JMO.... I think he will return this year.
From an early age he has had one goal in golf. Beat all of Jack's records. One can not do that on the sidelines.
I would like to see him play in Hawaii, deal with the national media, and play golf. Prove to them that he is not a train wreck waiting to happen and the national media will disappear. The golf beat writers will not F with Tiger because they want to continue to get interviews the rest of his career. Then he can tend to his family matters with whatever path they choose to travel.
The only reason Tiger would not play this year?? If there is any truth to the HGH Performance enhancing drug story. He would be afraid of tarnishing his storied career with that info. The PGA tour just suspended their first player (Doug Barron) for performance enhancers. ????
My guess... By the Masters at the latest. Hopefully Hawaii, golf needs his incredible golf talent.