How Butler Can Win

• Prescott

  1. Make 3's- 40% of Butler's field goal attempts are 3 point shots. On average, the Bulldogs make them at a 34% rate.They must do better than this. The problem for Butler is that Duke defends the 3 point shot as good as anyone in the country, holding opponents to 28%.
  
  2.Keep Duke off of the offensive glass or go a little unconventional and don't leave Duke's shooters, especially Scheyer and Smith, to pursue rebounds. Block them out on the perimeter and stay on them.
  
  3. Hope the refs call a tight game. With all due respect to Zoubek, he plays the game like a bull in a China shop. If the officials call a tight game that would lessen his effectiveness on the boards and setting screens for Duke's shooters.
  
  4. Hope that the injury to Howard is not an issue and Mack does not have a recurrence of cramping.
  
  
  IMO, Duke wins 70-56.
• THE4RINGZ

  

  I see Duke winning in a mild blow out. But if we have learned anything from this year's tournament it is that ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.
• sportchampps

  Butler can win if the refs call a tight game if they let them plain the advantage goes to Duke. This game is going to be 2 well coached teams playing hard nosed basketball and should be fun.
• dlazz

  Prescott wrote: The problem for Butler is that Duke defends the 3 point shot as good as anyone in the country, holding opponents to 28%.

  I'd be more worried about Duke, who lives and dies by the 3. Butler is used to facing teams who live and die by the 3, so they if they can keep Duke from raining threes they should be alright.
  
  Butler plays incredible team ball. The Michigan State game was a poor example, they were lucky to get away with that one.
• cats gone wild

  You create ALOT of topics........
• Prescott

  I'd be more worried about Duke, who lives and dies by the 3.

  I think Duke has a decided advantage down low. If they aren't hitting their 3's they will attack and undersized Bulldog team down low and dominate the glass.
• swamisez

  

  Duke has taken and made fewer three point shots this year than any year in the last decade.
  
  They are much more well rounded, despite not having a significant low post threat. They are capable of beating teams in a variety of ways (i.e. baylor)
• dlazz

  swamisez wrote: Duke has taken and made fewer three point shots this year than any year in the last decade.

  Way to pull random stats out of your ass:
  
  Attempted 3PT:
  2009-2010: 748
  2008-2009: 766
  2007-2008: 816
  2006-2007: 520
  2005-2006: 709
  2004-2005: 763
  2003-2004: 701
  2002-2003: 649
• swamisez

  

  I swear to God i read an article this week that said just what I told you.
  
  Do you have a link to where you found those stats?
  
  (forgive my misreading the true point of the article. The author said Duke has made a higher percentage of their three point shots than any other season this decade despite shooting fewer)
  
  obviously it has been pointed out that this is not the fewest number of three point shots per season this decade. I have no idea about their percentage of three point shots made. Maybe dlazz can verify?
  
  again apologies.
• mattinctown

  Duke doesn't HAVE to live and die by the three this year, that is the difference between this team and the teams of the last few years. Butler may shut down the three ball, but Duke has other ways to win this year, such as offensive rebounds and putbacks, etc.... The teams of the last few years were one-dimensional, this team is not, and that is why they will win.
• dlazz

  swamisez wrote: obviously it has been pointed out that this is not the fewest number of three point shots per season this decade. I have no idea about their percentage of three point shots made. Maybe dlazz can verify?

  ESPN had those stats. I'm too lazy to check percentages.
• centralbucksfan

  Butler needs to stay in the game early. If they can hang in there and not get down too much...they can have a chance. Again, I think Duke wins. But Butler has beaten 3 quality teams to get here. They are no fluke and people doubting them...as I did...shouldn't.
• swamisez

  

  I went and scoured and found that this year duke is shooting .389% from three point land
  
  This is actually their highest total since 2000 (if only by .009%), so credit the research staff of the Chronicle for finding this nugget.
• sleeper

  

  Duke is going to win the game.
• Cleveland Buck

  

  Butler can win if:
  
  1. They sell out to crash the defensive glass. Don't even think about a fast break. Just make sure you get the rebound.
  
  2. They can effectively defend Duke's bigs with one guy and stay with the shooters on the outside.
  
  3. The refs call an even game and leave the 'Duke' calls for another time.
  
  4. Shoot at least 40% from behind the arc.
  
  5. Attack the rim and try to get Duke's bigs in foul trouble.
• dlazz

  Welp, I was close. Butler did what they needed to do, just fell short on shooting the ball.