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BCS Bowl Projections after 11/28

  • Leonardo
    What games do you have?



    BCS National Championship Game:
    Florida (SEC Champion, BCS #1) vs. Texas (Big 12 champion, BCS #2)

    Rose Bowl:
    Ohio State (Big 10 champion) vs. Oregon (Pac-10 champion)

    Sugar Bowl:
    Alabama (at-large #1) vs. TCU (at-large #5)

    Fiesta Bowl:
    Boise State (at-large #2) vs. Iowa (at-large #4)

    Orange Bowl:
    Georgia Tech (ACC champion) vs. Cincinnati (Big East champion, at large #3)
  • ironman02
    Looks right to me. I've seen projections that have TCU playing in the Orange and Cincinnati in the Sugar, but I like your matchups better.

    Hope Bama is playing for the title though.
  • darbypitcher22
    That looks pretty much about right.
  • Arnold.
    I'd change it around just a little bit.

    BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP:
    Alabama (#1; SEC champ)
    v.
    Texas (#2; Big 12 champ)

    ROSE BOWL
    Ohio State (Big Ten)
    v.
    Oregon (Pac-10)

    FIESTA BOWL
    Texas Christian (automatic bid for being highest ranked non-BCS school ranked in top 6)
    v.
    Iowa (at-large)

    ORANGE BOWL
    Cincinnati (Big East)
    v.
    Georgia Tech (ACC)

    SUGAR BOWL
    Florida (at-large)
    v.
    Boise State (at-large)

    As long as Texas beats Nebraska, then they're guaranteed to finish #2.
    The biggest question remaining is which of the two-loss Big Ten teams will be taken. Iowa has the road win at Penn State, but not nearly the name-recognition and drawing power Penn State has. Although the morons that run the BCS don't tend to use logic, I will and will give Iowa the nod. Since Oklahoma State went down today, barring a colossal upset by Nebraska in the Big Twelve Championship Game, Boise State will get an at-large spot.
  • DaBrowns41
    Leonardo wrote: What games do you have?



    BCS National Championship Game:
    Florida (SEC Champion, BCS #1) vs. Texas (Big 12 champion, BCS #2)

    Rose Bowl:
    Ohio State (Big 10 champion) vs. Oregon (Pac-10 champion)

    Sugar Bowl:
    Alabama (at-large #1) vs. TCU (at-large #5)

    Fiesta Bowl:
    Boise State (at-large #2) vs. Iowa (at-large #4)

    Orange Bowl:
    Georgia Tech (ACC champion) vs. Cincinnati (Big East champion, at large #3)
    So in this scenario, you don't think the loser of Pitt/Cincy gets into the Fiesta over Iowa?

    I wouldn't disagree.

    Also, I think Pitt beats Cincy. Cincy's defense is too weak to stop Pitt.
  • 2kool4skool
    The most likely one is:

    National Title: Florida/Alabama vs. Texas
    Orange: GA Tech vs. TCU
    Fiesta: Iowa/PSU vs. Cinci
    Sugar: Florida/Alabama vs. Cinci
    Rose: OSU vs. Oregon/Oregon State

    Sugar gets 1st pick after losing the #1 team and takes the loser of the SEC title game
    Fiesta gets 2nd pick and takes Iowa/PSU
    Orange Bowl gets next pick and takes TCU over Cinci and Boise
    Sugar Bowl takes Cinci
    Fiesta Bowl is left with Boise

    If Pitt defeats Cinci, the Orange Bowl may take Pitt over TCU, which would then send TCU to the Sugar Bowl(and leave them with an extreme outside shot at being #1 in the AP poll. What if Florida beats Alababa by 1 in the SEC title game, then beats Texas, but TCU beats Alabama by 35? It would be a debate.)

    If Nebraska defeats Texas then everything's screwed up, the BCS computers get the blue screen of death and no one plays.
  • slingshot4ever
    DaBrowns41 wrote:
    Leonardo wrote: What games do you have?



    BCS National Championship Game:
    Florida (SEC Champion, BCS #1) vs. Texas (Big 12 champion, BCS #2)

    Rose Bowl:
    Ohio State (Big 10 champion) vs. Oregon (Pac-10 champion)

    Sugar Bowl:
    Alabama (at-large #1) vs. TCU (at-large #5)

    Fiesta Bowl:
    Boise State (at-large #2) vs. Iowa (at-large #4)

    Orange Bowl:
    Georgia Tech (ACC champion) vs. Cincinnati (Big East champion, at large #3)
    So in this scenario, you don't think the loser of Pitt/Cincy gets into the Fiesta over Iowa?

    I wouldn't disagree.

    Also, I think Pitt beats Cincy. Cincy's defense is too weak to stop Pitt.
    How do you think a 3 loss Pitt Team would deserve an at-large bid??????????? They will be ranked close to 15 after getting beat by WV and would be out of the top 20 if they loss to Cincy as well. So please explain how a 9-3 Pitt ranked between 21-25 would deserve an atlarge bid. Thanks.
  • ptown_trojans_1
    Assuming all the favorites win:

    BCSNCG:
    Florida vs. Texas
    Sugar
    Bama vs. Boise
    Fiesta
    TCU vs. Iowa
    Orange
    Cincy vs. GT
    Rose
    OSU vs. Oregon

    But, what I would love to see:
    National title game:
    Florida vs. TCU
    Sugar
    Bama vs. Boise
    Fiesta
    Texas vs. Oregon St.
    Orange
    Cincy vs. GT
    Rose
    OSU vs. Oregon
  • darbypitcher22
    if Pitt loses to Cincy they're not going to take a 3 loss Pitt team.
  • Cleveland Buck
    Tie-Ins
    -------
    Florida - BCSNC
    Texas - BCSNC
    Ohio State - Rose
    Oregon - Rose
    Georgia Tech - Orange

    Available Teams
    ---------------
    Cincinnati (Auto Bid, Big East Champion)
    Alabama (Auto Bid, BCS Top 4)
    TCU (Auto Bid, Top Ranked Non AQ)

    Boise State
    Penn State
    Iowa
    Virginia Tech
    Cincinnati (if they lose to Pitt. my old bar league basketball team has a better chance of being picked at-large)
    BYU (no chance, but they are eligible)
    Oregon (if they lose to Oregon State and remain the top 14, but no one east of the west coast will want them)

    Selection Order
    ---------------
    Sugar (Replacing BCS No. 1) - Alabama (no brainer)

    Fiesta (Replacing BCS No. 2) - Penn State (between PSU and Iowa, they choose the bigger name)

    Orange - TCU (not going to take Virginia Tech for a rematch w/ the ACC champ, won't want Boise, BYU, or Cincinnati)

    Fiesta - Boise State (no one left is any more of a draw than Boise, so they take Boise to avoid controversy)

    Sugar - Cincinnati (the Big East champion has to play in a BCS bowl, and no one picks again after the Sugar)


    BCS National Championship
    Florida (13-0, 8-0, SEC Champion) vs. Texas (13-0, 8-0, Big XII Champion)

    Rose Bowl
    Ohio State (10-2, 7-1, Big Ten Champion) vs. Oregon (10-2, 8-1, Pac-10 Champion)

    Fiesta Bowl
    Penn State (10-2, 6-2, At-Large) vs. Boise State (13-0, 8-0, At-Large)

    Sugar Bowl
    Alabama (12-1, 8-0, At-Large) vs. Cincinnati (12-0, 7-0, Big East Champion)

    Orange Bowl
    Georgia Tech (11-2, 7-1, ACC Champion) vs. TCU (12-0, 8-0, At-Large)
  • Cleveland Buck
    If by some miracle Nebraska beats Texas, you would be looking at:

    BCS National Championship
    Florida (13-0, 8-0, SEC Champion) vs. Cincinnati (12-0, 7-0, Big East Champion)

    Rose Bowl
    Ohio State (10-2, 7-1, Big Ten Champion) vs. Oregon (10-2, 8-1, Pac-10 Champion)

    Fiesta Bowl
    Penn State (10-2, 6-2, At-Large) vs. Nebraska (10-3, 6-2, Big XII Champion)

    Sugar Bowl
    Alabama (12-1, 8-0, At-Large) vs. TCU (12-0, 8-0, At-Large)

    Orange Bowl
    Georgia Tech (11-2, 7-1, ACC Champion) vs. Texas (12-1, 8-0, At-Large)
  • Tigerfan00
    They have to avoid Boise St playing either of the SEC teams, that would be a nightmare and pretty much like Georgia putting a beatdown on Hawaii again.
  • pooter
    If the Florida/Bama game is close the loser will fall no lower than No.3
  • ptown_trojans_1
    I'm not sure Cincy will jump TCU. The gap is .142, and the Pitt loss to WVU hurt Cincy, as I'm not sure the computer points will be enough to propel Cincy past TCU. The pollsters will still keep TCU at 4, so it will be on the computers and I'm not sure Pitt will give them that much of a bump.

    Also, I still contend the loser of the Civil War should get in the BCS over Iowa and PSU and I'm a Big Ten guy. Note, looking at the computer rankings, Oregon St is 7th in the computer polls. Finally, if PSU goes over Iowa, it means the regular season doesn't mean shit.
  • Cleveland Buck
    ptown_trojans_1 wrote: I'm not sure Cincy will jump TCU. The gap is .142, and the Pitt loss to WVU hurt Cincy, as I'm not sure the computer points will be enough to propel Cincy past TCU. The pollsters will still keep TCU at 4, so it will be on the computers and I'm not sure Pitt will give them that much of a bump.

    Also, I still contend the loser of the Civil War should get in the BCS over Iowa and PSU and I'm a Big Ten guy. Finally, if PSU goes over Iowa, it means the regular season doesn't mean shit.
    Pitt's loss to WVU doesn't affect Cincinnati at all in the computers because they also played WVU. The loss makes Pitt look worse, but it also makes WVU look better, so the computers won't care either way. It might hurt some with the human voters, but I still believe that they would vote in an undefeated Big East champion over a mid major.

    For your second point, the regular season only means something when it comes to the BCS title game. After that all that matters is who will bring in the most money.

    And the Fiesta Bowl would cream in their pants thinking about a Penn State/Nebraska matchup. They are probably openly rooting for the Huskers in the Big XII title game.
  • Heretic
    I'd rather see Cincy play Boise than the ACC champion. Just a better match-up....and the ACC doesn't deserve any better than a token second major conference team (ie: any second major conference team that's not the Florida/Alabama loser).
  • sportswizuhrd
    How about this scenario...

    Top 14 are eligible for BCS bowl games.

    Georgia Tech loses to Clemson
    Oregon State loses to Oregon
    Pitt loses to Cincinnati..

    USC is sitting at 18 right now and play against Arizona on Saturday. If they put up a nice win on them, they would only need to jump one team (BYU,Miami) and have GT fall behind them.

    Any chance that the Fiesta Bowl takes USC over GTech(two game losing streak), Oregon State (who USC beat), Iowa(beat one the teams they lost to), Penn State(beat one of the teams they lost to) and Pitt(two game losing streak)? USC is the closest team of the bunch....Doesnt matter how you did in the season its how much $$$ you will generate for the bowl game.

    IMO, it doesnt happen but I would not be surprised if it does.
  • Cleveland Buck
    sportswizuhrd wrote: How about this scenario...

    Top 14 are eligible for BCS bowl games.

    Georgia Tech loses to Clemson
    Oregon State loses to Oregon
    Pitt loses to Cincinnati..

    USC is sitting at 18 right now and play against Arizona on Saturday. If they put up a nice win on them, they would only need to jump one team (BYU,Miami) and have GT fall behind them.

    Any chance that the Fiesta Bowl takes USC over GTech(two game losing streak), Oregon State (who USC beat), Iowa(beat one the teams they lost to), Penn State(beat one of the teams they lost to) and Pitt(two game losing streak)? USC is the closest team of the bunch....Doesnt matter how you did in the season its how much $$$ you will generate for the bowl game.

    IMO, it doesnt happen but I would not be surprised if it does.
    If all of that happens, and USC climbs into the top 14, they would play in the Fiesta Bowl. Then you would have:

    BCS National Championship
    Florida (13-0, 8-0, SEC Champion) vs. Texas (13-0, 8-0, Big XII Champion)

    Rose Bowl
    Ohio State (10-2, 7-1, Big Ten Champion) vs. Oregon (10-2, 8-1, Pac-10 Champion)

    Fiesta Bowl
    USC (9-3, 6-3, At-Large) vs. TCU (12-0, 8-0, At-Large)

    Sugar Bowl
    Alabama (12-1, 8-0, At-Large) vs. Cincinnati (12-0, 7-0, Big East Champion)

    Orange Bowl
    Clemson (9-4, 6-2, ACC Champion) vs. Penn State (10-2, 6-2, At-Large)

    It is very unlikely that USC would climb into the top 14 though unless they put a severe, 30+ point beatdown on Arizona and every possible team directly above them lose.
  • sportswizuhrd
    Oregon would be the PAC-10 champs. That would mean that USC would two wins over BCS bowl teams. Better wins than any of the other teams eligible.
  • 2kool4skool
    sportswizuhrd wrote: Oregon would be the PAC-10 champs. That would mean that USC would two wins over BCS bowl teams. Better wins than any of the other teams eligible.
    USC lost badly to Oregon
  • ironman02
    USC beat Ohio State and Oregon State. I think that may have been what he meant.
  • sportswizuhrd
    That is what I meant, I was looking over the teams in his scenario and read Oregon State. We both were mistaken by each other's posts.
  • Cleveland Buck
    Sorry, I fixed it.
  • ptown_trojans_1
    Cleveland Buck wrote:
    ptown_trojans_1 wrote: I'm not sure Cincy will jump TCU. The gap is .142, and the Pitt loss to WVU hurt Cincy, as I'm not sure the computer points will be enough to propel Cincy past TCU. The pollsters will still keep TCU at 4, so it will be on the computers and I'm not sure Pitt will give them that much of a bump.

    Also, I still contend the loser of the Civil War should get in the BCS over Iowa and PSU and I'm a Big Ten guy. Finally, if PSU goes over Iowa, it means the regular season doesn't mean shit.
    Pitt's loss to WVU doesn't affect Cincinnati at all in the computers because they also played WVU. The loss makes Pitt look worse, but it also makes WVU look better, so the computers won't care either way. It might hurt some with the human voters, but I still believe that they would vote in an undefeated Big East champion over a mid major.

    For your second point, the regular season only means something when it comes to the BCS title game. After that all that matters is who will bring in the most money.

    And the Fiesta Bowl would cream in their pants thinking about a Penn State/Nebraska matchup. They are probably openly rooting for the Huskers in the Big XII title game.
    Yeah, but the WVU win is already factored into their computer ranking. I'm saying the Pitt loss diminished the total number of computer points they could have gotten. If Cincy wins, it won't be enough to jump TCU in my view, but if Pitt had won that WVU game, and Cincy beat them then it might have been enough.

    TCU's schedule is good enough and they have the human polls to keep them ahead of Cincy.

    The regular season ought to mean something since it is the sole reason for the BCS and not a playoff. Why play the regular season if the game Iowa played against PSU in Happy Valley means nothing? It is complete bullshit if PSU gets the nod. Why play the game? Really?

    Yes, they would "cream" over a PSU/ Nebraska matchup, but Iowa did beat that same PSU team. It would be complete bullshit if that matchup happened. I would hope Nebraska would just blow out PSU just to show how bullshit of a game it would be.

    I still comeback though that the loser of the civil war is still a more deserving team than PSU or Iowa.
  • Cleveland Buck
    Yeah, but the WVU is already factored into their computer ranking. I'm saying the Pitt loss diminished the total number of computer points they could have gotten. If they win, it won't be enough to jump TCU in my view, but if Pitt won, then it might have bee enough.

    TCU's schedule is good enough and they have the human polls to keep them ahead of Cincy.

    The regular season ought to mean something since it is the sole reason for the BCS and not a playoff. Why play the regular season if the game Iowa played against PSU in Happy Valley means nothing? It is complete bullshit if PSU gets the nod. Why play the game? Really?

    Yes, they would "cream" over a PSU/ Nebraska matchup, but Iowa did beat that same PSU team. It would be complete bullshit if that matchup happened. I would hope Nebraska would just blow out PSU just to show how bullshit of a game it would be.

    I still comeback though that the loser of the civil war is still a more deserving team than PSU or Iowa.
    The gap between TCU and Cincy right now is tiny. I think enough human voters will move an undefeated Big East champion ahead of a MWC team for Cincy to jump them. That is just my opinion.

    The only purpose the BCS serves is to crown a national champion. The regular season is meaningful when determining the two teams to play for the title. Everything else is an exhibition and is about making money.

    I completely agree with you that Iowa is much more deserving than Penn State. Out of the four teams we are talking about, I think Iowa would be the most deserving, followed by a 3 loss Oregon (if they lose), 2 loss Penn State, and finally a 4 loss Oregon State (they wouldn't be eligible anyway if they lost because they wouldn't have at least 9 wins). It is all moot though, for the reason that has been stated countless times, money.