"The Reds can't beat the Contenders"

• Mooney44Cards

  

  Hmmmm, this is something I've heard a lot from the naysayers. Basically that the Reds can beat up on all the crappy NL Central teams but come playoff time, they're gonna get beat up on by Atlanta, or Philly, or San Diego, or whoever during the playoffs. Where does this sentiment come from? Well, from the Reds regular season records against these teams. Lets take a gander, shall we?
  
  San Diego: 1-2
  This series was played in late April and I remember it vividly. This was a bad series. We played like shit. We lost Friday. The Saturday game was so bad....thats the 5-0 game with a bunch of base-running blunders. After the game, the mood in the clubhouse was so tense that Dusty refused to talk to the media for the first time in his managerial career. There was a closed-door meeting between Dusty and the players. Who knows what was said, but the Reds have been on a mission since. The next day we came out and beat the Padres 5-4.
  
  Atlanta: 2-3
  Every single game in this series has been relatively close. Actually all but 1 have come down to the wire. The 2-game series in May was crazy. In game 1 the Braves won on a walk-off hit by rookie phenom Jason Heyward. Game 2 was the mind blowing meltdown topped off by the walk-off grand slam. The 3 game series in Cincinnati was great, all 3 games were close, the Reds won 2, and Atlanta won a nail-biter 6-4.
  
  Philly: 2-5
  Truly, all 7 games were virtually down to the wire. The Reds won 2 out of 3 in Cincinnati in June. The game they lost was an awesome playoff caliber game where Brad Lidge blew the save by giving up a huge 3-run blast to Joey Votto in the bottom of the 9th (biggest HR of the year by the Reds IMO) only to have the Phillies come back and win in extras. We all remember the sweep in Philly. 3 extra-inning games and a 1-0 game. Among those extra inning losses was another meltdown in the 9th after a gem pitched by Mike Leake, and a loss after Travis Wood threw 8 perfect innings.
  
  Now what does this tell us about the Reds? Not much if you ask me. They can certainly compete with these teams, and I'm not concerned that they seemed to choke late in many of these games. 1)Some of these games were an awful long time ago and 2) Its the playoffs, anything could happen, and this team is hot at the right time.
• Ironman92

  

  You can't win in the playoffs if you don't play in the playoffs!
  
  I think Reds/Braves would go all 5 or all 7 with either team winning.
  
  I think Reds/Padres would be extremly difficult to predict
  
  I think the good and lucky Phillies would win in 4 of 5 game or 5 of 7 game
• Mooney44Cards

  

  And the beauty of the playoffs is that anything could happen. If we were pretty much dominated by each of those teams I might be worried, but our pitching and hitting could click all at once and carry us to the WS. As it is, I feel confident that the Reds could win a 5 or 7 game series against any of their potential NL playoff opponents. Whether they will or not is for them to decide. I'm not going to predict anything because that's meaningless.
• dave

  There's a reason the Reds lose most of the close games you talk about and win the ones against the bad teams. It's not just variance.
  
  That being said, it should be a fun postseason. I'm hoping the Braves can take 4 or 5 games against the Phillies the rest of the way and the Giants slide into the wild card.
• Mooney44Cards

  

  dave;472190 wrote:There's a reason the Reds lose most of the close games you talk about and win the ones against the bad teams. It's not just variance.
  
  That being said, it should be a fun postseason. I'm hoping the Braves can take 4 or 5 games against the Phillies the rest of the way and the Giants slide into the wild card.

  Yeah its because their bullpen blew until they decided to start playing come August.
  
  Also: Chapman!
• Mooney44Cards

  

  Amazing stat I just looked up: the bullpen earned the loss in 4 of the 5 losses to Philly (the other being a 1-0 loss by Matt Maloney) and in all 3 losses to Atlanta.
• dave

  that is an amazing stat. with the days off in the playoffs i like the reds chances with ondrusek, rhodes, chapman, masset, coco having the ability to go 5+ innings every game.
• Mooney44Cards

  

  dave;472201 wrote:that is an amazing stat. with the days off in the playoffs i like the reds chances with ondrusek, rhodes, chapman, masset, coco having the ability to go 5+ innings every game.

  
  + Bill Bray vs. Ryan Howard......0-8 lifetime. 4 K's.
  
  Say what you will about Bill Bray, but two of the most dangerous hitters in the NL, Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard, are a combined 0-18 against him.
• dave

  yeah Bray and DRH make Howard look bad. I'm not sure Bray will even make the roster but against the Phillies I hope he would.
• karen lotz

  

  Ironman92;472179 wrote:I think the good and lucky Phillies would win in 4 of 5 game or 5 of 7 game

  
  
  I just saw how the Phillies scored the winning run tonight. Unbelievable. The catcher for the fucking Brewers didn't even attempt to catch the ball coming in from Braun on the sac fly, allowing the ball to roll to the backstop and the winning run to score. The Philles are a good team no doubt, but they are getting some gift wins through some horrid play/umpiring.
• Azubuike24

  

  There is some good news. If the Reds happen to keep the best record in the NL, they will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Now, they play just as well outside of GABP, but it would be nice to know they have that secured.
• Heretic

  

  Better to suck against contenders and make it to the playoffs for the opportunity to get a second chance against them than to be in the Saint Louie position of potentially not being in the playoffs because they suck against bottom-feeders.
• wes_mantooth

  

  Heretic;472246 wrote:Better to suck against contenders and make it to the playoffs for the opportunity to get a second chance against them than to be in the Saint Louie position of potentially not being in the playoffs because they suck against bottom-feeders.

  
  Exactly....whatever it takes to get in.
• norwalk

  Interesting stat on the earlier losses against St. Louis and Philly being the bullpen got the loss. If this team continues to click, get everyone back healthy and the bullpen continues to dominate.........who knows? We all remember what a dominate bullpen can do for you in a playoff / World Series run.
• Ironman92

  

  Another win today and a decent series in Colorado and playing Philadelphia in the first round is the worst case scenario
  
  Halladay vs Arroyo...in cincy
  Hamels vs Cueto...in Cincy
  Oswalt vs Wood in Philly
  Halladay vs Arroyo/Bailey/Volquez...in Philly
  Hamels/Oswalt vs Cueto/Arroyo...in Cincy
  
  Hitting Oswlat of late this looks pretty tight...but regardless...I don't want any part of the Phillies in the 1st round. I swear I've never seen them have bad fortune in the playoffs.
• sherm03

  

  The Reds might not have to worry about playing Philly in the first round. With the way Atlanta has been melting down...Philly might win the division and Atlanta may be the wild card team.
• jordo212000

  

  The Reds can't beat the contenders

  Funny how quickly you forget that you were one of the people saying something like this. And you did it twice. Two times during the first few months of the season you declared the Reds dead, vanished, (Reds keep winning), and then you return and act as if nothing has happened and act as if you were always very high on the Reds.
  
  Heck you even started a thread about them not making the playoffs
  http://www.ohiochatter.com/forum/threads/13154-The-2010-Reds-are-a-House-of-Cards?p=392410#post392410
• sherm03

  

  Jordo,
  I know Mooney personally.
  
  He has been high on the Reds all year long. I would credit that thread that you posted to a frustrated night (even though they won that night, the Reds had just lost a series to the Royals, and the following series to the Dodgers) coupled with copious amounts of alcohol. I mean, he put that thread in the college football forum for Christ's sake.
  
  So chill out. Mooney is a pretty die hard Reds fan.
• sherm03

  

  Jordo,
  I know Mooney personally.
  
  He has been high on the Reds all year long. I would credit that thread that you posted to a frustrated night (even though they won that night, the Reds had just lost a series to the Royals, and the following series to the Dodgers) coupled with copious amounts of alcohol. I mean, he put that thread in the college football forum for Christ's sake.
  
  So chill out. Mooney is a pretty die hard Reds fan.
• jordo212000

  

  sherm03;472492 wrote:Jordo,
  I know Mooney personally.
  
  He has been high on the Reds all year long. I would credit that thread that you posted to a frustrated night (even though they won that night, the Reds had just lost a series to the Royals, and the following series to the Dodgers) coupled with copious amounts of alcohol. I mean, he put that thread in the college football forum for Christ's sake.
  
  So chill out. Mooney is a pretty die hard Reds fan.

  
  Yeah I could forgive one time, but he did it twice. He has been hot and cold on them all season (on Ohio Chatter anyways). Guess he may be different in real life.
• karen lotz

  

  He is also known to post after enjoying a few sodas, when you say what's on your mind at that moment, not what you really feel. He had a stretch of a couple days with some epic rants.
• mhs95_06

  dave;472214 wrote:yeah Bray and DRH make Howard look bad. I'm not sure Bray will even make the roster but against the Phillies I hope he would.

  
  Yes, I think if the Reds play the Phils, which I hope would be in the NLCS, they will have at least 4 lefty relief pitchers on the roster. Is it true that once you set the roster for a 7 game play-off series, you cannot change it? If so does that even mean there aren't even any provisions for subs even if two catchers get hurt?
• dave

  mhs95_06;472522 wrote:Yes, I think if the Reds play the Phils, which I hope would be in the NLCS, they will have at least 4 lefty relief pitchers on the roster. Is it true that once you set the roster for a 7 game play-off series, you cannot change it? If so does that even mean there aren't even any provisions for subs even if two catchers get hurt?

  
  
  They only have 3 LH RP available, maybe Wood will be in the pen.
  
  As for the playoffs, if someone is injured you can replace them but they are out for the rest of the playoffs I believe, or at least the following series.
• like_that

  

  The baseball playoffs are a crap shoot in my opinion. The reds could easily be swept or sweep in the first round. It doesn't matter if the reds were 0-whatever vs all the playoff teams.
• Mooney44Cards

  

  Fuck it, I changed my mind, the Reds blow. They won't win another game this year.