Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Wild Card Game

• Ironman92

  

  Midstate01;1511402 wrote:Latos' wife attacked, meso's grandma verbally abused,and Jim day's car vandalized after the game.

  Watching the game there seemed to be about 20 people wearing Reds stuff in the seats.
• Azubuike24

  

  Ironman92;1511502 wrote:Watching the game there seemed to be about 20 people wearing Reds stuff in the seats.

  Homefield advantage? For 1 game? That's not pressure. Pressure is game 7 of the World Series. You know, the game I've never been to...
  
  Not a direct quote, paraphrased for clarity.
  
  /Dusty'ed
• Ironman92

  

  Azubuike24;1511532 wrote:Homefield advantage? For 1 game? That's not pressure. Pressure is game 7 of the World Series. You know, the game I've never been to...
  
  Not a direct quote, paraphrased for clarity.
  
  /Dusty'ed

  Fuck I'm so God Damn tired of him. Give me a manager with a fucking pulse.
• Classyposter58

  

  Ironman92;1511657 wrote:Fuck I'm so God Damn tired of him. Give me a manager with a fucking pulse.

  Haha Jimmy L seems like he's sleeping all day yet gets the job done. I honestly think Phillips needs to be more of a leader like Torii Hunter is for the Tigers. IMO that is the biggest difference about the 2013 Tigers, the leadership Hunter provides. Phillips should become more of that
• Ironman92

  

  Classyposter58;1511726 wrote:Haha Jimmy L seems like he's sleeping all day yet gets the job done. I honestly think Phillips needs to be more of a leader like Torii Hunter is for the Tigers. IMO that is the biggest difference about the 2013 Tigers, the leadership Hunter provides. Phillips should become more of that

  I will admit Hunter and Phillips are very very similar.....Torii has grown up sooner (I know he's 5 years older)
  
  Leyland demands respect and will let an umpire know what he's thinking. Dusty was mad 1 time this season while discussing with the umps....every other time out he just gave the courtesy appearance to defend his players.
• se-alum

  

  Nobody from the players right down to the manager ever shows any emotion on this team, outside of Todd Frazier and the occasional "Fuck" tirade by Votto. There are no player leaders on the Reds team, nobody to rip ass when everyone is playing like it's the first game of the year when, in reality, it's a win or go home situation. Give me Ozzie Guillen over Dusty Baker, any day.
• SportsAndLady

  

  I will take Ryan freel over dusty. Anybody.
• justincredible

  

  I would not take Ozzie or Freel over Dusty. Ozzie is a psychopath and Freel is dead. Okay, maybe I'd take Freel.
• thavoice

  WHo will the reds keep next year? I heard there is some new rule that if a team that isnt in the bottom ten signs a big free agent they lose a top pick?
• thavoice

  Teams eventually take up the personality of their manager.
  
  The reds laid back attitude I think hurt them.
• Azubuike24

  

  thavoice;1511886 wrote:WHo will the reds keep next year? I heard there is some new rule that if a team that isnt in the bottom ten signs a big free agent they lose a top pick?

  To receive draft pick compensation for a player, a team must extend a qualifying offer to be at least 13.3M (may be up to 14M) on a 1 year deal. If a player is extended this, they may choose to accept on a 1 year deal or decline, giving that team a sandwich pick in the upcoming draft (between picks 1-10 in the draft and after any other deferred picks from a year ago (for instance, the Jays will get a pick at spot 11 this year because of not signing their 1st rounder a year ago, so the compensation picks will start at 32 (I believe)).
  
  Shin Soo Choo will be given a qualifying offer, he will decline, the Reds will get a pick. He's seeking the potential $100M deal. You can assume with 100% confidence that his offer wouldn't even be considered and the Reds are already scouting for this pick.
  
  Bronson Arroyo is reportedly seeking a 2 or 3-year deal between 10-13M/yr, at least what we can gather from his statements (he feels he could be worth 3yr/13M). With that said, it's likely he could decline the qualifying offer if given one, but lets say for some reason he hears the market for him may not be there. It could become a game of cat and mouse for the Reds to make that offer, with the hope he doesn't accept. For sure, they don't have the money to spend, and on top of that, they don't need to spend any extra money they do have on a SP, let alone on a guy who is their 5th best pitcher, at best.
  
  Choo walks, Reds receive pick
  Arroyo walks, Reds possibly receive pick
  Izturis walks, unrestricted free agent
  
  That leaves 22 players on the current roster back, 23 if you get anything from Broxton (not expected, but including him because it's the only other major league/guaranteed contract). See below...
  
  Cueto 10M
  Latos 7M
  *Bailey 8M
  *Leake 5M
  Cingrani .5M
  
  Broxton 7M
  Marshall 6M
  Chapman 4M
  Ondrusek 1.5M
  *Simon 1.5M
  *LeCure 1.5M
  Hoover .5M
  
  *Hanigan 3M
  Mesoraco .5M
  Votto 12M
  Phillips 11M
  Cozart .5M
  Frazier .5M
  Hannahan 1M
  Bruce 10M
  Hamilton .5M
  Ludwick 7M
  *Heisey 2M
  *Paul 1.5M
  
  *Projected arbitration totals from another board I frequent.
  
  Projected payroll, RIGHT NOW, is at $104M.
• thavoice

  Good info, thanks.
  Choo most def will be gone because of his superasshole agent.
  
  Wont shed too many tears for Arroyo. He has been a very serviceable pitcher and ya never had to worry about him missing starts, but he doesnt have much left in the tank, maybe a year or so, but not to warrant paying him a lot of money. Cingrani will fill in quite nicely and the staff will be nasty.
• Azubuike24

  

  Agree with you. Hopefully, health for Latos and Cingrani checks out and we go into 2014 with that rotation. Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Cingrani and Leake is still the best rotation in the NL.
  
  The problems arise elsewhere.
  
  Where does the money come from? Obviously, IMO, you're spending way too much on a sub-par bench. Hanigan 3M? Paul 1.5M? Heisey 2M? Hannahan 2M? If you're going to make some sacrifices or creative moves, that is where I would start. You could non-tender Heisey and/or Paul, and rely on someone like Donald Lutz or bring back Derrick Robinson. Or look outside the organization. Certainly, there's nothing in the system ready so it would have to be someone outside.
  
  Who else could you move offensively? Frazier, Mesoraco and Cozart, while not great, are average MLB players (with varying degrees of upside) who are incredibly cost-efficient. You then have Votto, Phillips and Bruce who aren't being moved. Your top prospect is a CF and leadoff hitter (2 of the team's biggest needs), so it's almost a given he assumes both of those roles until proven otherwise. This leave Ryan Ludwick, owed a guaranteed 7M next year and an option of 9.5M in 2015 (4M buyout for the team to terminate). It would be different if he was coming off a big year, but just the opposite. He's a risk that the Reds will assume and nobody else would. However, assuming he comes back and produces, the marginal value you get by attempting to move him and finding someone else is difficult to gauge. You would need to basically find someone to take his entire salary and believe you can find another 2 outfielders (starting LF and quality backup) for less than that price. It's a long shot, but I believe the Reds have to explore this as the only real option on the offensive front.
  
  Who could you move on the pitching staff? In my opinion, this is where any moves will be made from. Trading a starter (Bailey or Leake the most likely) would net you something of quality. Both will see a big bump in salary, but both are young and could be used to build a staff with. I'd say Latos or Cueto, but the former will be the guy the Reds extend and the latter is way too much of a "selling low" guy right now. He's far more valuable to risk keeping around and righting his health woes. Another option is in relief. You could try to sell someone on Broxton. Unlikely, given that he may not pitch until May at the earliest. You could consider dealing Chapman or Marshall, which IMO, is where you need to look. Especially Marshall. If all he is going to be is a left-handed specialist, he's not worth his salary. While I disliked both, we got Manny Parra and Zach Duke for nothing and both were at least serviceable. Everyone else, except maybe Ondrusek, is far more valuable than their salary. We have other guys who could fill Logan's role, so that could be an easy 1.5M to free up.
  
  The way I see it is the Reds have 104M committed to 2014. Their payroll this year was 110M total. With the new TV deal and a record attendance, we could see that jump maybe a few percentage points, but even so, there's not a lot of room to really make much of a splash. The front office is going to need to get creative...and I'm not so confident in that happening.
• Heretic

  

  like_that;1510277 wrote:Pirates lose and rapistberger tears ACL throwing out first pitch.

  What quarterback tore his ACL again? lol
• Rotinaj

  

  Heretic;1512715 wrote:What quarterback tore his ACL again? lol

  Plz neg yourself.
• thavoice

  Azubuike24;1512153 wrote:Agree with you. Hopefully, health for Latos and Cingrani checks out and we go into 2014 with that rotation. Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Cingrani and Leake is still the best rotation in the NL.
  
  The problems arise elsewhere.
  
  Where does the money come from? Obviously, IMO, you're spending way too much on a sub-par bench. Hanigan 3M? Paul 1.5M? Heisey 2M? Hannahan 2M? If you're going to make some sacrifices or creative moves, that is where I would start. You could non-tender Heisey and/or Paul, and rely on someone like Donald Lutz or bring back Derrick Robinson. Or look outside the organization. Certainly, there's nothing in the system ready so it would have to be someone outside.
  
  Who else could you move offensively? Frazier, Mesoraco and Cozart, while not great, are average MLB players (with varying degrees of upside) who are incredibly cost-efficient. You then have Votto, Phillips and Bruce who aren't being moved. Your top prospect is a CF and leadoff hitter (2 of the team's biggest needs), so it's almost a given he assumes both of those roles until proven otherwise. This leave Ryan Ludwick, owed a guaranteed 7M next year and an option of 9.5M in 2015 (4M buyout for the team to terminate). It would be different if he was coming off a big year, but just the opposite. He's a risk that the Reds will assume and nobody else would. However, assuming he comes back and produces, the marginal value you get by attempting to move him and finding someone else is difficult to gauge. You would need to basically find someone to take his entire salary and believe you can find another 2 outfielders (starting LF and quality backup) for less than that price. It's a long shot, but I believe the Reds have to explore this as the only real option on the offensive front.
  
  Who could you move on the pitching staff? In my opinion, this is where any moves will be made from. Trading a starter (Bailey or Leake the most likely) would net you something of quality. Both will see a big bump in salary, but both are young and could be used to build a staff with. I'd say Latos or Cueto, but the former will be the guy the Reds extend and the latter is way too much of a "selling low" guy right now. He's far more valuable to risk keeping around and righting his health woes. Another option is in relief. You could try to sell someone on Broxton. Unlikely, given that he may not pitch until May at the earliest. You could consider dealing Chapman or Marshall, which IMO, is where you need to look. Especially Marshall. If all he is going to be is a left-handed specialist, he's not worth his salary. While I disliked both, we got Manny Parra and Zach Duke for nothing and both were at least serviceable. Everyone else, except maybe Ondrusek, is far more valuable than their salary. We have other guys who could fill Logan's role, so that could be an easy 1.5M to free up.
  
  The way I see it is the Reds have 104M committed to 2014. Their payroll this year was 110M total. With the new TV deal and a record attendance, we could see that jump maybe a few percentage points, but even so, there's not a lot of room to really make much of a splash. The front office is going to need to get creative...and I'm not so confident in that happening.

  I see, and sure hope so, that Cozart, Mes and Fraz are on the upside of their career. ZC finished strong the last 1/3 of the season. Combination of him getting better and moving to a better spot in the lineup for him? I think Frazier will be a 20/75+ guy and play solid defense, and DM was 9/42 in 350 or so plate appearances, and is handeling the staff. I think he goes in as the starter, and a starter should play 130-140 games and get over 500 appearances.
  
  I am optimistic about those three, but I hope it isnt like the '99 season when Taubensee, Reese and Casey had pretty much career seasons and tailed off for the most part.
  
  Right handed power is what they need, and Frazer will give them SOME of that, but need a thumper in LF. Ludwick is not that guy. PItching wise...they are solid and I wouldnt change much. Will AC be a starter next year? DB won out and he stayed as the closer. I almost think he can be trade bait as I think there are enough live arms in the BP to be able to come very close to his save percentage. Wont get the K/IP as AC, but still good enough to put the reds in the same position as they have been in.
• like_that

  

  Heretic;1512715 wrote:What quarterback tore his ACL again? lol

  Not the QB of a winless team unfortunately.