Dustyball vs Moneyball - Game 1

• se-alum

  

  The only thing keeping me calm right now is the fact that this is what I consider the dog days of the season. June and July seems to be when teams kinda just settle in an cruise. I just keep telling myself this team will go on a nice post all-star run like they did last year.
• Azubuike24

  

  To right the ship...
  
  1. Bullpen must be healthy. Marshall and Broxton back, possibly another arm.
  2. Defense has to improve. The Reds are still average/slightly above on D, but for the last 3 years they have been top 1-3 in the NL.
  3. The rotation needs to be dialed in. We clearly can see that Arroyo and Bailey are question marks. While he has a damn near 2.5 ERA, I don't trust Leake. I still maintain that for this team to win in the postseason, regardless of the pen, hitting or defense, you need your "best possible lights out/match-up" starters out there. This means Cueto, Latos and Cingrani. Whoever is #4 is probably whoever fits best as a starter and not a bullpen guy, which is probably Leake or Arroyo as neither would be that effective in the pen, IMO. Still, you can't afford to have say Leake and Arroyo in a game 3 and 4. In low-scoring, tight games, the odds of big innings is just too great.
• thavoice

  Azubuike24;1463827 wrote:To right the ship...
  
  1. Bullpen must be healthy. Marshall and Broxton back, possibly another arm.
  2. Defense has to improve. The Reds are still average/slightly above on D, but for the last 3 years they have been top 1-3 in the NL.
  3. The rotation needs to be dialed in. We clearly can see that Arroyo and Bailey are question marks. While he has a damn near 2.5 ERA, I don't trust Leake. I still maintain that for this team to win in the postseason, regardless of the pen, hitting or defense, you need your "best possible lights out/match-up" starters out there. This means Cueto, Latos and Cingrani. Whoever is #4 is probably whoever fits best as a starter and not a bullpen guy, which is probably Leake or Arroyo as neither would be that effective in the pen, IMO. Still, you can't afford to have say Leake and Arroyo in a game 3 and 4. In low-scoring, tight games, the odds of big innings is just too great.

  RE: #3. I dont have really any numbers to back it up but it seems like come the post season that, with everything else being equal, that power pitching wins over finesse. I content this, and poor hitting, was a reason why the braves didnt win more titles than they did. Over the long season finesse pitchers can work their magic, frustrate hitters, etc, but when it comes down to crunch time everything is more maginfied and power pitchers win out, mostly because they can make mistakes and get away with them more because of their velocity. Same sort of reason why you see power pitchers as closer instead of finesse guys. I really like Mike Leake, dude is becoming an extremely good pitcher and fun to watch, a poor mans greg maddux.
  I think the reds need to be careful with Cingrani. You know he will be needed in the rotation again so they still have to make sure he stays sharp. Best case scenario is Marshall comes back strong and Cingrani can pitch every 5th day at AAA and work on his secondary pitches. He will not be able to do that as a releiver in close games.
  Arroyo...pretty much at the end of his career but still serviceable. He will still go out and pitch every 5th day and give yo uinnings. If he struggles early in a game, which he does at times, he still battles and eats up innings.
  I am more concerned with Bailey. He seems to be stuck in some sort of rut lately.
  
  
  RE #1. Agreed. They need a lefty they can depend on in the 8th becuase DB wont use Chapman for more than 3 outs. I think the guys they have can right the ship.
  
  I think the defense is good enough. The downfall of this team has been at bat and consistantly scoring runs. They have not been very clutch.
  All in all..the team is right where they need to be. The cards cannot keep this up...can they?
  
  I still dont think this team has the makeup to win it all though. Just not enough clutch guys. With BP not blazing hot like he was early..this team is just misfiring on most cylinders.
• SportsAndLady

  

  We'll get our RBI guy back too.. Ludwick. That's huge.
• thavoice

  SportsAndLady;1463846 wrote:We'll get our RBI guy back too.. Ludwick. That's huge.

  But not for awhile.
  If you are counting on a soon to be 35 yr old, coming off a shoulder injury, who hasnt played in 4+ months, who has had a nice career but nothing spectacular, to be the savior for this team then I wouldnt be that confident!
  Def could help solidify the lineup but I am not that optimistic he will be that serviceable.
• Azubuike24

  

  I have my doubts whether Ludwick has any impact on this season. His injury severity was really downplayed. I mean he won't swing a bat until the All Star break.
  
  Thavoice, I agree. Which is why, IMO, you can't afford to pitch Arroyo at all in a playoff game. However, he's Dusty's 3rd guy, which is unfortunate.
• thavoice

  Azubuike24;1463869 wrote:I have my doubts whether Ludwick has any impact on this season. His injury severity was really downplayed. I mean he won't swing a bat until the All Star break.
  
  Thavoice, I agree. Which is why, IMO, you can't afford to pitch Arroyo at all in a playoff game. However, he's Dusty's 3rd guy, which is unfortunate.

  I didnt get to see any of the postseason last year, I was in the desert of California for a month, but I would venture to say that arroyo will be the 5th option to start if the reds make it this year. I honestly couldnt only see him throwing in a game that the reds are getting blown out.
• Azubuike24

  

  I hope you're right. I'd be fine with Latos, Cueto, Bailey and Leake, despite Homer's recent struggles and that he's no better this year than Arroyo.
• Rotinaj

  

  Ludwick was huge for us towards the middle/end of last season but I just don't see him making much of an impact this year. Getting Choo and BP back to normal are much more important IMO.
• thavoice

  and he very well may do something similiar this year, but reds fans need to be cautious to EXPECT it to happen.
  
  We cannot underestimae the mental lift it may give the team. He will be coming back in the dog days of summer and it may be enough to uplift the whole team. He may not put up great numbers but his prescence could re energize the team at the time of the season that is needed.