NASCAR: Coke Zero 400 at Daytona (July 3, 7:30 PM)

• ts1227

  

  A little last minute, but hopefully we can get some bets
  
  
  To clarify, when I say "involvement" in cautions for Robby Gordon, I mean either he bumped someone to start it, or actually was part of the wreck.
• Darkon

  

  Those odds are tough. It's Daytona anyone can win.
  12 cautions? I would say less than 6.
  
  I have all my money on other events, but I don't see an appealing bet here.
• dave

  ridiculous odds here.
• ts1227

  

  First off, most of the events we've created have actually been paying way too high.
  Half of the bets the first week were guaranteed payouts, haha
  
  But anyway, here's the method behind the madness:
  
  If I make "the field" a choice, it's too easy of money
  There's scattered rain all around right now. One of those brushes over in the next couple hours and the race will start late.
  Both restrictor plate races thus far have gone at least 2 G/W/C
  They already had to work on the track patch once this week
  Robby Gordon is like a pinball on these tracks.
• Darkon

  

  Johnson has 1 victory in a points race at Daytona and it was not the summer race.
  Jr. has 2 wins one in the spring and one in the summer the year his dad died.
  The Busch brothers have 1 between them.
  
  The odds are out of line for a plate race.
  
  Remember this is for fun, Who cares how much everyone wins.
  If the odds are so tight then people will lose interest if they are not winning.
• ts1227

  

  I know it's for fun, but keeping it somewhat realistic makes it interesting as well. Gambling's no fun if you don't have to sit there and think about it some!
  Plus, if it's all easy money (like a few of the baseball games where you were guaranteed to win if you put money on all of the choices), the rich ones will get richer that much faster (more to drop on the easy money) and then everyone else becomes disinterested because there's no competition left between people.
  
  I'll make sure to do better with the driver odds next time, but I believe the prop bets are in line.
• Darkon

  

  Not trying to bust on you. Just for future reference.
  Prop bets are cool and should be long shots.
  This is from BODOG.
  They also have odds for finishing in the top 3.
  
  
  Sprint Cup - Odds to win the Coke Zero 400 - Sat, July 3rd (7:30pm ET)
  @ Dayton International Speedway
  A.J. Allmendinger
  50/1
  
  Bobby Labonte
  150/1
  
  Brad Keselowski
  50/1
  
  Carl Edwards
  25/1
  
  Clint Bowyer
  25/1
  
  Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  15/2
  
  Dave Blaney
  200/1
  
  David Ragan
  35/1
  
  David Reutimann
  30/1
  
  David Stremme
  200/1
  
  Denny Hamlin
  11/1
  
  Elliott Sadler
  75/1
  
  Greg Biffle
  35/1
  
  J.J. Yeley
  200/1
  
  Jamie McMurray
  15/1
  
  Jeff Burton
  18/1
  
  Jeff Gordon
  9/1
  
  Jimmie Johnson
  11/1
  
  Joe Nemechek
  150/1
  
  Joey Logano
  35/1
  
  Juan Pablo Montoya
  22/1
  
  Kasey Kahne
  20/1
  
  Kevin Conway
  200/1
  
  Kevin Harvick
  10/1
  
  Kurt Busch
  12/1
  
  Kyle Busch
  17/2
  
  Marcos Ambrose
  75/1
  
  Mark Martin
  25/1
  
  Martin Truex Jr.
  30/1
  
  Matt Kenseth
  25/1
  
  Max Papis
  200/1
  
  Paul Menard
  75/1
  
  Reed Sorenson
  75/1
  
  Regan Smith
  100/1
  
  Robby Gordon
  100/1
  
  Robert Richardson Jr.
  200/1
  
  Ryan Newman
  25/1
  
  Sam Hornish Jr
  60/1
  
  Scott Speed
  100/1
  
  Steve Park
  200/1
  
  Tony Stewart
  15/2
  
  Travis Kvapil
  200/1
  
  
  
  This is from BODOG.
  They also have odds for finishing in the top 3.
• ts1227

  

  Dave Blaney is 200/1 and he didn't even make the race, lol
  
  Those odds seem REALLY high.
  
  If you picked Newman (someone fully capable of winning) and 20 other drivers, bet the same on them all, and Newman (or probably 15 of your 20 other drivers) wins, you'd still win money.
  
  Even if you pick a favorite like Smoke, you can pick 7 other drivers to cover your ass and still come out a little ahead.
  
  I'm not questioning you, I know those are the real odds, I'm just thinking out loud
  I'll have it all better for next week, I promise.
• Ironman92

  

  oh...
• dave

  no matter how good a driver is, it's still a 1 in 43 shot and there's so much luck involved, i would say nobody should ever been less than 5/1. 1/3 for JJ is unheard of.
• ts1227

  

  I think I'm going to adjust the driver odds, since it only affects 1 person.
  
  We're supposed to let them be once we set the event, but I fucked up pretty bad haha. Forgive me Jsutin. Rookie mistake
• Darkon

  

  ts1227;410097 wrote:I think I'm going to adjust the driver odds, since it only affects 1 person.
  
  We're supposed to let them be once we set the event, but I fucked up pretty bad haha. Forgive me Jsutin. Rookie mistake

  
  Much better!
  But I have all my money on other events.
  This will generate more action. Good Job.
• Ironman92

  

  We've all had our share of rookie mistakes....I've not had one in about my last 10 threads and lotz seems to have figured it out as well on the odds
  
  
  
  I thought ts had it down when he started though....welcome
• ts1227

  

  Ironman92;410165 wrote:We've all had our share of rookie mistakes....I've not had one in about my last 10 threads and lotz seems to have figured it out as well on the odds
  
  
  
  I thought ts had it down when he started though....welcome

  
  I check the Vegas lines for the baseball ones and tweak them accordingly, then the one time I decide to wing it (this thread) I blow it, haha.
• ts1227

  

  Here comes the rain right at the time bets closed...
• ts1227

  

  Harvick wins the race
  
  
  Conway was 10th going into the last restart!
  9 cautions... short of the 12 I set, but just as far off as the 6 someone mentioned... haha
  Only 1 G/W/C, fewest of any plate race.
  Patch held up
  Robby kept it clean for once
  Race delayed 1.5 hours by weather
  Busch brothers kept on getting involved in wrecks (Kurt somehow limped it home in 7th)