Nate Silver:Ohio Not A Battleground

• Ty Webb

  

  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/oct-26-state-poll-averages-usually-call-election-right/
  
  He may have a point...there may not be enough time for Romney
• LJ

  

  C'mon man, you know the rules
• Ty Webb

  

  Its been fixed....my bad
• Ty Webb

  

  

  ccrunner609;1305830 wrote:Give me a break, this guy is the most biased blogger out there

  
  Actually....he is widely respected on both sides of the aisle
• elitesmithie05

  Ty Webb;1305869 wrote:
  
  
  Actually....he is widely respected on both sides of the aisle

  If by both sides of the aisle, you mean a room full of socialists and Marxists than yes you are right.
• I Wear Pants

  This dude is actually pretty accurate most of the time.
• fish82

  

  I Wear Pants;1306031 wrote:This dude is actually pretty accurate most of the time.

  His prediction model is usually accurate. That said, he's been feeding it the same bogus poll data that the rest of us see every day.
• fish82

  

  Rasmussen about to release the latest numbers for Ohio, with Mitt up 50-48.
  
  Nate is going to have an uncomfortable night next week.
• Ty Webb

  

  fish82;1307074 wrote:Rasmussen about to release the latest numbers for Ohio, with Mitt up 50-48.
  
  Nate is going to have an uncomfortable night next week.

  1 poll out of 7. Yep...Romney's going to win!:rolleyes:
  
  
  If Rasmussen is so great....why doesn't he release crosstabs for his polls??
  
  Isn't it funny after 3 polls yesterday came out showing Obama up 1-3 points that he releases a ONE DAY poll.
• fish82

  

  Ty Webb;1307109 wrote:1 poll out of 7. Yep...Romney's going to win!:rolleyes:
  
  
  If Rasmussen is so great....why doesn't he release crosstabs for his polls??
  
  Isn't it funny after 3 polls yesterday came out showing Obama up 1-3 points that he releases a ONE DAY poll.

  Where did I say Romney was going to win? I just said that Nate is going to need to walk back his "not a battleground" bullsht.
  
  You're getting more rattled by the day, bro. You gonna make it to next Tuesday?
• Ty Webb

  

  fish82;1307112 wrote:Where did I say Romney was going to win? I just said that Nate is going to need to walk back his "not a battleground" bullsht.
  
  You're getting more rattled by the day, bro. You gonna make it to next Tuesday?

  "Toss-up" was the phrase he used...but it's pretty much the same thing
  
  I'm going to be fine fish....no matter what happens. As I'm sure you will be as well....I can't say the same for some others here
  
  In the end....I believe Obama carries Ohio and Romney carries Florida. Virginia I really dont know
• BoatShoes

  fish82;1306993 wrote:His prediction model is usually accurate. That said, he's been feeding it the same bogus poll data that the rest of us see every day.

  I don't really know anything about polling but I'm just not sure I would bet on systematic widespread polling failure resulting in the aggregation of polling data being a totally erroneous pursuit.
  
  But hey, one week to go and this will be over (hopefully).
  
  Realistically I'd be much happier with a clear Romney win than some kind of electoral tie, etc.
• fish82

  

  BoatShoes;1307237 wrote:I don't really know anything about polling but I'm just not sure I would bet on systematic widespread polling failure resulting in the aggregation of polling data being a totally erroneous pursuit.
  
  But hey, one week to go and this will be over (hopefully).
  
  Realistically I'd be much happier with a clear Romney win than some kind of electoral tie, etc.

  His model is only as good as the polling data he feeds into it. He's using the polls with those whacky D+7 samples in them, and it's giving him an exaggerated sense of security.
  
  Agreed 100% on your last point. I'll be bummed but not suicidal if Obie wins. But if it's close enough that everyone starts lawering up, I'll be on the 6:00 news at the top of some tower spraying bullets.