Archive

Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and revolution in MENA

  • I Wear Pants
    So far it doesn't seem like he is going to step down, I don't think that's going to fly.
  • majorspark
    FatHobbit;660813 wrote:This is what I am talking about when I ask would we support a democracy if they did not do what was in the US's best interest.
    I believe we would cautiously support a democracy in Egypt. But if they started shit with the Suez Canal US warships would be on it like flies. I am not too worried about this movement yet and who may take power. It would have to be a very radical almost suicidal regime to screw with the Canal as it would bring world powers down on them.
  • majorspark
    I Wear Pants;660865 wrote:So far it doesn't seem like he is going to step down, I don't think that's going to fly.
    From what I see the only thing that is going to fly is his immediate resignation.
  • ptown_trojans_1
    Mubarack will not run in the election in September.
    So, he is not leaving now, but will be after this year.
    Better than him staying in power.


    Also, Jordan is still in protests even with the new government announced.
  • I Wear Pants
    majorspark;660866 wrote:I believe we would cautiously support a democracy in Egypt. But if they started shit with the Suez Canal US warships would be on it like flies. I am not too worried about this movement yet and who may take power. It would have to be a very radical almost suicidal regime to screw with the Canal as it would bring world powers down on them.

    But you see what that says about us right? That we only support democracies that benefit us or do what we want.
  • ptown_trojans_1
    majorspark;660866 wrote:I believe we would cautiously support a democracy in Egypt. But if they started shit with the Suez Canal US warships would be on it like flies. I am not too worried about this movement yet and who may take power. It would have to be a very radical almost suicidal regime to screw with the Canal as it would bring world powers down on them.
    Considering Egypt gets a shit ton of money from the canal, it will not move to close it.
    I would be more worried about the Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement. I doubt it will go away, but that is more probable to me than the closing or restricting the canal.
  • majorspark
    ptown_trojans_1;660879 wrote:Considering Egypt gets a shit ton of money from the canal, it will not move to close it.
    I agree thats why I said it would take a suicidal regime. Thats why I am not to worried about this uprising in Egypt.
    ptown_trojans_1;660879 wrote:I would be more worried about the Israeli-Egyptian peace agreement. I doubt it will go away, but that is more probable to me than the closing or restricting the canal.

    Proplems with this peace agreement equals problems with the Suez Canal. Large amount of Egyptian troops moved into the Sinia dissolves the agreement and makes war very likely. I can see something like this as many Egyptians see it as a humiliation that they cannot place their own troops on a part of their own soil.
  • ptown_trojans_1
    Things are getting ugly as pro-Mubarack demonstrators are clashing with the protesters.

    Across the region, Jordan is still on edge and protesters in Syria are planning a Friday demonstration.
  • september63
    Interesting that as people are bashing one another in the head with objects, the military police stand by watching.
  • Footwedge
    Why on earth would Egypt hinder commerce in the Suez Canal? There is no logical rationale for doing so. As such, I don't understand the debate on this subject.
  • Al Bundy
    Footwedge;661873 wrote:Why on earth would Egypt hinder commerce in the Suez Canal? There is no logical rationale for doing so. As such, I don't understand the debate on this subject.

    No logical group would hinder commerce. If an irrational group like Muslim Brotherhood gains power, anything is possible.
  • FatHobbit
    Al Bundy;661948 wrote:No logical group would hinder commerce. If an irrational group like Muslim Brotherhood gains power, anything is possible.

    A new group might decide they want to make more money off of it though. Or only let certain countries use it.
  • ptown_trojans_1
    Al Bundy;661948 wrote:No logical group would hinder commerce. If an irrational group like Muslim Brotherhood gains power, anything is possible.

    I wouldn't call the Brotherhood irrational. They are not al Qaeda. They are not Hamas.
    They don't like Israel or the U.S., but would not be willing to sacrifice Egypt's future. The Brotherhood has really redefined itself since the 1990s. It is just everyone still equates itself with the 90s and support of terrorism. But, since 9/11, it has really split with the whole jihadi mindset or modern terrorism. The Brotherhood denounced 9/11, and has denounced all terror attack by al Qaeda against the West. It even denounced al Qaeda in Iraq.

    Also, the Egyptian Army-a secular organization-no matter what happens still holds a lot of power as it is very popular.
  • CenterBHSFan
    Interestingly enough, this morning on the radio, the host was talking about somebody from the MB encouraging war with Israel. Now, I wonder, if the MB is so benign, then the guy talking about war must be a fringe element? Or does that just dovetail into not liking them?
  • jhay78
    One man's informed opinion on the Muslim Brotherhood:

    http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/258419/fear-muslim-brotherhood-andrew-c-mccarthy?page=1

    Why Mubarak has behaved dictatorially:
    Sadat’s successor, Mubarak, is undeniably a tyrant who has kept emergency powers in force through the three decades since Sadat’s assassination. Any fair assessment, however, must concede that he has had his reasons. Egypt is not just plagued by economic stagnation and inequality; it has been brutalized by jihadist terror. It would be fair enough — though by no means completely convincing — for Riedel and others to argue that Mubarak’s reign has been overkill. It makes no sense, though, to ignore both the reason emergency powers were instituted in the first place and the myriad excuses jihadists have given Mubarak to maintain them.
    From 2008, the head of Egypt's MB praising Osama Bin Laden:

    http://www.investigativeproject.org/685/muslim-brotherhood-friend-or-foe-new-ipt-profile
    http://www.investigativeproject.org/1161/muslim-brotherhood-leader-encourages
  • jhay78
    Another good opinion on why this issue is not as simple as "Mubarak vs. democracy/freedom/etc."

    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/258717/mubarak-v-brotherhood/andrew-c-mccarthy
    In 2007 polling by the University of Maryland and World Public Opinion, three-quarters of Egyptians said they favor a “strict” application of sharia law in every Muslim country (half said they “strongly” favored it, the other quarter favored it “somewhat”). And while two-thirds approved of “democracy,” three-quarters also said they want to “keep Western values out of Islamic countries” — i.e., their conception of “democracy” is very different from Western democracy (with features like establishment of Islam as the state religion, installation of sharia as a principal source of law, the invalidation of laws that are inconsistent with sharia, etc.). Moreover, fully 92 percent of Egyptians said that the U.S. was trying to weaken and divide the Islamic world. That’s probably why 82 percent of them wanted U.S. forces withdrawn from all Muslim countries.
  • Hip Hop/Logicbomb
    Let the Egyptians decide their own fate, whatever it may be. The United States has helped foster our unfavorable position in the world by chasing the mighty $$ at all cost ( to hell with the collateral damage). The view that the world has of us cannot be undone this hate of us has been festering for decades. We need to cut off our aid to these countries, military and governments plain and simple!! We need to turn our concerns to our own issues and problem here in the states. Our funding and dabbling in the Middle-East is definately a huge part of our current debt problem as it cost 1 million dollars a year per soldier in our 2 ongoing wars, add in the money and arms that we send to these countries and it's no suprise why we are in the situation we are here at home. Wars are not cheap and dealing with currupt Nations just so they play nice with Israel is a dangerous game. Enuff is Enuff, these countries in there current state could give a damn about us, so why should we give a damn about them? The Middle East has always been, and will always be a bad place to do business.....Israel needs to learn how to stand by themselves, as our defense of them threatens our safety here at home.
  • I Wear Pants
    Who are we to tell a country how to behave? Especially if they become democratically elected.
  • O-Trap
    Hip Hop/Logicbomb;662414 wrote:The United States has helped foster our unfavorable position in the world by chasing the mighty $$ at all cost ( to hell with the collateral damage).
    When I read that, I thought of these guys.

  • ptown_trojans_1
    I'm not a fan of the Brotherhood and they are not supporters of the U.S. or Israel. However, I think it is a little wrong to equate them to al Qaeda or to assume that they will rise up and take control over the county. Also ,I think it is a stretch to automatically assume they can/ will take up arms against the Israelis. There are too many factions inside Egypt to let that occur.

    If you can find it online, I just finished a chapter in the book from West Point called "Self-Inflicted Wounds: Debates and Divisions withing al Qaeda and its Periphery." The chapter focused on the split between the Brotherhood and the global jihad movement. Yes, some members may support bin Ladin, but overall the two sides do not agree on much.
    http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/12/17/al_qaedas_self_inflicted_wounds
  • CenterBHSFan
    I Wear Pants;662419 wrote:Who are we to tell a country how to behave? Especially if they become democratically elected.
    Dammit Pants, haven't you remembered one single thing that Isadore taught you?!

    We are Imperialists, and don't forget it again :p
  • september63
    CenterBHSFan;662557 wrote:Dammit Pants, haven't you remembered one single thing that Isadore taught you?!

    We are Imperialists, and don't forget it again :p

    Really? It isnt our job to tell them how to behave. You are correct. The protesters there have now been surrounded by pro-gov supporters. This is a Dictator that has a plan to go down with a fight. The outgoing Governent has brought in armed supporters to overwelm the anti supporters. They are closing them in.
  • september63
    I Wear Pants;662419 wrote:Who are we to tell a country how to behave? Especially if they become democratically elected.

    Really? This guy has authored his own revolution. It is going on as we speak!! There is nothing peaceful about how Mubarik is going out.
  • I Wear Pants
    september63;662728 wrote:Really? This guy has authored his own revolution. It is going on as we speak!! There is nothing peaceful about how Mubarik is going out.
    Wait, which guy?
  • september63
    Mubarik has brought in supporters to surround the protesters. The military police are still under his direction. They are bashing heads in over there under the regime, and most of it is military against the protesters. They may get to a Democracy, but he will go down fighting before.