NCAA Tournament Pick 8

• lhslep134

  

  So my buddy asked me to help him fill out his Pick 8 this year, a concept I'd never heard of. I thought it was interesting enough to ask you guys who you'd take.
  
  
  For those who don't know how it works, you pick 8 teams and each time they win, you get an amount of points corresponding to their seed. So if Florida wins the national championship, you'd only get 6 points (6 wins * 1 seed) whereas if you took Kentucky and they win their first game you'd already have 8 points. You want to have the most combined points at the end.
  
  
  Here's who we took:
  
  Stephen F. Austin (12)
  Harvard (12)
  NDSU (12)
  Michigan State (4)
  Baylor (6)
  Kentucky (8)
  George Washington (9)
  New Mexico (7)
  
  Who would you guys take?
• Terry_Tate

  

  Did something like this with my buddies last night. I like Oregon and Oklahoma State as well.
• Mulva

  

  Baylor, UConn, Michigan State, Louisville, Kentucky, Oregon, VCU, and either OSU or UNC. I would give each of them (OSU and UNC, not every team listed) about a 1 in 3 chance to win 2 games.
• Heretic

  

  Off the top of my head: Baylor, New Mexico, North Dakota State, Louisville, Michigan State, Harvard, NC State and VCU.
• Iliketurtles

  

  Michigan State
  Louisville
  Arizona State
  New Mexico
  NDST
  NCST
  UConn
  Tennessee
• lhslep134

  

  Iliketurtles;1593477 wrote: Tennessee

  GRRRR!! We had to submit it last night before the game ended and now I have Tennessee advancing to the Elite 8 (I know simulators aren't the end all be all, but they're 56% favorites to beat Duke and 57% favorites to beat Michigan. That's awfully impressive for an 11 seed)
• Iliketurtles

  

  lhslep134;1593484 wrote:GRRRR!! We had to submit it last night before the game ended and now I have Tennessee advancing to the Elite 8 (I know simulators aren't the end all be all, but they're 56% favorites to beat Duke and 57% favorites to beat Michigan. That's awfully impressive for an 11 seed)

  Damn that sucks. I just picked them because I think they beat UMASS, don't think they beat Duke(homer) but I wouldn't be shocked if they did.
• Laley23

  

  I would go with
  
  sfa
  msu
  Louisville
  providence
  duke
  uconn
  Arizona st
  Stanford
  ULL
• gut

  This is tough - a #3 or #4 seed basically has to win 2 games just to have the same expected value as a #12 seed in a coin-flip. I don't really like that the rounds aren't progressively weighted more - no way should ARI winning it all net half a #12 seed winning a single game.
  
  I'd look for 4-7 seeds that I'm confident could win a few games with upside for more. Tempting to pick 11/12 seeds, but unless you see a good path to the Sweet 16 those don't seem like they'd help you much. I'd aim for an "expected" value of at least 8 points, and most of the 12 seeds would seem to be at or below that.
  
  I'd pick four or five 4-6 seeds that I thought had a good chance to win 3 or more games. Then I'd be left with three or four lower seeds I thought had a decent shot at the Sweet 16.