What Percentage of Small Businesses Are Planning To Hire?
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gut
LMAO....I've been arguing the past few days on a tech forum why bitcoin is basically a bubble AND a fraud. More gold bugs that think a single global currency would be the greatest thing since sliced bread. The success/value (or maybe stability is a better word) of fiat currency really depends on the credibility and transparency of the backer.O-Trap;1423261 wrote:Saw a mini-bubble burst today with the bitcoin market. It's what bubbles do with no tether to tangible, imperishable commodities. -
BoatShoes
We often spar but we definitely agree on this.gut;1423268 wrote:LMAO....I've been arguing the past few days on a tech forum why bitcoin is basically a bubble AND a fraud. More gold bugs that think a single global currency would be the greatest thing since sliced bread. The success/value (or maybe stability is a better word) of fiat currency really depends on the credibility and transparency of the backer. -
BoatShoes
The price level in those items is not outrageous in the same way that say the Housing Prices were except in maybe tuition in healthcare and those are caused by problems totally unrelated to Quantitative Easing and Low Interest Rates and certainly not at the level the austrians have been crowing about.Cleveland Buck;1423239 wrote:I didn't say "things are more expensive". I said the things they spend the new money on are more expensive. Since the bankers and government use this new money first, I would love for you to show that there hasn't been price inflation in stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, college tuition, health care, etc.
The wealth created in the 40 years preceding the last 100 rivals the wealth created since. Incredible what austerianism accomplished. (It was not then nor ever Austrian.) Really the only major development in capital goods (productivity) since then is computers, which have made us dramatically more productive, but not really a whole lot wealthier all things considered. With productivity gains, consumer prices should have fallen by 50% over the last 20 years or so, not doubled. All of that wealth was stolen by the government.
The Industrial Revolution would have happened with a Central Bank and Much of it did. Even Keynesians acknowledge that the real wealth created from, say, indoor plumbing is greater than anything in history but there is nothing to suggest that such innovations would not have occurred if we didn't have the wild swings in business cycles and poverty and loss that occurred prior to having a central bank. -
BoatShoes
I agree that all of those things cause supply-side problems and are worth fixing but they are not the overarching problem which is the demand side. If a fat guy who should exercise more and eat less pork is lying on the ground having a heart attack you don't worry about the plaque in his arteries until you stop the heart attack.O-Trap;1423260 wrote:Rest assured, this isn't the result of just the Healthcare bill. It's a culmination of all the added costs of employing someone anymore that are virtually mandated. Everything from minimum wage to unemployment to health insurance to workers comp to withholding taxes. It's too expensive in comparison to hiring it out to people willing to do 1099s.
It's why, while I'm annoyed at stuff like the AHCAA, I just focus my energies on how to best run my business in light of it. In this case, it's finding a way to avoid it. I hire contract work and pay on 100% commission (or, if I'm paying someone from another country, I might pay them a decent wage there that is pretty low here).
I've contemplated setting up a way for local college students to get an internship with me, but I don't even know how to start setting that up. Haven't looked into it enough.
In any case, I again say, "1099s all around."
Simple example; Full Payroll Tax Holiday. It is still expensive for a 5 person small business discount store to higher an employee on the supply side...i.e. the employee cannot sell their labor below a certain price...have to make sure you don't sexually harass her or fire her because she's black...etc.
The general admin requirements for complying with the payroll tax are there because it will likely return in the future, etc.
But if more people have money in their pockets because of the payroll tax cut that they will surely spend and sales increase for the discount store requiring the boss to hire on another employee...the supply side concerns and costs are ancillary to the need to meet that demand...with that spending becoming income to the new employee and left over profits to the owner etc. -
Cleveland Buck
The central bank came in right at the end and had no affect on the results of the Industrial Revolution, thankfully. And while it does not prove anything, such innovations have been fewer and farther between while we have gone through the much wilder swings in business cycles due to the central bank. Even poverty, while it was higher then because we were just starting to become a production powerhouse, still declined every year until LBJ passed his War on Poverty, after which it has stayed flat. Good job there, by the way.BoatShoes;1423508 wrote: The Industrial Revolution would have happened with a Central Bank and Much of it did. Even Keynesians acknowledge that the real wealth created from, say, indoor plumbing is greater than anything in history but there is nothing to suggest that such innovations would not have occurred if we didn't have the wild swings in business cycles and poverty and loss that occurred prior to having a central bank. -
Cleveland Buck
Luckily we have our betters to tell us when prices of something are not "outrageous", although record high DOW in this miserable economy certainly seems outrageous to me. You've always got an excuse, but keep scratching your head why your medicine isn't working.BoatShoes;1423508 wrote:The price level in those items is not outrageous in the same way that say the Housing Prices were except in maybe tuition in healthcare and those are caused by problems totally unrelated to Quantitative Easing and Low Interest Rates and certainly not at the level the austrians have been crowing about. -
gut
It's not rocket science - at it's most fundamental roots, stock values represent the discounted present value of future cash flows. When you have 0% interest rates vs. even 4-5% it's a huge difference. It's vapor value, and it's not terribly dissimilar to what happened with the housing bubble.Cleveland Buck;1423518 wrote: although record high DOW in this miserable economy certainly seems outrageous to me.
The horrible state of many public pension funds is already well documented. But when you consider they are the major holders of govt and corporate debt, then a return to normative rates is only going to create more problems. This is a hidden cost, a hidden tax if you will, of reckless govt spending.
What is going to happen when the funding gap continues to grow for these pensions? Well, we've seen some of the policy choices in CA. It simply doesn't bode well for growth and prosperity. -
Abe Vigoda
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gut
0% hiring is definitely one of those statistics that defies credulity. Seems like the question must have been rigged (i.e. "are you planning to hire in the next month") or a really small sample size of respondents.
On the other hand, there's certainly massive confusion over Obamakare and what the costs will be, and so for small businesses wanting to hire 1-2 people it's definitely enough to give them pause. You could have the budget to hire a few people, but Obamakare potentially would eat that budget up so you take a wait-and-see approach.
Job postings don't necessarily equate to available positions, either. The candidate the company would hire might very well not exist - as in someone perfectly content to be overqualified and underpaid, and local. -
Cleveland Buck
Eliminate the government jobs, the big companies, and any companies using government money to hire temporary help. How many of them are left. Not many I would guess.
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QuakerOatsO-Trap;1423204 wrote:This small business is hiring subcontractors for short-term gigs only.
1099s all around.
obamaKare ........... strikes again.
Change we can believe in ....