BCBulldog
In my gut, this team is an 80 win team. However, there is an outside chance that they could pull off 90-95 wins. It will take a lot of good things coming together at once, but they aren't the same kind of longshots this team has hung its hopes on in the past. Here are the things I think must happen (in order of importance) for the Reds to make the playoffs.
1. They must stay healthy. This team does not have much depth, especially in the everyday positions.
1a. This team has to find a way to stay within 5 games of first through the break. If they do this, then maybe a trade deadline deal or two could be made to give them a boost to make a playoff push.
2. Jay Bruce must take a step forward as a hitter. He is more essential to their success this year than any one player. Keeping Brook Jacoby away from him will help the most.
3. Dusty Baker must get out of his own way and put together a consistent lineup that will give them the best chance to win. Thus, abandoning his conventional wisdom, veteran-loving, left-right-left-right, back of the baseball card, OBP is meaningless approaches of the past.
4. Edinson Volquez must come back healthy in August and be effective.
5. Bailey cannot regress again.
6. Phillips needs to return to the strong hitting (not power-hitting only) approach that he had before Baker and Jacoby tried to make him into a #4 hitter. He's a 3 or 5, maybe even a 2. 4 is insane.
7. While this may not make a difference for a playoff push, it is essential for the long-term success of this team: Chapman must be developed at the correct pace. Pushing him to the majors just to make a playoff push this year is not an option. If he makes the team otherwise, fine. But don't rush him. He is too valuable to let Baker destroy him for the sake of saving his own ass.