Archive

Some empirical data on the season so far . . .

  • fan_from_texas
    I went ahead and crunched some numbers, which are accurate as of this morning (before today's games, so note that 'Nova/Pitt and Ohio State/Mich State aren't included yet). Note that to the extent a game is played on a neutral court, a team's true Home/Road record is different from its reported.

    If you can't see the google doc below, you can go straight to it at this link.

    <iframe width='1000' height='800' frameborder='0' src='http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=txCUWqtRckFcQnCTvNBoB8g&output=html&widget=true'></iframe>
  • fan_from_texas
    FWIW, it looks like the B12, ACC, BEC, and B10 are all fairly close, with the SEC a bit behind, and the Pac-10 WAY behind.
  • CinciX12
    Xavier is undefeated at home, not 13-1. I wouldn't be a dick about it if that wasn't the only thing I could pride myself on this season:D They are counting a loss to Marquette as a home game but it was neutral court.
  • fan_from_texas
    CinciX12 wrote: Xavier is undefeated at home, not 13-1. I wouldn't be a dick about it if that wasn't the only thing I could pride myself on this season:D They are counting a loss to Marquette as a home game but it was neutral court.
    *cough* Second sentence above--
    Note that to the extent a game is played on a neutral court, a team's true Home/Road record is different from its reported.
  • CinciX12
    fan_from_texas wrote:
    CinciX12 wrote: Xavier is undefeated at home, not 13-1. I wouldn't be a dick about it if that wasn't the only thing I could pride myself on this season:D They are counting a loss to Marquette as a home game but it was neutral court.
    *cough* Second sentence above--
    Note that to the extent a game is played on a neutral court, a team's true Home/Road record is different from its reported.
    Hey buddy, I'm not here to read crap alright! Get off my back haha.

    Sorry 'bout that..
  • fan_from_texas
    LOL, no prob.
  • Mulva
    What constitutes a close game?
  • dokken
    The Big East has 12 teams in the top 62, roughly 20% of all teams in the top 62.
  • fan_from_texas
    Mulva wrote: What constitutes a close game?
    I put it within 5 points. Do you think that is good? Or should it be more/less?

    The ratings are based on a modified Elo system, like Massey/Sagarin.
  • fan_from_texas
    Do you know of any site that lists the schedule in such a way as to easily differentiate between home, away, and neutral? Ideally, a text-only site would be great (ESPN/CBS are both too commercial and have a ton of flash advertising that makes it tough to parse data). I'm currently using STATS, http://hosted.stats.com/cbk/teamstats.asp?team=287&report=schedule, which is pretty good for text-only, but it doesn't clarify whether a game is on a neutral court.
  • Prescott
    fft's stuff is very interesting and appreciated. Thanks for the hard work.
  • Mulva
    fan_from_texas wrote: I put it within 5 points. Do you think that is good? Or should it be more/less?
    5-6 points is the number I would personally use. That's a tough call to make though, because some games can be within 2 points at the minute mark and end up being 8 point games because teams don't stop fouling.
  • Big Gain
    The seeding committee takes into consideration the games a team losses when a "star" player is out with an injury as long as that player plays at the same level when he comes back.
  • fan_from_texas
    Mulva wrote: 5-6 points is the number I would personally use. That's a tough call to make though, because some games can be within 2 points at the minute mark and end up being 8 point games because teams don't stop fouling.
    Yeah. One thing that has been an issue (with the data I have) is that an OT game that is decided by 10 pts doesn't count as close. I'm trying to find a new data source to be able to include OT games, even if they end up being farther apart at the end.
  • cbus4life
    Great stuff FFT.
  • rydawg5
    You really need to go to the score tracker and see if it is "within 5 with 2 mintues left" perhaps..
  • fan_from_texas
    rydawg5 wrote: You really need to go to the score tracker and see if it is "within 5 with 2 mintues left" perhaps..
    I'm not sure there's an easy way to pull that info for every game.