Interesting Numbers

• Cleveland Buck

  

  Here is how Cincinnati's performance stacked up against their opponent's average performance.
  
  Cincinnati Offense
  
  Rutgers - 30.62 More
  Scored 30.62 more points against Rutgers than they allow on average against all other FBS opponents.
  
  Connecticut - 23 More
  Illinois - 22 More
  Louisville - 14.6 More
  South Florida - 11 More
  Oregon State - 4.78 More
  West Virginia - 3.56 More
  Miami (OH) - 3.09 More
  Fresno State - 0.22 Less
  Syracuse - 0.3 Less
  
  Total - 11.21 More
  
  Cincinnati scores an average of 11.21 points more per game than their opponents allow against all other FBS opponents on average.
  
  Cincinnati Defense
  
  Oregon State - 15.78 Less
  Allowed 15.78 fewer points to Oregon State than they score on average against all other FBS opponents.
  
  Syracuse - 13.6 Less
  Fresno State - 12 Less
  Rutgers - 10.88 Less
  Louisville - 7.7 Less
  West Virginia - 5.78 Less
  South Florida - 4.75 Less
  Miami (OH) - 2.82 Less
  Connecticut - 17.78 More
  Illinois - 18.56 More
  
  Total - 3.7 Less
  
  Cincinnati allows an average of 3.7 fewer points per game than their opponents score against all other FBS opponents on average.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  Here's another team for a reference point.
  
  Ohio State Offense
  
  New Mexico State - 14.4 Pts. More
  Minnesota - 13.6 More
  Iowa - 12.7 More
  Penn State - 12.5 More
  Navy - 10.3 More
  Wisconsin - 9.6 More
  Indiana - 2.2 More
  Illinois - 0.89 More
  Toledo - 0.38 More
  USC - 5.9 Less
  Michigan - 9.3 Less
  Purdue - 12.09 Less
  
  Total - 4.1 More
  
  Ohio State scores an average of 4.1 points more per game than their opponents allow against all other FBS opponents on average.
  
  Ohio State Defense
  
  Toledo - 32.36 Less
  Penn State - 22.7 Less
  Illinois - 21.44 Less
  Michigan - 18.1 Less
  Minnesota - 16.6 Less
  Wisconsin - 15.5 Less
  New Mexico State - 12.1 Less
  Indiana - 10.9 Less
  USC - 10.5 Less
  Purdue - 2 Less
  Navy - 0.8 Less
  Iowa - 0.4 More
  
  Total - 13.55 Less
  
  Ohio State allows an average of 13.55 fewer points per game than their opponents score against all other FBS opponents on average.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  And if you wanted to use this info as a predictor:
  
  Ohio State vs. FBS
  PPG: 29.25
  PAPG: 12.17
  
  Cincinnati vs. FBS
  PPG: 36.3
  PAPG: 20.2
  
  Cincinnati scores 11.21 more than opponents allow (12.17 + 11.21) = 23.38
  Ohio State allows 13.55 less than opponents score (36.3 - 13.55) = 22.75
  Cincinnati Score - 23.07
  
  Ohio State scores 4.1 more than opponents allow (20.2 + 4.1) = 24.3
  Cincinnati allows 3.7 less than opponents score (29.25 - 3.7) = 25.55
  Ohio State Score - 24.93
  
  Ohio State 25, Cincinnati 23
• dwccrew

  

  The college football forum is no place for Math!!!!!!
• mattinctown

  I've got a headache now
• Cleveland Buck

  

  Here's another one.
  
  Florida Offense
  
  Troy - 29.91 More
  FIU - 28.6 More
  Kentucky - 18.9 More
  Georgia - 13.4 More
  Florida State - 4.7 More
  South Carolina - 3.3 More
  Tennessee - 2.18 More
  Vanderbilt - 1.7 More
  Mississippi State 0.5 More
  LSU - 3.27 Less
  Arkansas - 4.6 Less
  
  Total - 8.67 More
  Florida scores an average of 8.67 points more per game than their opponents allow against all other FBS opponents on average.
  
  
  Florida Defense
  
  Troy - 29.55 Less
  LSU - 24.55 Less
  Florida State - 22.9 Less
  FIU - 22.1 Less
  Kentucky - 21.2 Less
  Tennessee - 19.18 Less
  Arkansas - 18 Less
  Vanderbilt - 11.8 Less
  Georgia - 10.7 Less
  South Carolina - 6.9 Less
  Mississippi State - 5.3 Less
  
  Total - 16.02 Less
  
  Florida allows an average of 16.02 fewer points per game than their opponents score against all other FBS opponents on average.
  
  
  Florida vs. Cincinnati
  
  Florida vs. FBS
  PPG: 34.18
  PAPG: 10.45
  
  Cincinnati vs. FBS
  PPG: 36.3
  PAPG: 20.2
  
  11.21 + 10.45 = 21.66
  36.3 - 16.02 = 20.28
  Cincinnati Score - 20.97
  
  8.67 + 20.2 = 28.87
  34.18 - 3.7 = 30.48
  Florida Score - 29.66
  
  Florida 30, Cincinnati 21 (I highly doubt it would be anywhere near this close)
  
  
  Florida vs. Ohio State
  
  Florida vs. FBS
  PPG: 34.18
  PAPG: 10.45
  
  Ohio State vs. FBS
  PPG: 29.25
  PAPG: 12.17
  
  4.1 + 10.45 = 14.55
  29.25 - 16.02 = 13.23
  Ohio State Score - 13.89
  
  8.67 + 12.17 = 20.84
  34.18 - 13.55 = 20.63
  Florida Score - 20.74
  
  Florida 21, Ohio State 14
• sjmvsfscs08

  The Ohio State defensive line would maul the Cincinnati offensive line and that would be the game.
• 3reppom

  

  Good work on doing all the research but whats the point? To quantify why you think OSU is better than UC? To predict the results of hypothetical games?
• TBone14

  

  You should do these for all the bowl games and see how it does.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  3reppom wrote: Good work on doing all the research but whats the point? To quantify why you think OSU is better than UC? To predict the results of hypothetical games?

  Just for the hell of it. I saw in another thread they started talking about this, how teams do against their opponent's regular averages, and I decided to do it. Also, whenever I have considered making my own computer rankings, it is pretty much based on this, with a factor in there for how good those opponents are. I was just curious to see what the stats looked like.
• 3reppom

  

  Cool. But for the purpose of predicting games or ranking teams a couple of stats that get seriously overlooked are yards gained per play vs. yards allowed per play. That is the best indicator of down to down consistency which is a hallmark of the best teams.
• SQ_Crazies

  

  OSU would still beat Cincy pretty handily. Cincy still plays in the Big East--no matter how you want to try to twist it, it's not a good football conference. Our defense would destroy that offensive line and the Cincy offense because of it. I'll admit, the Cincy O is legit. They're on the top level this season. But that defense isn't. OSU could score on that defense and our defense would do enough to stop Cincy's O. We'd dominate the LOS with our defensive line and the game would end right there.
  
  Cincy has a good team, that should definitely be recognized but come on guys--their fans need to tuck their boners into their pants because as good as they are this year they're still the 2nd best team in Ohio. And DEFINITELY the 2nd best program, I can't believe I've actually heard people say they've surpassed OSU as a program this year...
• hoops23

  

  Do this for the bowl match ups, we'll see how well it stacks up...
  
  Could be an interesting thing to try out.
• SQ_Crazies

  

  Yeah I would like to see how your formula works out--I love crunching numbers but they only go so far. I've come up with some formulas of my own over the years--I have a pretty elaborate one for March Madness that has won me 3 polls, but I won't share my secrets
  
  Just plug it all into excel, way easier to manipulate it all.
• HeathAlum21

  You can make numbers say anything.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  HeathAlum21 wrote: You can make numbers say anything.

  Ok, good. Show me some numbers that show that New Mexico State is as good as Florida.
• SQ_Crazies

  

  Haha, he really is right. I'm sure there is some way you could do it. Doesn't mean you have to take it seriously. But you can't take anything like this THAT seriously. You could have crunched these numbers for the Steubenville Big Red/Cardinal Mooney Cardinals game last week and I'd bet the house to say your numbers wouldn't come up with 45-7 Mooney. I don't take yours that seriously, I think OSU is probably two scores better than Cincy.
• TBone14

  

  New Mexico State beat Utah State who beat Louisiana Tech who almost knocked off Boise (down 30-28 in 4th quarter) who beat Oregon who beat UCLA who beat Tennessee who gave Florida all they wanted in the swamp.
  
  So there you have it, New Mexico State probably wouldn't beat Florida, but obviously it would be a close game.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  ^ Those aren't numbers.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  And using this to make predictions isn't to be taken seriously, but these numbers themselves (how many points you hold an opponents below their average, etc.) are a much better indicator of how good a team is than just looking at basic stats like where you rank in scoring defense.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  Alabama Offense
  
  Virginia Tech - 19.91 More
  North Texas - 19 More
  Kentucky - 15.6 More
  LSU - 8.73 More
  Arkansas - 8.6 More
  FIU - 4.4 More
  Mississippi State - 2.7 More
  Mississippi - 1.89 More
  Auburn - 0.6 Less
  South Carolina - 1.1 Less
  Tennessee 9.82 Less
  
  Total - 6.3 More
  
  Alabama Defense
  
  Arkansas - 32.3 Less
  Mississippi - 27 Less
  Mississippi State - 22.9 Less
  Tennessee - 22.45 Less
  North Texas - 21.36 Less
  South Carolina - 15.7 Less
  LSU - 11.45 Less
  Auburn - 10.1 Less
  FIU - 10 Less
  Virginia Tech - 7.91 Less
  Kentucky - 6.9 Less
  
  Total - 17.1 Less
  
  
  Alabama vs. FBS
  PPG: 30.45
  PAPG: 11.82
  
  Florida vs. FBS
  PPG: 34.18
  PAPG: 10.45
  
  8.67 + 11.82 = 20.49
  34.18 - 17.1 = 17.08
  Florida Score - 18.79
  
  6.3 + 10.45 = 16.75
  30.45 - 16.02 = 14.43
  Alabama Score - 15.59
  
  Florida 19, Alabama 16
• jpake1

  

  Do TCU/UF
• SQ_Crazies

  

  Eh, there are still some important things left out of this. But like I already told you, I get what you're doing. I like it--a different way to look at it and something to discuss rather than just some Florida fan telling an Alabama fan that his dick is bigger.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  There is one more main thing that I am going to factor in before I use this for the bowl matchups. I need to adjust for the strength of the opponent, meaning that just because you hold North Texas to 21 points below their average, it doesn't mean as much if they were averaging 30 points per game against bad defenses.
• Scarlet_Buckeye

  

  You *play* to *win* the game