Fantasy Tight End Dilemma - help needed!

• BigAppleBuckeye

  

  I am absolutely torn on who to start at tight end. I am in the Final 4, so a win this weekend would put me in my fantasy Super Bowl. The choices:
  
  *Jason Witten at New Orleans
  *Fred Davis vs. NY Giants
  
  Witten is the better player, and I have started him all season. The Cowboys' offense has improved, and one would assume they will need to pass a lot to keep up with the Saints. However, Witten only has 1 TD all-season, and I read a crazy stat today where the Saints defense has only given up TWO passing TDs at home all-season.
  
  Davis has 3 TDs the past 2 weeks, and the Giants give up the most fantasy points to tight ends in the league. He is more of a 4-5 catch guy, but gets red zone looks.
  
  What do you think?
• Nate

  I'd go Davis.
• charliehustle14

  Davis.
  
  I wish I had one of those guys. I've had to start Zach Miller all year (not very good) and now that he's out, I know have to start Todd 'Great 2 years ago' Heap.
• BigAppleBuckeye

  

  I have wavered, going back and forth. If I go Davis, it would eat me alive if Witten gets 11 grabs for 125 and a TD. But if I start Davis, and Witten gets like 40 yards with no score, then watching Davis score against my Giants on Monday Night would be double the pain. Ughhhh!
• hasbeen

  

  Witten is my favorite player so I'm a bit biased, but I'm also pretty good at fantasy football.
  
  Dallas' offense has been pretty good recently and if they are going to be successful the ball needs to be in the hands of Witten at least 7 times. I don't know if you are in a PPR league, but that's money. His lack of scoring sucks, but everyone knows he should be getting in the end zone.
  
  Davis has had a damn good year and the NFC East games have become fairly high scoring. Davis could have a great week or he could have a mediocre week.
  
  If it were me, I'd start Witten, but Davis isn't a bad start either.
• BigAppleBuckeye

  

  pnhasbeen wrote: Witten is my favorite player so I'm a bit biased, but I'm also pretty good at fantasy football.
  
  Dallas' offense has been pretty good recently and if they are going to be successful the ball needs to be in the hands of Witten at least 7 times. I don't know if you are in a PPR league, but that's money. His lack of scoring sucks, but everyone knows he should be getting in the end zone.
  
  Davis has had a damn good year and the NFC East games have become fairly high scoring. Davis could have a great week or he could have a mediocre week.
  
  If it were me, I'd start Witten, but Davis isn't a bad start either.

  Nice post ... I have very similar thinking. Yes, our league is PPR, so I am pretty sure I will get a good game out of Witten, with or without a TD. I think Davis has an equal chances of 6 catches for 80 yards and a score as he does to get 2 catches for 10 yards. Leaning toward Witten, at least for now ...
• hasbeen

  

  This is how I'd figure it:
  Witten has a high upside(i.e. 8+ catches and over a 100 yards), but also has the better "average" day.
  If you want to take a risk, go with Davis because the probability is he could have the "bigger" day, however, the difference if Davis has an average day and Witten has an average day, Witten will probably get a few more points.
  
  At this point in the season, unless I'm the extreme underdog I'm playing the consistent guy unless I have a gut feeling.
• newarkcatholicfan

  

  Fred Davis
• killer_ewok

  

  What about Green Bay's Jermichael Finley (@ Pittsburgh) or Washington's Fred Davis (NY Giants)? Who should I start?
• sleeper

  

  Davis. Finley will disappoint guaranteed.
• Tony Romo

  Always start Jason Witten, he is always my first look.