Contenders/Pretenders

• Mulva

  

  If my math is right, it's basically 6 weeks until Selection Sunday.
  
  1) I can't believe it's February already.
  2) Was looking at kenpom, and can't believe how bad the top 20 is.
  
  KU has been my favorite all season. Hasn't changed, despite their struggles early. I still worry about their PG play, but that starting 5 overall is easily the best in the country IMO.
  
  Outside of that, I don't trust anyone. MSU and Arizona would be my 2 and 3. Florida could easily jump up there, but I have to see Chris Walker play a few games first.
  
  Definite Pretenders: Creighton, Villanova, San Diego State
• SportsAndLady

  

  I disagree wtih all of those pretenders..I love Villanova's guard play. Creighton wtih McDermott will make it pretty deep. And SDSU has some big wins this year, proving they can go far in the tourney.
  
  My Pretenders: Oklahoma State, Michigan, Iowa, and Kentucky
  
  Contenders: KU, Zona, Florida, Wichita St, MSU, Iowa State
• ernest_t_bass

  

  NIT contender: OSU
• Azubuike24

  

  I'll disagree with S&L about both Iowa and Iowa State. Interestingly, I think Iowa is much more apt to make a run in the NCAA's than ISU. Even though ISU beat them, I feel the "hype" got to Iowa very quickly this year, after coming from nowhere. I could see ISU running into a bad match-up in a 7/10 or 8/9 game and losing first round. Right now, the Hawkeyes are probably a #4 or #5 seed, and they would be a scary regional semi match-up.
  
  I'm going to rank mine based on poll rankings, which are obviously flawed a bit...
  
  Underrated
  (6) Kansas and (3) Florida. Top 2 teams in the nation, take your pick.
  
  (15) Iowa. I like them the most in the B1G outside of MSU. Question marks for them include big game experience, coaching and some less than stellar half court defense. However, they have all the positional pieces to be a threat.
  
  (17) Duke. People haven't been talking about Amile Jefferson (and Marshall Plumlee), and the resurgence of Rasheed Suliamon. However, Duke has at least 3 future NBA starters in Parker, Hood and Suliamon along with 2 very saavy college guards with Dawkins and Cook. They just need the right route, officiating and match-ups to go all the way.
  
  (22) Memphis and I can't believe I'm saying this. This is their best team in 4 or 5 years, but their coach is still unproven and it seems like every NCAA Tournament they revert back to a style where they can't shoot, score and make dumb decisions.
  
  (NR) UCLA. For a decade under Howland, I hated the Bruins. I can't say I like them now, but I respect what Alford has done. Incredibly saavy team, similar to Duke with Adams, Anderson and LaVine all being studs on the wing. If they get enough elsewhere, watch out. Next year is their coming out party though, IMO.
  
  (NR) VCU. How this team isn't ranked in the top 40 is beyond me. They have a great coach, go 11 players deep and have a chip on their shoulder after an epic choke against Michigan last year. I'll tell you what, I wouldn't want to be a 1 or 2-seed that gets them in the 2nd round.
  
  Overrated
  (5) San Diego State. Right now, they would be a 3-seed probably. Maybe a 2. Have only seen a handful of games, but I don't see it. I have big question marks about their overall guard play and scoring ability.
  
  (10) Michigan. Great story and Beilein has done a great job, but no way they are a top 4 seed. Right now, they would be a 2. I do feel this will fall in the coming month.
  
  (11) Kentucky and (12) Louisville. Obviously UK has higher potential, but both teams have disappointed and have been woefully inconsistent. Some games, it's all put together. Other games, it's a clusterfuck. This type of trend does NOT bode well for a tournament where you have to go on a run.
  
  (14) Wisconsin. Their flaws on defense and their lack of overall athleticism will kill them. The only saving grace for them is they have a great coach and they can always get an advantage against an undisciplined team. Does anyone remember their loss to an average Ole Miss team last year? The Rebels had 2 freak athletes inside and a dominant scorer. Overall, they were not nearly as solid as Wisky, but in one game...
• slingshot4ever

  Surprised to see not one person mention Syracuse yet...
• SportsAndLady

  

  slingshot4ever;1575120 wrote:Surprised to see not one person mention Syracuse yet...

  For which category?
• slingshot4ever

  Either. Overall they just seem to be ignored. That team scares me.
• reclegend22

  

  I'll pick three contenders.
  
  Creighton -- I'm with S&L. Had my doubts early in the year, but I still really love this Creighton team. The Jays are loaded with wing play and shooters galore, centered around the National Player of the Year Doug McDermott. The kid doesn't get near the respect he deserves. He's one of the best college basketball players -- not athletes, future pros or potential prodigies -- in the last 10 or 15 years. In terms of his overall basketball IQ and the complete nature of his game, McDermott compares favorably to a guy like Shane Battier at Duke. He's that good and will be ready to carry his team on his back come tournament time. I could see a run to the regional final.
  
  Cincinnati -- Sean Kilptratick is the real deal. As I said before, it's a disgrace he was left off the Wooden Award list. He leads a tough, physical team with hard-nosed defense and solid inside play. The Bearcats have an impressive resume with wins over Pitt, SMU, at Memphis and at Louisville and have won 13 in a row overall. Getting hot at just the right time.
  
  Arizona -- Remains my favorite to win it all. I can't understand how anyone can watch Arizona and not be impressed by what they see. T.J. McConnell and Nick Johnson are arguably the best one and two guards in the country and that front-court matches up with anyone. It's the complete package. Additionally, Sean Miller is criminally underrated as a head coach.
• Ironman92

  

  I don't know.
  
  A final 4 right now I'd go with Zona, Florida, but the last two would be based on the bracket between Kansas, Cuse, Duke, Mich St
  
  I don't trust Creighton or UC at all.
• Azubuike24

  

  Those teams need the right match-up. UC would struggle against a team with lots of size and interior defense. They beat Louisville because that match-up is great for UC. UL has no size, and their guards, while very good, are all very small (except Blackshear). Creighton loves to run and gun, but they have been knocked out of the NCAA's consecutively by teams who beat them straight up with that style and more athleticism/talent.
• reclegend22

  

  What I find funny is how much trust everyone puts into Michigan State. Aside from the whole "Tom Izzo gets it done in March" argument -- which I'm not sure how true that really is considering despite six Final Four appearances, he's only sealed the deal once -- I am just not that impressed. Even when Payne and Dawson were in the lineup early in the year, the Spartans barely scraped by some just awful teams at home in the Breslin Center. It's just not a team that has proven it can truly put anyone away.
  
  Today against Georgetown, with the Hoyas down three starters and losers of five games in a row by an average defeat of almost 20 points per game, Michigan State has never really felt like a team that could walk away a winner. The downtrodden Hoyas have handled them.
  
  And then Arizona gets very little respect...
• reclegend22

  

  Azubuike24;1575165 wrote:Those teams need the right match-up. UC would struggle against a team with lots of size and interior defense. They beat Louisville because that match-up is great for UC. UL has no size, and their guards, while very good, are all very small (except Blackshear). Creighton loves to run and gun, but they have been knocked out of the NCAA's consecutively by teams who beat them straight up with that style and more athleticism/talent.

  Memphis, Pitt and SMU, on the other hand, have decent size. Those are all really quality wins. I think you are selling Cincy short.
  
  With Sean Kilpatrick leading the team, I think the Bearcats' stock is pretty high. Kid might be the best scoring guard in the country in the clutch. He's very Shabazz Napier-like in that respect, only playing alongside a better overall team that values defense.
• Azubuike24

  

  I wouldn't say Pitt or Memphis have size. They have about as much as Duke. Maybe that's just a comment about overall CBB, very few teams have legit center and power forward depth.
• reclegend22

  

  That could be true about the overall size of CBB being smaller compared to other years, which would lend well for Cincy and make any deficiencies in that area less critical. But Memphis has a nice pair in the front court in Goodwin and Nichols. I guess I was speaking more to the quality of the front court for Memphis than sheer height. It's a good rebounding team as well.
• reclegend22

  

  Texas, a team absolutely nobody is talking about, might be team to watch as a potential sleeper come March. While I've never been sold on Rick Barnes, the Longhorns looked spectacular today in a total domination of Kansas from tip to final buzzer. Texas sits at 17-4, including 4 victories over the RPI Top 50 (@UNC, Kansas, Iowa State and Kansas State), has a Top 30 RPI, and by the end of the year will have a Top 25 SOS as well. A great rebounding team with great inside play, experienced guards and one of the top 30 field-goal percentage defenses in America. Not a tremendous shooting team, but they more than make up for that with second chance opportunities on the boards.
  
  I'm liking Texas more and more.