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WhatIfSports NFL Divisional round simulations

  • justincredible
    The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.
    WhatIfSports.com

    <table class="btb_info">
    <tr class="toprow"><th colspan="4"><div class="main_head"><span class="titleleft"></span><span class="title">NFL Divisional Playoffs</span><span class="titleright"></span></span></th></tr>
    <tr class="lowrow"><th>Matchup</th><th class="text_center">Win%</th><th class="text_center">Avg Score</th><th class="text_center"></th></tr>
    <tr class="even"><td>Arizona Cardinals</td><td class="text_center">16.1</td><td class="text_center">20</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100116018">Boxscore</a></td></tr>
    <tr class="even" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ <strong>New Orleans Saints</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>83.9</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>36</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=New Orleans Saints&vSeason=2009&vTeam=Arizona Cardinals">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>
    <tr class="odd"><td><strong>Dallas Cowboys</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>52.9</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>26</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100117016">Boxscore</a></td></tr>
    <tr class="odd" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ Minnesota Vikings</td><td class="text_center">47.1</td><td class="text_center">25</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=Minnesota Vikings&vSeason=2009&vTeam=Dallas Cowboys">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>
    <tr class="even"><td><strong>Baltimore Ravens</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>58.2</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>23</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100116011">Boxscore</a></td></tr>
    <tr class="even" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ Indianapolis Colts</td><td class="text_center">41.8</td><td class="text_center">22</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=Indianapolis Colts&vSeason=2009&vTeam=Baltimore Ravens">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>
    <tr class="odd"><td><strong>New York Jets</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>70.3</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>24</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100117024">Boxscore</a></td></tr>
    <tr class="odd" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ San Diego Chargers</td><td class="text_center">29.7</td><td class="text_center">19</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=San Diego Chargers&vSeason=2009&vTeam=New York Jets">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>
    </table>

    They picked 3/4 last week (missed GB/Ari).
  • mhs95_06
    How close did they say last week the GB/Ariz game was going to be?
  • justincredible
    26-22 Green Bay with Green Bay winning 65.2% of the time.
  • justincredible
    <table class="btb_info">
    <tr class="toprow"><th colspan="4"><div class="main_head"><span class="titleleft"></span><span class="title">NFL Wild Card Week</span><span class="titleright"></span></span></th></tr>
    <tr class="lowrow"><th>Matchup</th><th class="text_center">Win%</th><th class="text_center">Avg Score</th><th class="text_center"></th></tr>
    <tr class="even"><td>Philadelphia Eagles</td><td class="text_center">37.0</td><td class="text_center">17</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100109006">Boxscore</a></td></tr>
    <tr class="even" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ <strong>Dallas Cowboys</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>63.0</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>23</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=Dallas Cowboys&vSeason=2009&vTeam=Philadelphia Eagles">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>
    <tr class="odd"><td><strong>Baltimore Ravens</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>59.1</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>23</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100110017">Boxscore</a></td></tr>
    <tr class="odd" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ New England Patriots</td><td class="text_center">40.9</td><td class="text_center">21</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=New England Patriots&vSeason=2009&vTeam=Baltimore Ravens">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>
    <tr class="even"><td><strong>Green Bay Packers</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>65.2</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>26</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100110022">Boxscore</a></td></tr>
    <tr class="even" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ Arizona Cardinals</td><td class="text_center">34.8</td><td class="text_center">22</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=Arizona Cardinals&vSeason=2009&vTeam=Green Bay Packers">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>
    <tr class="odd"><td><strong>New York Jets</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>68.0</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>18</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100109004">Boxscore</a></td></tr>
    <tr class="odd" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ Cincinnati Bengals</td><td class="text_center">32.0</td><td class="text_center">14</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=Cincinnati Bengals&vSeason=2009&vTeam=New York Jets">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>
    </table>
  • icskins
    It does seem that they favor close games. Have you looked at them through the year? Have they predicted any blowouts?
  • justincredible
    icskins wrote: It does seem that they favor close games. Have you looked at them through the year? Have they predicted any blowouts?
    Overall Performance (through 1/11/10)
    Overall Winning Percentage: 69.9%
    Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 58.1%*
    Game of the Week: 13-4
    ATS Lock of the Week: 12-5
    Upset of the Week: 7-10
    NOTE: Overall performance does NOT include playoffs performance

    http://whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=2009NFLSEASON
  • hoops23
    Whatifsports is pretty accurate when it comes to predicting a winner...

    I think they had a 5 or 6 year run at picking the Super Bowl winner..

    They also have some pretty sweet games.
  • gut
    I can't believe NO wins 80%+ and ARI only averages 20.

    And I really can't see NYJ beating SD. Sanchez won't be able to put together 2 good playoff games, I don't think.

    Don't disagree with the BAL prediction at all. Just surprised it'd pick them (and significantly at 58%) over a team that could have probably gone undefeated.
  • justincredible
    Jets shouldn't need to rely on Sanchez too much in this game. He'll probably only get 10-15 attempts as I don't see San Diego stopping the Jets running game. If San Diego jumps out to a big lead the Jets are likely screwed, but if they can keep it close and control the clock I like their chances.
  • Ironman92
    Did they factor in the NFL loving Manning?
  • gut
    justincredible wrote: Jets shouldn't need to rely on Sanchez too much in this game. He'll probably only get 10-15 attempts as I don't see San Diego stopping the Jets running game. If San Diego jumps out to a big lead the Jets are likely screwed, but if they can keep it close and control the clock I like their chances.
    Yeah, but if he isn't effective in those 15 or so attempts, it's going to be tough to put points on the board and SD WILL put points on the board.

    Steeler fans know a one-dimensional ground game does not get it done without efficient passing.
  • justincredible
    <table class="btb_info">
    <tr class="toprow"><th colspan="4"><div class="main_head"><span class="titleleft"></span><span class="title">NFL Conference Championships</span><span class="titleright"></span></span></th></tr>
    <tr class="lowrow"><th>Matchup</th><th class="text_center">Win%</th><th class="text_center">Avg Score</th><th class="text_center"></th></tr>
    <tr class="even"><td>Minnesota Vikings</td><td class="text_center">45.8</td><td class="text_center">26</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100124018">Boxscore</a></td></tr>

    <tr class="even" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ <strong>New Orleans Saints</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>54.2</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>29</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=New Orleans Saints&vSeason=2009&vTeam=Minnesota Vikings">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>
    <tr class="odd"><td><strong>New York Jets</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>52.9</strong></td><td class="text_center"><strong>22</strong></td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20100124011">Boxscore</a></td></tr>
    <tr class="odd" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #747474"><td> @ Indianapolis Colts</td><td class="text_center">47.1</td><td class="text_center">21</td><td><a target="_blank" href="http://www.whatifsports.com/nfl/default.asp?hSeason=2009&hTeam=Indianapolis Colts&vSeason=2009&vTeam=New York Jets">Simulate Game</a></td></tr>

    </table>
  • justincredible
    The Jets/Saints SB that the computers predicted when the playoffs started is still alive.
  • MrPoke
    I'll bet on a Vikings/Colts matchup.
  • justincredible
    MrPoke wrote: I'll bet on a Vikings/Colts matchup.
    I'll bet you three...no, four dollars.
  • Laley23
    justincredible wrote:
    MrPoke wrote: I'll bet on a Vikings/Colts matchup.
    I'll bet you three...no, four dollars.
    Guys should bet 12 dollars. Then the winner can get out of this shit site and go pay for a good, not so poorly run site. :)
  • justincredible
    Laley23 wrote:
    justincredible wrote:
    MrPoke wrote: I'll bet on a Vikings/Colts matchup.
    I'll bet you three...no, four dollars.
    Guys should bet 12 dollars. Then the winner can get out of this shit site and go pay for a good, not so poorly run site. :)
    You shut up, you! :)
  • MrPoke
    justincredible wrote:
    MrPoke wrote: I'll bet on a Vikings/Colts matchup.
    I'll bet you three...no, four dollars.
    $13 dollars, then I can pay JJ and buy 100 sour patch kids.
  • justincredible
    MrPoke wrote:
    justincredible wrote:
    MrPoke wrote: I'll bet on a Vikings/Colts matchup.
    I'll bet you three...no, four dollars.
    $13 dollars, then I can pay JJ and buy 100 sour patch kids.
    Scratch that bet. I'll just take the money and buy myself 1300 swedish fish.