Fantasy baseball - Outfielder question

• BigAppleBuckeye

  

  OK, as I have written about before, I am in a 12-team keeper league (with a convoluted contract structure, which I won't get into right now).
  
  Anyway, I have the 10th pick in the draft tomorrow. Bear in mind each team is keeping 13-15 guys per team, and MOST of the studs are long gone. However, some great ballplayers are available because their contracts ran out (hard to explain, just go with it) so they are back in the draft this year. Here is how I see the first 9 picks going (based on team needs and chatter this week):
  
  1. Roy Halladay
  2. Dustin Pedroia
  3. Ichiro
  4. Mariano Rivera
  5. David Price
  6. Jason Bay
  7. Manny Ramirez
  8. Carlos Lee
  9. Bobby Abreau
  
  OK, this league awards two titles, one head to head, one rotisserie (5x5 categories). I need an outfielder, and keeping in mind that this is a keeper league, who should I target. My options:
  
  *Shane Victorino
  *Hunter Pence
  *Andrew McCutchen
  
  I have narrowed it down to those three. Victorino is probably the best all-around NOW, but his steals went down and he slumped badly down the stretch, and I hate the Phillies.
  
  Pence had a very solid year last year, and has a high ceiling.
  
  McCutchen just has that stud look, but is he a reach here? Knowing my league, no way he is around in the 2nd round, so I would have to take him early to get him. Love this kid, just don't know if I should play it safe.
  
  Thoughts?
• BigAppleBuckeye

  

  A little help! Who would you take:
  
  *Shane Victorino
  *Hunter Pence
  *Andrew McCutchen
• stroups

  

  Victorino.... he is going to get on base, steal, and has a better chance to score runs because of the people behind him.
• Sonofanump

  It's a keeper league and they are going to take Rivera, Ichiro and Abreau over the three you listed?
• BigAppleBuckeye

  

  Sonofanump wrote: It's a keeper league and they are going to take Rivera, Ichiro and Abreau over the three you listed?

  Yep ... that was my thinking as well, but apparently they are. I prefer the younger players, obviously.
• Sonofanump

  BigAppleBuckeye wrote:

  Sonofanump wrote: It's a keeper league and they are going to take Rivera, Ichiro and Abreau over the three you listed?

  Yep ... that was my thinking as well, but apparently they are. I prefer the younger players, obviously.

  Check out this list, a three year projection list for keeper league.
  McCutchen is highest here. He should also steal the most bases and come close to the others on power.
  
  http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=mlbdk2k10top200keepers
• BigAppleBuckeye

  

  Sonofanump wrote:

  BigAppleBuckeye wrote:

  Sonofanump wrote: It's a keeper league and they are going to take Rivera, Ichiro and Abreau over the three you listed?

  Yep ... that was my thinking as well, but apparently they are. I prefer the younger players, obviously.

  Check out this list, a three year projection list for keeper league.
  McCutchen is highest here. He should also steal the most bases and come close to the others on power.
  
  http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=mlbdk2k10top200keepers

  Thanks Sonofanump, good stuff.
• jordo212000

  

  Keeper league? Probably McCutchen
  If we are going by who will have the best season, I go with Pence.
• BigAppleBuckeye

  

  Thanks for the advice fellas ... quick update: I wound up landing McCutchen (1st) AND Victorino (2nd), which was a pleasant surprise. Also added a good reliever (Jose Valverde), some projects (Cameron Maybin and Alcindes Escobar), and some low-risk, high-reward late-round sleepers in Daisuke Matsusake, Nick Johnson and Mike Pelfrey. My only weakness is RP, after losing Rivera to the draft.
  
  12-team keeper league, my lineup looks like this:
  
  C- Matt Wieters
  1B- Justin Morneau
  2B- Aaron Hill
  SS- Jose Reyes (or Escobar until he is healthy)
  3B- Kevin Youkilis
  OF- Justin Upton
  OF- BJ Upton
  OF- Shane Victorinio
  UT- Andrew McCutchen
  UT- Jason Heyward (or maybe Nick Johnson, not sure)
  SP - Tim Lincecum
  SP - Josh Johnson
  SP - Cole Hamels
  SP - Scott Kazmir
  SP- Daisuke Matsusake
  SP - Nick Blackburn (or Stephen Strausburg, eventually)
  RP - Jose Valverde
  RP - Whoever wins the Twins closer job (I have them all)
  RP -Chris Perez??? (Tribe fans, is this guy any good????)