CW beat both (4.5), if AC wins (5) Add .05 to ave. if AC wins
Hamilton Township over Bloom Carroll; CW beat both (4.5), if BC wins (5.5) Add .1 to ave. if BC wins
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teach1coach2#10 Brookhaven (7-3) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 37.5/10 + 62/9.9 =16.47727 Projected Average (20.81514 if they beat Beechcroft week 9)
Week 1-8 L1=32, L2=68
Week 9 L1=0 Lose to Beechcroft (6-1) Add 4.33787 to ave. if Brookhaven wins
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Mifflin (6-2) & gained L2=32.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 4.33787 from ave. if Mifflin wins
New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 15.5
Lakota East over Fairfield (0), if Fairfield wins (6) Add .60606 to ave. if Fairfield wins
East vs. Centennial; Brookhaven beat both (5)
Northland vs. Whetstone; Brookhaven beat both (5.5)
Mifflin over Linden McKinley; Brookhaven beat both (5), if LM wins (5.5) Add .05050 to ave. if LM wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 10
Hamilton over Fairfield (0), if Fairfield wins (6) Add .60606 to ave. if Fairfield wins
Whetstone over Centennial; Brookhaven beat both (5), if Centennial wins (5.5) Add .05050 to ave. if Centennial wins
East vs. Linden McKinley; Brookhaven beat both (5)
Beechcroft over Northland (0), if Northland wins (5.5) Add .55555 to ave. if Northland wins
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#11 Hamilton Township (8-2) L1/10 + L2/10= 40/10 + 121.5/10=16.15 Projected Average
Week 1-8 L1=30.5, L2=74.5
Week 9 L1=5 beat Fairfield Union (2-6) & gained L2=8.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 1.35 from ave. if FU wins
Week 10 L1=4.5 beat Bloom Carroll (3-5) & gained L2=15 (through 8 weeks) Minus 1.95 from ave. if BC wins
New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 4.5
Jackson over Chillicothe (0), if Chilli wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Chilli wins
East Clinton over London (0), if London wins (4.5) Add .45 to ave. if London wins
Licking Valley over Bexley (0), if Bexley wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Bexley wins
Canal Winchester over Teays Valley (0), if TV wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if TV wins
Amanda Clearcreek vs. Bloom Carroll; HT beat both (4.5)
Circleville over Logan Elm (0), if LE wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if LE wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 19
Chillicothe over Portsmouth (4.5), if Portsmouth wins (0) Minus .45 from ave. if Portsmouth wins
Madison Plains over London (0), if London wins (4) Add .4 to ave. if London wins
Bexley over Whitehall (5), if Whitehall wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Bexley wins
Teays Valley over Fairfield Union; HT beat both (5), if FU wins (5.5) Add .05 to ave. if FU wins
Logan Elm over Amanda Clearcreek; HT beat both (4.5), if AC wins (5) Add .05 to ave. if AC wins
Circleville vs. Canal Winchester (0); HT lost to both
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#12 Ashland (6-4) L1/10 + L2/10= 30.5/10 + 117.5/10=14.8 Projected Average (19.0 if they beat Madison week 9)
Week 1-8 L1=25, L2=73.5
Week 9 L1=0 Lose to Madison Comprehensive (7-1) Add 4.2 to ave. if Ashland wins
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Lexington (5-3) & gained L2=24 (through 8 weeks) Minus 2.95 from ave. if Lexington wins
New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 10
Dover over Marietta (5.5), if Marietta wins (0) Minus .55 from ave. if Marietta wins
Columbiana over Sandusky (0), if Sandusky wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if Sandusky wins
West Holmes over Wooster (0), if Wooster wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Wooster wins
Clearfork over Orrville; Ashland beat both (4.5), if Orrville wins (5.5) Add .1 to ave. if Orrville wins
Mansfield over Lexington (0), if Lexington wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if Lexington wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 10
Dover over New Philadelphia (5.5), if NP wins (0) Minus .55 from ave. if NP wins
Bellevue over Sandusky (0), if Sandusky wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Sandusky wins
Wooster over Orrville; Ashland beat both (4.5), if Orrville wins (5.5) Add .1 to ave. if Orrville wins
West Holmes over Clear Fork (0), if Clear Fork wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if Clear Fork wins
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#13 Mount Vernon (5-5) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 27.5/10 + 110/9.9 =13.86111 Projected Average (19.05706 if they beat Olentangy week 9) (23.59695 if they ALSO beat New Albany week 10)
Week 1-8 L1=27.5 , L2=82.5
Week 9 L1=0 Lose to Olentangy (7-1) Add 5.19595 to ave. if MV wins
Week 10 L1=0 Lose to New Albany (6-2) Add 4.53989 to ave. if MV wins
New week 9 L2 from previous wins = 6
Jonathan Alder over Marion Harding (0), if MH wins (5) Add .45454 to ave. if MH wins
Zanesville over Cambridge (0), if Cambridge wins (5.5) Add.55555 to ave. if Cambridge wins
Big Walnut over Orange (0), if Orange wins (5.5) Add.55555 to ave. if Orange wins
Franklin Heights over Hayes; MV beat both (6), if Hayes wins (5.5) Minus .05050 from ave. if Hayes wins
New Albany over Watkins Memorial (0), if WM wins (5.5) Add.55555 to ave. if WM wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 21.5
Jonathan Alder over Marion Harding (0), if MH wins (5) Add.50505 to ave. if WH wins
Cambridge over Meadowbrook (4.5), if Meadowbrook wins (0) Minus .45454 from ave. if Meadowbrook wins
Orange over Watkins Memorial; MV beat both (5.5), if WM wins (6) Add.50505 to ave. if WM wins
Big Walnut over Franklin Heights (0), if FH wins (5.5) Add.55555 to ave. if FH wins
Olentangy vs. Hayes; MV lost to both (0) -
CatsFanInteresting analysis. I don't really like the current system, though. I see more and more schools trying to game the system by adding large schools from Canada or other states where the level of football play is not the same. So these schools get credited with beating a D1 school with a bunch of wins, and get a slew of points, even though it was a crappy opponent. OHSAA needs to decertify games against out-of-country oppoinents.
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teach1coach2Prediction as of 10/20/12:
#1 Tri-Valley hosts #8 Tecumseh
#2 Zanesville hosts #7 Canal Winchester
#3 Marion Franklin hosts #6 Franklin Heights
#4 New Albany hosts #5 Beechcroft
(#3 and #4 could easily switch.) PS This was Drew Pasteur’s prediction last week and I assume it stayed the same. The maximum win out and minimum win out matches Joe Eitel’s numbers for all teams listed. Last week I predicted 100% of the level 1 games among these teams and 80% of the level 2 games.
Definitely playing week 11:
#1 Tri-Valley Win 30.40 Lose 26.50 (Will host win or lose week 10).
#2 Zanesville Win 28.34 Lose 27.28 (Will host win or lose week 10. Need crazy stuff to happen to get #1 seed)
#3 Marion Franklin Win 26.87 Lose 24.45 (#3 and #4 seeds are too close to call. Host if win.)
#4 New Albany Win 26.35 Lose 23.05 (Host if win.)
#5 Beechcroft Win 24.50 Lose 20.96
#6 Licking Heights Win 23.75 Lose 22.3
Shoud be in.
#7 Canal Winchester Win 22.1 Lose 18.55 (Win and in. Lose and still likely in.)
#8 Tecumseh Win 21.02 Lose 17.54 (Win and in. Lose and maybe still in if WR loses.)
Some chance.
Needs Tecumseh to lose. Canal losing might help WR but it would be close. HT needs WR to lose as well.
#9 Walnut Ridge Win 18.7 Lose 15.1
#10 Hamilton Township Win 17.6 Lose 15.2
Realistically, these teams are OUT.
If the top 8 lose, the harbin average of all 8 is still higher than the teams below. All of these teams need Tecumseh, Walnut, Ridge, and Hamilton Township to lose. 17.54 is also Tecumseh’s win out minimum, so you also need some of your level 2 teams I predicted to lose to win. Also, MV needs Mifflin to lose and Brookhaven needs to beat Mifflin and have MV lose.
#11 Mifflin Win 17.21 Lose 13.29
#12 Mount Vernon Win 17.19 Lose 12.65
#13 Brookhaven Win 16.48 Lose 12.14
The math below starts with all teams winning week 10 (which is impossible since NA-MV and Haven-Mifflin play each other) and then gives average if they lose. Info given if you disagree with a pick so you can see how it changes average.
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#1 Tri-Valley (10-0) L1/10 + L2/10= 48.5/10 + 255.5/10=30.4 Projected Average (Win Out Max 31.0 Win Out Min 29.4) (Approx. 26.5 if beaten by Philo week 10)
Week 1-9 L1= 33.5, L2= 197.5
Week 10 L1=5 beat Philo (7-2) & gained L2= 34 (through 9 weeks) Minus 3.9 from ave. if Philo wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 24
Licking Valley over Heath (4.5), if Heath wins (0) Minus .45 from ave. if Heath wins
Maysville vs. Morgan; TV beat both (5)
Claymont over West Muskingum (0), if WM wins (5) Add .5 to ave. if WM wins
Dover over New Philadelphia (5.5), if NP wins (0) Minus .55 from ave. if NP wins
John Glenn over Crooksville; TV beat both (4), if Crooksville wins (5) Add .1 to ave. if Crooksville wins
New Lex vs. Sheridan; TV beat both (5)
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#2 Zanesville (9-1) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 46.5/10 + 234.5/9.9 =28.33686 Projected Average (Win Out Max 29.95302 Win Out Min 25.91264) (Approx. 27.28181 if beaten by Marietta week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=41 , L2=205.5
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Marietta (1-8 ) & gained L2=5 (through 9 weeks) Minus 1.05505 from ave. if Marietta wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 24
Lancaster over Newark (0), if Newark wins (6) Add .60606 to ave. if Newark wins
Licking Valley over Heath (4.5), if Heath wins (0) Minus .45454 from ave. if Heath wins
Ross over Talawanda (5.5), if Talawanda wins (0) Minus .55555 from ave. if Talawanda wins
St. Vincent St. Mary over Ursuline (0), if Ursuline wins (5) Add .50505 to ave. if Ursuline wins
Jonathan Alder over Watterson (5), if Watterson wins (0) Minus .50505 from ave. if Watterson wins
River View over Coshocton (4.5), if Coshocton wins (0) Minus .45454 from ave. if Coshocton wins
Dover over New Philadelphia (0), if NP wins (5) Add .50505 to ave. if NP wins
Cambridge over Meadowbrook (4.5), if Meadowbrook wins (0) Minus .45454 from ave. if Meadowbrook wins
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#3 Marion Franklin (9-1) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 46/10 + 215.5/9.9 =26.87272 Projected Average (Win Out Max 27.07473 Win Out Min 25.81212) (Approx. 24.45353 if beaten by South week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=41 , L2=177
Week 10 L1=5 beat South (4-5) & gained L2= 19 (through 9 weeks) Minus 2.41919 from ave. if South wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 24.5
Brookhaven over Mifflin (5.5), if Mifflin wins (0) Minus .55555 from ave. if Mifflin wins
Canal Winchester over Circleville (5), if Circleville wins (0) Minus .50505 from ave. if Circleville wins
West vs. Briggs; MF beat both (5.5)
Walnut Ridge over Independence; MF beat both (5), if Independence wins (5.5) Add .05050 to ave. if Independence wins
Eastmoor over Africentric; MF beat both (3.5), if Africentric wins (5) Add .15151 to ave. if Africentric wins
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#4 New Albany (8-2) L1/10 + L2/10= 45/10 + 218.5/10 =26.35 Projected Average (Win Out Max 26.4 Win Out Min 25.8 ) (Approx. 23.05 if beaten by Mount Vernon week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=39.5, L2=168.5
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Mount Vernon (5-4) & gained L2=27.5 (through 8 weeks) Minus 3.3 from ave. if MV wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 22.5
DeSales over George Washington (5.5), if GW wins (0) Minus .55 from ave. if GW wins
Orange over Watkins Memorial; NA beat both (5.5), if WM wins (6) Add .05 to ave. if WM wins
Big Walnut vs. Franklin Heights; NA beat both (5.5)
Olentangy vs. Hayes; NA beat both (6)
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#5 Beechcroft (8-1) L1/9 + L2/8.9= 43/9 + 175.5/8.9 =24.49687 Projected Average (Win Out Max 25.22719 Win Out Min 24.49687) (Approx. 20.96442 if beaten by Northland week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=37.5, L2=134
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Northland (5-4) & gained L2=26 (through 8 weeks) Minus 3.53245 from ave. if BU wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 15.5
Westerville Central over Dublin Jerome (0), if DJ wins (6) Add .67415 to ave. if DJ wins
Whetstone over Centennial; Beechcroft beat both (5), if Centennial wins (5.5) Add .05617 to ave. if Centennial wins
East vs. Linden McKinley; Beechcroft beat both (5)
Brookhaven vs. Mifflin; Beechcroft beat both (5.5)
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#6 Licking Heights (10-0) L1/10 + L2/10= 42.5/10 + 195/10=23.75 Projected Average (Win Out Max 24.35 Win Out Min 22.75) (Approx. 22.3 if beaten by Fisher Catholic week 10)
Week 1-9 L1= 39, L2=162.5
Week 10 L1=3.5 beat Fisher Catholic (3-6) & gained L2= 11 (through 9 weeks) Minus 1.45 from ave. if FC wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 21.5
Orange over Watkins Memorial (0), if WM wins (6) Add .6 to ave. if WM wins
Gallia Academy (5) over Jackson, if Jackson wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Jackson wins
Teays Valley over Fairfield Union (5), if FU wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if FU wins
Harvest Prep vs. Millersport; LH beat both (3.5)
Liberty Union vs. Grandview Heights; LH beat both (4)
West Jefferson vs. Berne Union; LH beat both (4)
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#7 Canal Winchester (8-2) L1/10 + L2/10= 41/10 + 180/10=22.1 Projected Average (Win Out Max 22.9 Win Out Min 22.1) (Approx. 18.55 if beaten by Circleville week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=36, L2=135.5
Week 10 L1=5 beat Circleville (7-2) & gained L2= 30.5 (through 9 weeks) Minus 3.55 from ave. if Circleville wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 14
Olentangy over Hayes (0), if Hayes wins (6) Add .6 to ave. if Hayes wins
Teays Valley over Fairfield Union; CW beat both (5), if FU wins (5.5) Add .05 to ave. if FU wins
Logan Elm over Amanda Clearcreek; CW beat both (4.5), if AC wins (5) Add .05 to ave. if AC wins
Hamilton Township over Bloom Carroll; CW beat both (4.5), if BC wins (5.5) Add .1 to ave. if BC wins
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#8 Tecumseh (8-2) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 42.5/10 + 166/9.9= 21.01767 Projected Average (Win Out Max 22.78533 Win Out Min 21.01767) (Approx. 17.53788 if beaten by Kenton Ridge week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=37.5, L2=126.5
Week 10 L1=5 beat Kenton Ridge (6-3) & gained L2=29.5 (through 9 weeks) Minus 3.47979 from ave. if KR wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 10
Xenia over Fairborn (0), if Fairborn wins (6) Add .60606 to ave. if Fairborn wins
Trotwood Madison over Butler (0), if Butler wins (5.5) Add .55555 to ave. if Butler wins
Urbana over Graham (0), if Graham wins (5) Add .50505 to ave. if Graham wins
Stebbins over Bellefontaine; Tecumseh beat both (5), if Bellefontaine wins (5.5) Add .05050 to ave. if Bellefontaine wins
Tippecanoe over Shawnee; Tecumseh beat both (5), if Shawnee wins (5.5) Add .05050 to ave. if Shawnee wins
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teach1coach2#9 Walnut Ridge (7-3) L1/10 + L2/10= 34.5/10 + 152.5/10 =18.7 Projected Average (Win Out Max 19.4 Win Out Min 18.2) (Approx. 15.1 if beaten by Independence week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=29.5 , L2=107.5
Week 10 L1=5 beat Independence (6-3) & gained L2= 31 (through 9 weeks) Minus 3.6 from ave. if Independence wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 14
Urbana over Graham (5), if Graham wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Graham wins
West vs. Briggs; WR beat both (5.5)
Eastmoor over Africentric; WR beat both (3.5), if Africentric wins (5) Add .15 to ave. if Africentric wins
Marion Franklin over South (0), if South wins (5.5) Add .55 to ave. if South wins
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#10 Hamilton Township (8-2) L1/10 + L2/10= 40/10 + 136/10=17.6 Projected Average (Win Out Max 18.1 Win Out Min 16.65) (Approx. 15.2 if beaten by Bloom Carroll week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=35.5, L2=97.5
Week 10 L1=4.5 beat Bloom Carroll (4-5) & gained L2=19.5 (through 9 weeks) Minus 2.4 from ave. if BC wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 19
Chillicothe over Portsmouth (4.5), if Portsmouth wins (0) Minus .45 from ave. if Portsmouth wins
Madison Plains over London (0), if London wins (4) Add .4 to ave. if London wins
Bexley over Whitehall (5), if Whitehall wins (0) Minus .5 from ave. if Bexley wins
Teays Valley over Fairfield Union; HT beat both (5), if FU wins (5.5) Add .05 to ave. if FU wins
Logan Elm over Amanda Clearcreek; HT beat both (4.5), if AC wins (5) Add .05 to ave. if AC wins
Circleville vs. Canal Winchester (0); HT lost to both
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#11 Mifflin (8-2) L1/10 + L2/9.8= 37.5/10 + 126.5/9.8 =17.20816 Projected Average (Win Out Max 18.43764 Win Out Min 16.59592) (Approx. 13.29082 if beaten by Brookhaven week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=37.5, L2=78.5
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Brookhaven (6-4) & gained L2=32 (through 9 weeks) Minus 3.91734 from ave. if Brookhaven wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 16
Westland over Central Crossing (6), if CC wins (0) Minus .61224 from ave. if CC wins
Orange over Watkins Memorial (0), if WM wins (6) Add .61224 to ave. if WM wins
Whetstone over Centennial; Mifflin beat both (5), if Centennial wins (5.5) Add .05612 to ave. if Centennial wins
East vs. Linden McKinley; Mifflin beat both (5)
Beechcroft over Northland (0), if Northland wins (5.5) Add .56112 to ave. if Northland wins
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#12 Mount Vernon (6-4) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 33/10 + 137.5/9.9 =17.18888 Projected Average (Win Out Max 18.40099 Win Out Min 16.734) (Approx. 12.64899 if beaten by New Albany week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=27.5 , L2=88
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat New Albany (7-3) & gained L2=39.5 (through 9 weeks) Minus 4.53989 from ave. if NA wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 10
St. Charles over Marion Harding (0), if MH wins (6) Add.60606 to ave. if MH wins
Cambridge over Meadowbrook (4.5), if Meadowbrook wins (0) Minus .45454 from ave. if Meadowbrook wins
Orange over Watkins Memorial; MV beat both (5.5), if WM wins (6) Add.05050 to ave. if WM wins
Big Walnut over Franklin Heights (0), if FH wins (5.5) Add.55555 to ave. if FH wins
Olentangy vs. Hayes; MV lost to both (0)
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#13 Brookhaven (7-3) L1/10 + L2/9.9= 37.5/10 + 126/9.9 =16.47727 Projected Average (Win Out Max 17.68938 Win Out Min 16.47727) (Approx. 12.1394 if beaten by Mifflin week 10)
Week 1-9 L1=32, L2=78.5
Week 10 L1=5.5 beat Mifflin (7-2) & gained L2=37.5 (through 9 weeks) Minus 4.33787 from ave. if Mifflin wins
New week 10 L2 from previous wins = 10
Hamilton over Fairfield (0), if Fairfield wins (6) Add .60606 to ave. if Fairfield wins
Whetstone over Centennial; Brookhaven beat both (5), if Centennial wins (5.5) Add .05050 to ave. if Centennial wins
East vs. Linden McKinley; Brookhaven beat both (5)
Beechcroft over Northland (0), if Northland wins (5.5) Add .55555 to ave. if Northland wins