Something that I've been following since last week was the apparent "attack" by a malware virus called Stuxnet to an Iranian nuclear plant Bushehr and maybe other facilities.
The virus affected Iranian computers and spread to Pakistan, India, Indonesia and China. It is unclear if the virus directly affected the Bushehr facility, but the facility has been delayed by 3 months.
Now, two questions, who did it, and what are the implications?
The obvious answer and one put forth by this NYT article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/30/world/middleeast/30worm.html?ref=todayspaper
is Israel. A clever word "Myrthus" may be a clue.
But, I don't think the Israelis are that blunt or sly about it. That does go against typical Israeli behavior. And, it is the only evidence we have. Plus, I'm not sure they could do this, given the shear scale of the operation.
The U.S.is another option and we could have but I'm not sure.
Other options include, Russia, Saudi Arabia and even the UK and France who all have their own motives for slowing the Iranian program. The point is we don't know.
The second question is how does this change the game? How does this factor in possibly deterring Iran? How does possibly launching a virus (assuming it was a Western government), factor in Military options and diplomatic options?
Would a future attack, sort of the same type, be traceable by Iran? If they were attacked by a more sophisticated virus how would they respond? Would it be like a military attack to them, meaning they respond with force? Wouldf they blame the U.S. and Israel?
I think it brings in a whole host of questions to ask about deterrence and cyber warfare. I find it really interesting and an odd story.
Also, I just wrote something on it:
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/
Something that I've been following since last week was the apparent "attack" by a malware virus called Stuxnet to an Iranian nuclear plant Bushehr and maybe other facilities.