Azubuike24
It's been an up and down year for the league, and to be honest, a little disappointing for a few teams. Some others have simply been overmatched and decimated by injuries and/or player issues. Here is a brief recap of each team's resume and what it looks like going forward. I'll rank them from 1-12 as I see them now.
1. Kentucky (15-0)
Key Wins: North Carolina, Connecticut, Louisville
Breakdown: The Cats are very good, easily the most impressive team in the league and getting stronger. When they hit stride, I'm not sure anyone can stop them. They may drop a few games, but only injuries will stop this team from winning 30 games IMO. Cal's teams usually hit stride after the Christmas/New Year's break, and it appears that is what is happening with this team.
Projection: SEC Champions, #1 Seed in NCAA
2. Tennessee (11-2)
Key Wins: Memphis, Charlotte
OOC Games Remaining: vs Kansas (1/10)
Breakdown: This is a tough team to decide how good they really are. They are balanced and have weapons on the perimeter, but the same questions from a year ago remain. Can they shoot from the perimeter well enough to keep defenses honest and do they have enough inside to beat the top tier teams? For UT, the key players going forward will be PG Bobby Maze and C Brian Williams. Those guys will determine how well they do in those problem areas. EDIT: It's still uncertain who will remain for the Volunteers, but they did look good against a pretty decent Charlotte team. Scotty Hopson and Wayne Chism stepped up, and other guys like Renaldo Woolridge and Kenny Hall provided double digit scoring and big minutes for UT. Tyler Smith, seemingly the most likely to NOT return, will be missed, but if they get Cameron Tatum and Melvin Goins back, the Vols won't go down easily. Brian Williams provides depth inside, but Pearl's style has never really relied on a true big man who can play on the perimeter, so if Williams is also gone, it might force Bruce to push the tempo and try to outscore teams just like he did a few years ago. They don't have the shooters like JaJuan Smith, Chris Lofton or Jordan Howell, but they can still run a similar gameplan.
Projection: NCAA Tournament, 2nd SEC East
3. Mississippi (12-2)
Key Wins: Kansas State
Breakdown: A nice surprise thus far to those outside of the league circles, the Rebels aren't sneaking up on those who know SEC basketball. This team is loaded in the backcourt with Warren, White and Polynice. Any of the 3 are capable of dropping 20+ and dominating a game offensively. Their interior game is basically mixing and matching with 5 or 6 players who are undersized and athletic. They are a great shot blocking team, but their achilles heal is rebounding. This team will drop a few games they shouldn't, but with their ability to score and have so many offensive threats, they will look fantastic in other games. Maybe the most fun team in the league to watch outside of UK IMO.
Projection: NCAA Tournament, 1st SEC West
4. Mississippi State (12-3)
Key Wins: None
Breakdown: We can dwell all year on what this team could be with Renardo Sidney, but it's almost a given now that he won't be suiting up. With that said, this is still the defending league champion led by a 1st team all conference big man in Jarvis Varnado. Now that John Riek is there to help him, MSU can go back to their up and down style and try to beat teams from the perimeter. Dee Bost is a great PG, but can be even better if he cuts down on the turnovers. Another fun team to watch, and the MSU/Ole Miss games this year will be awesome. Ravern Johnson is a guy who doesn't get a lot of pub, but he's having a great season and is leading a very good outside shooting team.
Projection: NCAA Tournament, 2nd SEC West
5. Vanderbilt (12-3, 1-0)
Key Wins: St. Mary's, Missouri
Breakdown: This is a team that has all the makings of an NCAA caliber team, but have not put it together against the best opponents they have faced. With that said, the improvement of Brad Tinley and contribution from John Jenkins has given them 5 legit scorers. As they develop their depth, the Dores will hold strong in league play. The tremendous home court advantage of Memorial Gym will make it tough for anyone to win against them on the road.
Projection: NCAA Tournament, 3rd SEC East
6. Florida (11-4, 0-1)
Key Wins: Florida State, Michigan State, North Carolina State
OOC Games Remaining: vs Xavier (2/13)
Breakdown: Kenny Boynton is no Nick Calathes, and despite leading the team in scoring, Boynton has really hurt the team with his shooting. He needs to improve from the perimeter if the Gators are going to break the streak and make the NCAA Tournament. With that said, Florida can match up with anyone inside with Macklin, Tyus and even Kadji coming off the bench. With Werner, Parsons and Walker (and Boynton), they are capable of shooting well, although many feel they have relied on this too much. For the Gators, defense on the perimeter will be a key as well as the outside shooting. I look for them to be right around the 9-10 win mark in the SEC, which should be enough to get them a bid.
Projection: NCAA Tournament, 4th SEC East
7. Alabama (10-4)
Key Wins: Providence
Breakdown: A weak SEC West will help Alabama possibly finish above .500 in the league, but I don't see them getting an NCAA bid unless they get more from Senario Hillman and Justin Knox. They have a fine 1-2 punch with Torrance and Green, but outside of that, they struggle to find other scorers. Hillman has been a disappointment after coming on so strong last year, and overall, the Tide are competitive, but a notch below the top teams in the league. Keep an eye on Andrew Steele, it's time he makes more of an impact now that he's getting quality minutes.
Projection: NIT, 3rd SEC West
8. Auburn (9-7, 0-1)
Key Wins: None
Breakdown: This might surprise some people who have seen some of the results with Auburn this year, but I think they will rise up and finish 4th in the West. They got Tay Waller back who missed the first 7 games with injury, and the senior has responded scoring over 13 PPG. They have more weapons than LSU now with Waller back joining Frankie Sullivan (one of my favorite SEC players), Lucas Hargrove and DeWayne Reed. Auburn is also as good or better than Bama and LSU on the interior, and Jeff Lebo has managed to be very competitive with better teams in recent years. This year, his team is just as good, and I think they will be a pesky team all season.
Projection: NIT, 4th SEC West
9. South Carolina (10-5, 1-0)
Key Wins: South Florida, Western Kentucky, Richmond
Breakdown: Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, many said the SEC East would get 4 teams in the tourney, and 5 had a shot. It appears with the loss of leading scorer Dominique Archie for the season, they will be the odd team out. Devan Downey is great, and they have a lot of other solid players, but Archie was an athletic 6'7 wing who could score anywhere on the floor. Without him, USC is very average on the interior and without lights out games from Downey, they will be overmatched by the other top teams who are more balanced. I do think USC is the 8th best team in the league still, but their final record may not show that as I could see them going something like 5-11 or 6-10. They aren't too far ahead of Georgia at this point. EDIT: The Gamecocks have kicked Mike Holmes off the team. This is a big loss. He was a quality inside prescence. They are definitely lower than 8th now IMO, probably not even an NIT team. This helps the rest of the East too, it gives teams like Florida and Vanderbilt and even more winnable game.
Projection: CBI, 5th SEC East
10. LSU (9-5)
Key Wins: Western Kentucky
Breakdown: Like Alabama, LSU is a notch below the big 2 in the SEC West. The Tigers have three great players in Bo Spencer, Storm Warren and Taz Mitchell, but there is a HUGE drop off after that. I kind of question Mitchell's choice to return to school since it was his 5th year, but it's his time to go out big with a great conference season. He will need to if the Tigers have any hope at making the postseason. Unfortunately, this team matches up badly with MSU and Ole Miss, so they will have to feast on the other bad teams to keep a respectable record. Another team that really struggles to shoot from the outside. Look for Trent Johnson to really improve on this in the years to come.
Projection: CBI, 5th SEC West
11. Georgia (8-5)
Key Wins: Illinois, Geprgia Tech
Breakdown: A team many destined to be awful has actually remained fairly competitive lately including hanging tough with Virginia Tech, St. John's and beating Illinois. They have an absolute stud in Trey Thompkins and a nice pair of sophomore guards who have really improved in Travis Leslie and Dustin Ware. They have experience up front with Albert Jackson, Jeremy Price and Chris Barnes. The lack of a true dishing PG will hurt the Dawgs against the better teams, but I've actually been surprised with their play lately. Look for them to again finish last in the East, and likely win at most 3 conference games, but they aren't as bad as expected or even as bad as last season.
Projection: None, 6th SEC East
12. Arkansas (7-8)
Key Wins: Missouri State
Breakdown: Unfortunately, the end might be nearing for John Pelphrey in Fayetteville and the path might be clearing for Mike Anderson to resurrect the program. The Hogs will likely finish under .500 OOC, and are destined for last once again in the SEC West. It's unfortunate that Courtney Fortson couldn't get his act together and play, without him the Hogs have no true PG and have struggled mightily to score when other teams shut down Rotnei Clarke. Michael Washington probably should've gone pro as his numbers are down and he's continually been frustrated. The good news is that guys like Jemal Farmer, Marshawn Powell, Glenn Bryant and Julysses Nobles have gotten serious minutes before they should've, and that will help Arkansas in the years to come. Unfortunately, those years will likely come with a different coach and different feeling around this program. It can't get much worse. EDIT: Courtney Fortson has returned. They did lose to Texas, but kept it close the entire game. I'm not ready to move Arkansas out of the cellar just yet because they are the only team under .500, but games against them just got that much tougher.
Projection: None, 6th SEC West
I think Florida at 6 is a little low. I'd probably swap them with Mississippi State. I actually haven't been impressed by the Bulldogs at all, and don't really see them as a tournament team. They've played an embarrassingly weak schedule, and I think it will cost them (see Penn State last season).
Florida is at State tomorrow, gonna get a good look at the Gators. NC state has issues scoring, rebounding, defending, basically they are a train wreck, we will see what Florida brings to the table.
Florida also has Xavier in Febuary which they will most likely win.